In two weeks, Virginia will elect a new governor — and nobody knows who it will be. Polls show a tight race between former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe and Republican businessman Glenn Youngkin. The race has broken state fundraising records. And the Cook Political Report recently revised its race rating from “Leans Democratic” to “Toss-up.”
Opinion Virginia Democrats are worried. They should be.
Youngkin and McAuliffe each have reason to think they will win. Republicans have the wind at their backs this year as congressional Democrats dither and President Biden’s approval ratings slump. McAuliffe should benefit from demographic and political shifts that have pushed the state from red to blue.
A careful inventory of these strengths favors McAuliffe — but only marginally.
Youngkin has one key advantage in this race: timing.
Virginia’s gubernatorial contests always take place a year after the presidential election — and the party that loses the presidency often performs well in Virginia’s governor race. As others have pointed out, in 10 out of the last 11 gubernatorial elections in Virginia, the party that won the presidency lost Virginia’s governorship a year later.
The party that lost the White
House usually wins in Virginia
When a Republican is in the White House,
Democrats often win in Virginia:
D+9
2017
D+6
2005
2001
D+5
D+0.4
1989
D+10
1985
D+7
1981
When a Democrat is in the White House,
Republicans often win in Virginia:
D+3
2013
R+17
2009
R+13
1997
R+17
1993
1977
R+13
Source: David Leip’s Election Atlas.
The party that lost the White House
usually wins in Virginia
When a Republican is in the White House, Democrats
often win in Virginia:
D+9
2017
D+6
2005
2001
D+5
D+0.4
1989
D+10
1985
D+7
1981
When a Democrat is in the White House, Republicans
often win in Virginia:
D+3
2013
R+17
2009
R+13
1997
1993
R+17
1977
R+13
Source: David Leip’s Election Atlas.
The party that lost the White House usually wins in Virginia
The party that lost the White House usually wins in Virginia
When a Republican is in the White House, Democrats often win in Virginia:
When a Republican is in the White House, Democrats often win in Virginia:
D+9
D+9
2017
2017
D+6
D+6
2005
2005
D+5
D+5
2001
2001
D+0.4
D+0.4
1989
1989
1985
1985
D+10
D+10
1981
1981
D+7
D+7
When a Democrat is in the White House, Republicans often win in Virginia:
D+3
D+3
2013
2013
R+17
R+17
2009
2009
R+13
R+13
1997
1997
1993
1993
R+17
R+17
1977
1977
R+13
R+13
Source: David Leip’s Election Atlas.
Source: David Leip’s Election Atlas.
This pattern is neither mystical nor coincidental — it’s part of a predictable political cycle. As a new president advances his agenda, he often energizes his opponents, placates his base and alienates swing voters.
Presidents usually lose
popularity between inauguration
and Virginia’s governor race
Reagan
first term
Reagan
second term
Carter
+60%
30
0
-30
0
300
Days since inauguration
Clinton
first term
Clinton
first term
G.H.W. Bush
+60%
30
0
-30
0
300
Days since inauguration
G.W. Bush
first term
G.W. Bush
second term
Obama
first term
+60%
30
0
-30
0
300
Days since inauguration
Obama
second term
Biden
Trump
+60%
30
0
-30
0
300
Days since inauguration
Note: Net approval is the difference between
approval and disapproval rating.
Sources: RealClearPolitics. New York Times,
FiveThirtyEight, Huffington Post Pollster,
various pollsters.
Presidents usually lose popularity
between inauguration and Virginia’s
governor race
Reagan
first term
Reagan
second term
Carter
+60%
30
0
-30
0
300
Days since inauguration
Clinton
first term
Clinton
first term
G.H.W. Bush
+60%
30
0
-30
0
300
Days since inauguration
G.W. Bush
first term
Obama
first term
G.W. Bush
second term
+60%
30
0
-30
0
300
Days since inauguration
Obama
second term
Trump
Biden
+60%
30
0
-30
0
300
Days since inauguration
Note: Net approval is the difference between approval and
disapproval rating.
Sources: RealClearPolitics. New York Times, FiveThirtyEight,
Huffington Post Pollster, various pollsters.
Presidents usually lose popularity between inauguration
and Virginia’s governor race
Carter
Reagan
first term
Reagan
second term
G.H.W. Bush
+60%
30
0
-30
0
300
Days since inauguration
G.W. Bush
first term
Clinton
first term
Clinton
first term
G.W. Bush
second term
+60%
30
0
-30
0
300
Days since inauguration
Obama
first term
Obama
second term
Trump
Biden
+60%
30
0
-30
0
300
Days since inauguration
Note: Net approval is the difference between approval and disapproval rating.
Sources: RealClearPolitics. New York Times, FiveThirtyEight, Huffington Post Pollster, various pollsters.
Robert “Bob” Holsworth, a Virginia public policy consultant who moderated a debate between McAuliffe and Youngkin, summed up the situation this way: “The Democrats are perceived as the incumbent party. To some extent, particularly among Independents, or people who are just frustrated with the political class in general — they’re taking this out a little bit on the Democrats.”
That’s good news for Youngkin. He can capitalize on Biden’s falling ratings, and attempt to attract swing voters — or just count on discontented Democrats to stay home.
Youngkin has tried to keep both the centrist GOP and Trump wings of the party behind him. He wooed Donald Trump’s voters in the fold by half-embracing the former president and opposing vaccine mandates, while emphasizing his successful business career and mild manners to suburbanites. Says Quentin Kidd, pollster for Christopher Newport University, “For a suburban mom, Glenn Youngkin doesn’t generate that ire the way Trump did.”
Youngkin’s biggest obstacle: he’s running in Virginia. And in Virginia, every Democratic candidate starts with three advantages.
The first: the D.C. metro area.
Votes for each party in each
region
Democratic
1 million
D.C. suburbs
Outside
major metros
500K
Virginia
Beach
Richmond
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Republican
1 million
Outside
major metros
D.C. suburbs
500K
Virginia Beach
Richmond
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Note: Metro divisions are defined using 2020
CBSA boundaries.
Sources: Dave Leip’s Election Atlas, Office of
Management and Budget, author calculations.
Votes for each party in each region
Democratic
Republican
1 million
D.C. suburbs
Outside
major metros
Outside
major metros
D.C. suburbs
500K
Virginia
Beach
Virginia Beach
Richmond
Richmond
0
1980
2000
2020
1980
2000
2020
Note: Metro divisions are defined using 2020 CBSA boundaries.
Sources: Dave Leip’s Election Atlas, Office of Management and
Budget, author calculations.
Votes for each party in each region
Democratic
Republican
1 million
D.C. suburbs
Outside
major metros
D.C. suburbs
Outside
major metros
500K
Virginia
Beach
Virginia Beach
Richmond
Richmond
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Note: Metro divisions are defined using 2020 CBSA boundaries.
Sources: Dave Leip’s Election Atlas, Office of Management and Budget, author calculations.
In 1980, a quarter of Virginia voters lived in what’s now the D.C. metro area, and they voted for Ronald Reagan over Jimmy Carter by a 21 point margin. By 2020, more than a third of Virginians lived in the region, and they voted for Joe Biden over Trump by a 31-point margin. These voters turned Virginia blue — and if McAuliffe holds onto them, he’ll win the state.
The second: The state’s demographics match up with Democrats’ strengths.
Almost 40 percent of Virginians have a college degree. Black voters — the most reliably Democratic demographic — make up 20 percent of the population. Latinos, a swing group, comprise only 10 percent. That’s a good fit for the modern Democratic Party: Black voters, along with college-educated Whites, are the Democratic base, while Latinos are trending Republican.
Additionally, many Virginians work in the federal government or for a private business that relies on the government. These voters may be unreceptive to Republican anti-government messages. According to Holsworth, “This was part of Trump’s problem in Virginia. If you think about the message that worked in so many other states — that he was going to ‘Drain the Swamp’ in Washington — this is just seen as a direct assault on the Northern Virginia economy.”
Percent of employed civilians,
age 16+, working for the federal
government
20% or more
D.C.
0
Source: American Community Survey, five-year
vestimates, 2019.
Percent of employed civilians, age 16+,
working for the federal government
20% or more
D.C.
0
Source: American Community Survey, five-year estimates, 2019.
Percent of employed civilians, age 16+, working for the federal government
20% or more
D.C.
10
0
Source: American Community Survey, five-year estimates, 2019.
Youngkin wants to present himself as a kinder, gentler Republican and plays down the anti-government rhetoric upstate. But many Virginians won’t vote for an anti-government candidate, regardless of how friendly he seems.
McAuliffe’s third key advantage: polarization. Virginians were once willing to vote for one party’s presidential candidate, while supporting other candidates for governor, Senate or House. Now, voters are much less interested in crossing party lines and splitting their tickets.
Ticket splitting — voting for one
party for president and another
down-ballot — has declined
More
ticket
splitting
Each dot represents a
district in Virginia.
Districts with more ticket-
splitters are higher up.
40%
Ticket
splitting
has been
decreasing.
20
0
Less
splitting
’04
’08
’12
’16
’20
Notes: Ticket splitting level is defined as the
difference between the House Republican margin
and the Republican presidential candidate’s
margin in that district. Uncontested seats are
omitted.
Sources: Daily Kos Elections, Clerk of the U.S.
House, author calculations.
Ticket splitting — voting for one party for
president and another down-ballot — has
declined
More
ticket
splitting
Each dot represents a district
in Virginia. Districts with more
ticket-splitters are higher up.
40%
30
Ticket splitting
has been
decreasing.
20
10
0
Less
splitting
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
Notes: Ticket splitting level is defined as the difference between
the House Republican margin and the Republican presidential
candidate’s margin in that district. Uncontested seats are
omitted.
Sources: Daily Kos Elections, Clerk of the U.S. House, author
calculations.
Ticket splitting — voting for one party for president and
another down-ballot — has declined
More
ticket
splitting
Each dot represents a district
in Virginia. Districts with more
ticket-splitters are higher up.
40%
30
20
Ticket splitting has been decreasing.
10
0
Less
splitting
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
Notes: Ticket splitting level is defined as the difference between the House Republican margin and the Republican
presidential candidate’s margin in that district. Uncontested seats are omitted.
Sources: Daily Kos Elections, Clerk of the U.S. House, author calculations.
This trend is great for McAuliffe. The Democratic base is simply bigger than the GOP base in Virginia. If Democrats turn out and stay loyal — both of which are big IFs — Youngkin may find it difficult to put together a majority.
McAuliffe has a very slight advantage because he has a “D” next to his name — and because Trump’s brand is toxic in Virginia.
Both candidates know that. Youngkin still professes loyalty to Trump, but keeps him at an arm’s length: He recently skipped a Virginia rally hosted by Trump and his former adviser Stephen K. Bannon. McAuliffe, on the other hand, is embracing the most popular Democrats. He’ll soon campaign with Barack Obama, Stacy Abrams and Jill Biden — while a struggling Biden stays on the sidelines.
If McAuliffe emerges victorious, Democrats should still pay close attention to the margin. A narrow victory in a blue state like Virginia would be a sign that voters are souring on Democrats a year into Biden’s presidency. And if Youngkin wins, Republicans will gain a blueprint for a majority beyond Virginia.