It's a return of a long-run historical trend. In the year 1,000, China and India accounted for two-thirds of global economic activity. The global economic center was firmly in the Middle East. It remained there for roughly 820 years before shifting to Europe with the advent of the Industrial Revolution, and then toward North America.
But East Asia’s stunning economic rise and urbanization in the last few decades, along with the growth of India and other emerging economies, has rapidly tugged the center back toward its origin. By 2025, the world’s economic center will be as far east as it was in 1,000 A.D., though substantially farther north, according to McKinsey's predictions.
The chart comes from a book published in May, “No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends,” by the directors of the McKinsey Global Institute, McKinsey & Company’s flagship think tank.
Republished courtesy of McKinsey & Company.