Opinion False, toxic Sept. 11 conspiracy theories are still widespread today
Today, 9/11 conspiracy theories remain widespread: 1 in 6 Americans think Bush administration officials knew about the attacks and intentionally let them happen so they could wage war in the Middle East. Others go further, arguing that the government planned and executed the attacks.
These groundless theories — commonly known as “Trutherism” — raise important questions. How does a conspiracy theory take hold? And why, 20 years after the attack, does it endure?
The birth of a conspiracy theory
Trutherism emerged almost immediately after the attacks. By late 2001, some anti-Bush protesters were carrying signs saying “Bush Knew” at rallies. In 2002, Democratic Rep. Cynthia McKinney of Georgia called for an investigation into “What did this administration know, and when did they know it?,” asking “What do they have to hide?”
Mark Fenster, a University of Florida legal scholar, told us that Truthers initially were a mix of everyday conspiracy theorists who tend to believe any number of dark narratives, and liberals who distrusted Bush. Not even the release of the 585-page report of the bipartisan 9/11 Commission, detailing the intelligence failures that led to the attack, slowed the movement.
July 2006: People in the federal
government either assisted in the
9/11 attacks or took no action to
stop the attacks because they
wanted the United States to go to
war in the Middle East
Republicans
Democrats
Very likely
Very likely
23%
5%
13%
Somewhat
likely
82%
29%
Somewhat
likely
Not likely
Not likely
49%
Notes: Percentages may noy add up to 100 due to
rounding
Source: Ohio University Scripps Journalism School
July 2006: People in the federal government
either assisted in the 9/11 attacks or took no
action to stop the attacks because they
wanted the United States to go to war in the
Middle East
Republicans
Democrats
Very likely
23%
5%
Very likely
13%
Somewhat likely
82%
Not likely
29%
Somewhat likely
Not likely
49%
Notes: Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding
Source: Ohio University Scripps Journalism School, Carl Stempel
July 2006: People in the federal government either assisted in the 9/11 attacks or
took no action to stop the attacks because they wanted the United States to go to
war in the Middle East
Democrats
Very likely
Somewhat likely
Not likely
23%
29%
49%
Republicans
Very likely
Not likely
5%
13%
82%
Somewhat likely
Notes: Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding
Source: Ohio University Scripps Journalism School, Carl Stempel
In a variety of polls in the first decade after 9/11, Democrats were more likely than Republicans to believe in Trutherism. In a 2006 Ohio University survey, 51 percent of Democrats signed on to some form of Trutherism, while only 18 percent of Republicans did the same. The survey is imperfect — it doesn’t include a “somewhat unlikely” option, and other polls show much higher percentages that “don’t know” — but it demonstrates that Trutherism had a solid foothold on the left.
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Meanwhile, truther communities cropped up online and believers met at conferences across the country. A new class of “experts” also emerged. Fenster explained that academics such as physicist Steven Jones and theologian David Ray Griffin, as well as longtime conspiracy theorists including Alex Jones, made the case for Trutherism in books, broadcasts and lectures. Within a few years, an entire Trutherism industry had formed.
6%
September 2009: Do you think
President George W. Bush
intentionally allowed the 9/11
attacks to take place because he
wanted the United States to go to
war in the Middle East?
Democrats
Republicans
6%
Yes
25%
Yes
Not sure
4%
Not sure
12%
63%
No
90%
No
Source: Public Policy Polling
September 2009: Do you think President
George W. Bush intentionally allowed the
9/11 attacks to take place because he
wanted the United States to go to war in the
Middle East?
Democrats
Yes
No
63%
12%
25%
Not sure
Republicans
No
Yes
6%
90%
Not sure 4%
Source: Public Policy Polling
September 2009: Do you think President George W. Bush intentionally allowed
the 9/11 attacks to take place because he wanted the United States to go to war
in the Middle East?
Democrats
Yes
Not sure
No
63%
25%
12%
Republicans
Yes
No
6%
4%
90%
Not sure
Source: Public Policy Polling
Polls varied in their exact wording and results, and some voters might have been “expressively responding” — that is, telling pollsters they believed in Trutherism as a way to express deep disapproval with Bush. But by the time Barack Obama took office, at least a quarter of Democrats claimed to believe in Trutherism.
Trump and the changing face of Trutherism
After Bush left office, conspiracy-theory enthusiasts found new obsessions, such as Obama’s birth certificate. But in 2016, amid the rise of Donald Trump (and eight years of Obama as president), Trutherism became more prevalent among Republicans.
By the time Trump took office, the partisan divide on Trutherism had nearly disappeared.
December 2016: The U.S.
government helped plan the
attacks of 9/11
Democrats
Republicans
Definitely
true
Definitely
true
9%
5%
17%
Probably
true
16%
Probably
true
26%
24%
Probably
not true
Probably
not true
Definitely
not true
49%
55%
Definitely
not true
Source: The Economist/YouGov poll
December 2016: The U.S. government
helped plan the attacks of 9/11
Democrats
Republicans
9%
Definitely true
5%
Definitely true
17%
Probably true
Probably true
16%
Probably
not true
Probably
not true
26%
24%
Definitely
not true
49%
55%
Definitely
not true
Source: The Economist/YouGov poll
December 2016: The U.S. government helped plan the attacks of 9/11
Democrats
Definitely true
Probably not true
Definitely not true
26%
9%
49%
17%
Probably true
Republicans
Definitely true
Probably not true
Definitely not true
5%
16%
24%
55%
Probably true
Source: The Economist/YouGov poll
One reason: Once Trump took over the GOP, Bush became a less polarizing figure.
George W. Bush’s net
favorability
+40%
Iraq invasion
20
Donald Trump enters
presidential race
0
−20
Bush’s presidency ends
−40
2003
2010
2018
Notes: Net favorability is the difference between
the percentage who viewed Bush favorably and
the percentage who viewed him unfavorably.
Every dot is a CNN poll.
Source: CNN polls
George W. Bush’s net favorability
+40%
Iraq invasion
20
Donald Trump enters
presidential race
0
−20
Bush’s presidency ends
−40
2003
2010
2018
Notes: Net favorability is the difference between the percentage
who viewed Bush favorably and the percentage who viewed him
unfavorably. Every dot is a CNN poll.
Source: CNN polls
George W. Bush’s net favorability
+40%
Iraq invasion
20
Donald Trump enters
presidential race
0
−20
Bush’s presidency ends
−40
2003
2010
2018
Notes: Net favorability is the difference between the percentage who viewed Bush favorably and the percentage who
viewed him unfavorably. Every dot is a CNN poll.
Source: CNN polls
To some on the left, Bush was vastly preferable to Trump. Half of Democrats viewed Bush favorably by January 2018.
Trump spent months pillorying Bush during the 2016 primary campaign, and Bush occasionally made thinly veiled critiques of Trump’s immigration policy and political style. These conflicts left a mark: 1 in 5 Republicans viewed Bush unfavorably by 2018.
Meanwhile, Trump embraced conspiracy theories around election fraud, Obama’s citizenship and other topics. And, although Trump didn’t endorse Sept. 11 Trutherism specifically, he tiptoed around the edges of it and elevated leading Truthers such as Jones.
Conspiracy theories existed in both parties before Trump became the Republican standard-bearer. But Trump brought conspiratorial thinking into the mainstream, encouraging his followers — explicitly or implicitly — to trust no one else and follow him down the rabbit hole.
A new forever conspiracy theory?
Twenty years on, Trutherism remains substantial. One in 6 Americans — including 19 percent of Democrats and 14 percent of Republicans — believe in some form of the conspiracy theory.
September 2020: Senior officials
in the Bush administration had
advance notice of the Sept. 11
attacks, but refused to stop them
because of their desire to launch a
war in Iraq
Republicans
Democrats
Completely
accurate
Completely
accurate
4%
5%
Mosty
accurate
10%
Mosty
accurate
14%
28%
Not sure
34%
Not sure
Mostly not
accurate
16%
20%
Mostly not
accurate
41%
Completely
not accurate
26%
Completely
not accurate
Source: Daniel Cox, American Enterprise Institute,
author calculations
September 2020: Senior officials in the
Bush administration had advance notice of
the Sept. 11 attacks, but refused to stop
them because of their desire to launch a war
in Iraq
Republicans
Democrats
Completely
accurate
Completely
accurate
4%
5%
Mosty accurate
Mosty accurate
10%
14%
Not sure
28%
Not sure
34%
16%
Mostly not
accurate
20%
Mostly not
accurate
41%
Completely
not accurate
26%
Completely
not accurate
Source: Daniel Cox, American Enterprise Institute, author
calculations
September 2020: Senior officials in the Bush administration had advance notice
of the Sept. 11 attacks, but refused to stop them because of their desire to launch a
war in Iraq
Democrats
Mostly not
accurate
Completely
accurate
Completely
not accurate
Not sure
5%
14%
34%
20%
26%
Mosty accurate
Republicans
Mostly not
accurate
Completely
not accurate
Completely
accurate
Not sure
16%
41%
4%
10%
28%
Mostly accurate
Source: Daniel Cox, American Enterprise Institute, author calculations
To be sure, Republicans are currently more supportive of dangerous conspiracy theories, such as election fraud and fearmongering about coronavirus vaccines. But the data on Trutherism shows there is an audience for conspiracy theories in both parties. A sizable subset of voters are prepared to believe things for which there is no evidence. America will have to cope with that for years to come.