Since 2000, the median price of a home in counties carried by the former Democratic nominee has jumped from $138,000 to $250,000, an increase of 82 percent. In counties where Trump won, the price increased just 52 percent over the same period, from $101,000 to $154,000.
Homeowners in counties that went for Trump have had advantages, said Aaron Terrazas, a senior economist at Zillow. If the housing market in Clinton's territory has generated better returns, it has also been more volatile, with both big gains and major losses during the financial crisis.
Prices in counties that Clinton carried still have not completely recovered from their collapse of 29 percent during the crisis. Homes in counties carried by Trump lost only 18 percent of their value, and prices have since recovered.
“They weren't necessarily left behind,” Terrazas said of the places where Trump won. “They're different. They’re places that didn’t get swept up in the boom-year frenzy. They didn’t get devastated by the crash-year bust.”
One especially striking contrast was between those counties where voters supported President Obama in 2012 and then Trump this year, and those places where voters went for former Republican nominee Mitt Romney in 2012 and then for Clinton.
Obama–Trump counties were no different from the other counties that Trump won, at least in terms of typical housing prices. Romney–Clinton counties were especially affluent, though, with a median home price above $300,000 — twice that of the typical county carried by Trump. These well-heeled places included traditionally conservative communities such as California's Orange County, Utah's Salt Lake County and Georgia's Gwinnett County, which is outside Atlanta.
Today, homeowners in counties that Trump carried are in a slightly worse position financially. Thirteen percent of them are underwater. In Clinton's territory, the figure is 11 percent.
Those numbers are broadly consistent with previous analysis of how the housing market relates to Trump's appeal. This fall, a pair of researchers at Gallup found that people who were otherwise similar in terms of age, education, race and other factors were more likely to view Trump favorably if they lived in Zip codes with less affordable mortgages.