Republicans are pretending to be very, very angry about President Biden’s newly-announced plans to pursue infrastructure and jobs proposals on two tracks — one bipartisan, the other via a simple majority “reconciliation” vote.
In case any Democrats are tempted to take this bait, don’t. The only response to GOP anger is for Democrats to remain solidly unified, though this situation also illustrates how challenging this will prove.
Biden and House Democratic leaders have announced that they will not pass a bipartisan Senate bill on infrastructure — one in keeping with the newly-reached bipartisan deal — until the Senate completes a second reconciliation package advancing progressive priorities.
In response, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) has now erupted in fake-outrage to Politico:
“I’m not doing that. That’s extortion! I’m not going to do that. The Dems are being told you can’t get your bipartisan work product passed unless you sign on to what the left wants, and I’m not playing that game.”
Meanwhile, a senior GOP aide told Politico that in announcing this two-track strategy, Biden “did real damage” to the possibility of passing the bipartisan bill.
This line was also voiced by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who insisted that Democrats are showing their intention to “hold the bipartisan agreement hostage” to getting reconciliation done.
The clear threat here is that Democrats must drop plans to pass a reconciliation package or forget about getting a bipartisan package first. This is empty bluster sitting atop a pile of baloney.
Nothing but nonsense
Republicans have long known that Democrats would converge on this endgame. Indeed, Democrats publicly vowed for months to proceed on “two tracks.”
While working toward a bipartisan compromise on bricks-and-mortar infrastructure, Democrats would craft a reconciliation package containing Biden’s other priorities: Child supports, paid family and medical leave, and investments in education, health care and climate.
If the bipartisan deal were reached (as it now has been), Democrats would pass the reconciliation piece by a simple majority. If the bipartisan deal falls apart, they’d pass everything that way. Republicans have always known that even with a bipartisan deal, Democrats will do a lot more alone.
Now Republicans think they can bluff Democrats into killing a whole host of their most cherished priorities as a precondition for their support for something way more modest that largely consists of previously existing highway and covid-19 relief funding? No way.
This is why the GOP threat is an empty one. If Republicans do sink the bipartisan deal, Democrats still have the option of passing a large package by themselves, via reconciliation.
Unity at all costs
But still, this will require Democrats to remain united. The GOP strategy seems designed to spook moderates — the threat that Republicans might pull their support is supposed to turn them against the left and the idea of doing something via reconciliation.
But if Republicans sink the bipartisan bill, it’s obvious that the Democratic strategy is only their pretext and they would have done so anyway. And if moderates do turn on the idea of reconciliation, this will alienate the left, imperiling passage of the bipartisan bill to begin with.
At the same time, if progressives oppose the bipartisan bill and that’s one reason it fails, that will give moderate senators like Sens. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) a way to walk away from doing a reconciliation-only package later.
This is why Biden and House Democrats are vowing to pass the bipartisan bill only once the Senate completes a reconciliation one — because keeping the left on board for the bipartisan bill is crucial.
And from the other side, if enough progressive senators support the bipartisan bill to enable it to pass the Senate, the moderates should be expected to support a robust reconciliation package.
In the end, for this tightrope walk to work, if the bipartisan bill fails Republicans alone must be seen as the ones who killed it. That has a chance of keeping Manchin and Sinema on board for a big reconciliation bill.
Here’s the big picture. For the party to remain unified behind this strategy, it will be important to see both bills as part of one grand effort. And, crucially, the reconciliation piece must not be seen as a series of priorities that only the left wants.
Indeed, a big reconciliation package — whether with a bipartisan bill, or alone — is central to the success of Biden and the whole Democratic Party.
The stakes are extraordinarily high
For one thing, getting this done will decide the core question of whether Biden and Democrats use their majorities to act ambitiously on climate change. As a good New York Times piece details, reconciliation will be the only way to get a national “clean energy standard” that will transition power companies to generating electricity only by renewable energy, as well as massive investments enabling those alternate sources to keep expanding.
What’s more, getting a reconciliation package will also be critical to ensuring an equitable recovery at a time of great public awareness of the dire need to rebalance the economy. That opportunity can’t be squandered.
Democrats keep telling us that passing a robust legislative agenda is central to defusing rising authoritarianism and showing that democracy still works. And so, while the Republican threats are empty ones, to succeed, Democrats will have to hang together. At stake is a lot more than just their majorities.