Republicans have adopted a three-pronged strategy to oppose President Biden and his agenda: Distraction (Oh, look, Dr. Seuss!), demonization (Socialism!) and denial (White House staff is really in charge, not Biden!).
Meanwhile, Republicans have moved from the “big lie” that the election was stolen to a big voter-suppression crusade to big and farcical recounts. (As for the recounts, didn’t they boot Rep. Liz Cheney from her leadership position in the party for focusing too much on the 2020 election?) They devote much of their TV and social media opportunities condemning “woke corporations” (apparently they do not understand that businesses act in self-interest when they support democracy) or “critical race theory” (which they cannot define but know they are against because it robs White Americans of their claim to be the true victims of discrimination).
Naturally, media coverage of Republicans has focused on the internecine battles between, on one side, rational Republicans, such as Cheney and Rep. Adam Kinzinger (Ill.), and on the other, MAGA toadies, such as House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) and Rep. Elise Stefanik (N.Y.). Republicans are fighting one another and vaguely defined cultural demons while Biden pushes forward on an agenda with popular items, such as child tax credits and infrastructure.
So how is all that working out for Republicans? Not all that well. In the most recent Quinnipiac poll, for example, Democrats lead Republicans in the 2022 generic congressional poll by a healthy 9 points. In the most recent Morning Consult-Politico poll, Republicans in Congress have a net favorability rating of -19 (35 percent favorable vs. 54 percent unfavorable); Democrats have a +2 net favorability (47 percent favorable vs. 45 percent unfavorable). Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s poll average gives Biden a +14 net approval.
Why would a party, which just lost the White House and its Senate majority, continue to act in ways that defy its self-interest? In part, Republicans avert their eyes from bad polling news. They ignore data showing that Republican Party affiliation is declining. They refuse to grapple with data showing that the White, non-college-educated portion of the electorate is falling as groups hostile to the party (e.g., the non-religiously affiliated, young voters, Asian American and Pacific Islander voters) grab a larger share of the electorate.
Republicans choose to seek solace in voter suppression schemes, which will not necessarily benefit them. (As the Associated Press reported, these legislative gambits might deter rural and elderly voters, part of the GOP’s base, from voting while they enrage and mobilize the Democratic base.) And Republicans rely on the mainstream media’s assumption that the party in the White House inevitably loses seats in the midterms (ignoring elections in 1998 and 2002, when popular presidents helped their parties pick up seats).
Most of all, elected Republicans, like their supporters, increasingly reside in a right-wing media bubble, which helps confirm their beliefs that the country is outraged by a socialist agenda and in a frenzy about cultural and racial memes. Living in a right-wing world of make-believe might be emotionally gratifying, but it does not prepare the party to win elections in the real world.
Republicans’ rhetoric might be odious, their assault on democracy irresponsible and their political thinking delusional. But Republicans’ approach might also be entirely counterproductive. So far, the poll data shows they are doing a bang-up job of alienating everyone but MAGA cultists. That’s no way to win elections.
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