So what is social media saying about this election? Simplify360, a social media analytics firm based in India, recently crunched the numbers on 100 days of Indian social media (between Jan. 1 and April 9) and released a full report. Two findings from the report are particularly interesting.
Corruption is the major issue online
The two biggest names – Modi and Gandhi – are not the most talked about on social media
There's an important caveat to note here: Far from everyone in India is an Internet user, let alone a social media user. In 2012, the World Bank estimated that 12.6 percent of India's population was on the Internet, and Facebook recently reported it had 100 million users in India – a huge number for sure, but far short of 815 million.
As such, India's social media users probably lean in a particular way – young, tech-savvy, urban, and educated. For these people, corruption is a big deal. For rural workers or those with lower incomes, inflation may well be a bigger issue (hence why the price of an onion has been such a major political issue over the past few years).
That point also helps explain why Arvind Kejriwal dominates his better known rivals, Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi, online. Kejriwal, a former civil servant, formed the Aam Aadmi Party (Common Man Party) less than two years, but the party has been able to capitalize on an anti-corruption platform (Kejriwal himself won praise for refusing official cars with flashing red-beacon lights and a government bungalow).
Rival parties, in particular the Congress Party, have struggled to keep up with the social media momentum of the Common Man Party, which was in many ways born of an online anti-corruption drive. And Kejriwal's domination of the conversation isn't limited to social media: Live Mint recently reported that 28 percent of prime time coverage on top news channels went to Kejriwal, as opposed to 24 percent for Modi and less than 5 percent for Gandhi.
That momentum might explain some of the cruder attempts at social media campaigning we're seeing right now. For example, at the time of writing the Twitter account for Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears to be sending a Vine to every single user who mentions "Modi" on the service:
There's clearly a limit to how much effect social media can have this election: Despite the Common Man Party's social media impetus, BJP has been predicted to win a small majority in India's parliament.