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The Washington Post

When pro-Obama campaigners approached thousands of would-be voters in Wisconsin in 2008, the effort has surprising results--in helping John McCain.

The post-2102 narrative had a circular logic to it: Obama won because of his superior campaign, and we know that his campaign was superior because he won.

I'd bet that a careful study of media mentions of a candidate's "momentum" would find that they tend to presage that candidate losing altitude in the polls. That's because while "momentum" may not be real, reversion to the mean is.

  • Ezra Klein
  • ·
  • Nov 2, 2012
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