Nobody can predict this election. Here’s why.

By almost any measure, 2020 is a very different kind of election.

A pandemic. A recession. Social protests in multiple cities that are entering their fourth month. Record numbers out of work, and record highs in the stock market. Social distancing in offices, restaurants, even in some homes. The oldest nominee in history. A president talking about ignoring the results.

I’ve made my share of election forecasts. But nearly everything about this race is so different, which should make everyone think twice about their assumptions as the voting begins. Here are seven factors that make it extremely difficult to predict what’s going to happen in November:

1

It’s been 100 years since we’ve held a mid-pandemic election. It’s impossible to know how voters will react.

Covid-19 has taken an unprecedented toll on the people of the United States. According to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates, more than 5 million people have tested positive for the novel coronavirus; and the death toll may surpass 200,000 in September. Hospitalizations are up in many places, and as the caseload increases, many more cities and counties will struggle to deal with a new wave of sickness and death.

The pandemic has exacted a psychological price. Roughly two-thirds of all Americans are worried that they or someone in their family will be exposed to the virus. The virus is omnipresent: It colors every conversation and dominates daily life.

2

The coronavirus has damaged the economy, and a damaged economy is usually bad for incumbents.

The pandemic has also done incalculable damage to the economy. As soon as lockdowns began, the unemployment rate increased by 10 percentage points. It has decreased somewhat since, but the damage is lasting: Many retail businesses across the country are operating at only partial capacity, and entire industries may never recover.

The physical, psychological and economic consequences of the pandemic have altered the normal election climate. In a typical presidential race, a recession like this would probably send an incumbent packing; other issues, particularly cultural factors, would likely not matter. But Americans are still giving President Trump decent marks on his handling of the economy, and the third-quarter economic numbers could show a rapid rebound. At the same time, disagreements about immigration, political correctness and racism have kept cultural issues front and center. This mix of economic pain, the possibility of late-breaking relief, physical danger and cultural conflict makes this election unusually difficult to predict.

3

The country is seeing a months-long wave of protests, and that has made everyone more focused on race.

Amid the pandemic, Americans are experiencing a historic period of social unrest. The death of George Floyd at the hands of Minneapolis police fueled nationwide demonstrations against racism and police brutality, as well as associated counter-protests. Ordinarily, protests don’t garner much sympathy: Sixty percent viewed the 1963 civil rights rallies unfavorably; Occupy Wall Street had the support of only 44 percent of Americans in 2011. But according to a July Gallup poll, this movement may be the exception: Almost two-thirds supported this summer’s protests.

The killings of Black men and women — and the subsequent protests — have increased awareness of racial discrimination. Over the past six years, many White voters, especially White Democrats, shifted left on racial issues as they saw the footage and read reports of police killings of Philando Castile, Eric Garner, Michael Brown and other men and women. This new understanding of police brutality and systemic racism — as well as backlash against more violent protests — is reshaping our politics, and nobody knows which trends will endure.

4

Even the most admired institutions — including the police and the military — are losing public confidence.

A 50-year decline in trust continues. Most Americans say they don’t trust any branch of government. Non-governmental institutions have shed credibility, too. The media is widely scorned and distrusted. Organized religion continues its long decline. Even the police and military — revered by most of the public for decades — have seen some erosion in their numbers as well. We are a country with few establishment heroes.

5

Satisfaction with the country’s direction is sagging.

At the same time, Americans are disappointed in the state of the nation. In the latest Gallup poll, only 13 percent said they were “satisfied” with the direction of the country. That’s on par with earlier moments of economic agony and political conflict. Frustration with the pandemic, our institutions and institutionalized racism has united Americans in widespread discontent. It’s not clear who benefits from this unhappiness: Joe Biden could effectively seize on it, like Bill Clinton did in 1992, or fail to capitalize on it, like Mitt Romney in 2012.

6

Turnout is scrambled as the mailbox becomes the ballot box.

This election will be conducted far differently from any in the past — on Sept. 4, North Carolina will send out its first absentee ballots, and many states will quickly follow. It’s impossible to predict how many citizens will vote by mail, but a historic 83 percent of Americans will have the opportunity to do so. These changes could transform the election from a single day into a months-long slugfest of debating, voting and counting — and court challenges. That adds uncertainty, as nobody has polled a national election where so much of the vote was cast before Election Day or imagined an aftermath that could take weeks or longer to sort out.

7

Trump is underperforming his predecessors. But there’s plenty of time for the race to shift.

For most of the past three years, the president’s approval rating has hovered in the low-40 percent range. But Trump won with weak numbers before. At this time in 2016, fewer than 40 percent of voters viewed him favorably. Today, he enjoys the irreducible support of 4 in every 10 voters. Biden is personally much more popular than Hillary Clinton was; Trump is having trouble winning over voters who disapprove of him personally.

The basic math is simple: Voters don’t like how Trump is handling the coronavirus pandemic; they dislike how he deals with racial issues; and his popularity on economic issues isn’t yet translating into enough votes to win. But presidential contests have shifted dramatically after Labor Day over the past generation. What looks certain on Aug. 1 is often long forgotten by Oct. 1. And none would argue, after the past few elections, that polls are perfect.

Everything about 2020 has been unimaginable so far. Why would we expect that to change now?

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