We won't find out for another few months how the Supreme Court will rule on a crucial case regarding Obamacare subsidies. But new maps from the Washington Center for Equitable Growth help illustrate just how much is at stake, showing which states would be hit hardest if the Supreme Court struck down the subsidies that help people afford coverage on insurance marketplaces.
Where people are eligible for ACA exchange subsidies
This map shows the distribution of people who are eligible to receive subsidies to help them buy insurance on ACA exchanges – specifically, families that do not have access to employer coverage and make between 138 and 400 percent of the Federal Poverty Level.
The darkest counties have the highest proportion of people eligible to receive insurance subsidies, often over 30 or 40 percent, while the lightest counties have the lowest proportion.
How a Supreme Court ruling would affect these exchange subsidies
The states in brown use federally run health care exchanges. If the Supreme Court rules that the text of the ACA does not allow for states using a federally run exchanges to receive subsidies, these people would lose critical financial assistance. The Urban Institute has argued that such a decision would leave 8.3 million more people uninsured.
The states in gray run their own exchanges and would not be impacted by the ruling, at least initially. Proponents of Obamacare believe that striking subsidies for the states in brown would make health care unaffordable for many people and undermine the ACA altogether.
For interactive versions of the maps that let you hover over the county to see information about it, visit the Washington Center for Equitable Growth website.