The Democrats have a Latino voter problem.
Opinion As Latino voters shift right, here’s where Democrats will be hit hardest
By David Byler
July 11, 2022 at 8:00 a.m. EDT
There are many possible explanations for the change, and more than one of them may be correct: Trump won Latino converts by emphasizing the economy and soft-pedaling immigration in his 2020 campaign. Ideologically conservative Latinos are moving toward their natural political allies. Biden is taking the blame for inflation, a bread-and-butter issue of particular importance to Latinos. Republicans are pouring money and manpower into “community centers” in heavily Latino areas. All these developments give reason to think that the GOP may hold on to many of their newfound voters.
So if Democrats fail to make up ground — or lose more — with Latino voters, where would it hurt most?
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Latinos make up a notable chunk of the electorate in many states and districts across the country. But two areas — the Southwest and the big states — show how a Latino surge would help Republicans play both offense and defense.
The Southwest: a potential GOP gold mine
If Democrats lose support from Latinos, the GOP will have a huge opportunity to play offense in the Senate and, to a lesser degree, the House. The Democrats’ biggest vulnerability? Nevada.
In November, Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto will be defending her seat against Republican Adam Laxalt. Democrats typically win the Silver State, but their margins tend to be thin: Biden and Hillary Clinton both beat Trump by two points there, and Republicans have held Democrats to single-digit wins in other recent statewide races. And in 2020 Democrats showed they were vulnerable in key Latino segments of the state.
Trump gained in heavily Latino
areas of Las Vegas
Percent Hispanic or Latino
100
0
North
Las Vegas
Enterprise
Henderson
Presidential margin shift, 2016-2020
+20 Dem
+20 Rep
North
Las Vegas
Henderson
Enterprise
Sources: American Community Survey 5-year
estimates, 2019; VEST via Harvard Dataverse;
author calculations.
DAVID BYLER/THE WASHINGTON POST
Trump gained in heavily Latino areas of
Las Vegas
Percent Hispanic or Latino
100
0
North
Las Vegas
Enterprise
Henderson
Presidential margin shift, 2016-2020
+20 Dem
+20 Rep
North
Las Vegas
Henderson
Enterprise
Sources: American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2019;
VEST via Harvard Dataverse; author calculations.
DAVID BYLER/THE WASHINGTON POST
Trump gained in heavily Latino areas of Las Vegas
Percent Hispanic or Latino
Presidential margin shift, 2016-2020
+20 Dem
+20 Rep
100
0
North
Las Vegas
North
Las Vegas
Henderson
Enterprise
Enterprise
Henderson
Sources: American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2019;
VEST via Harvard Dataverse; author calculations.
DAVID BYLER/THE WASHINGTON POST
Trump’s gains in heavily Latino North Las Vegas is a good omen for Laxalt: 30 percent of the state’s overall population is Hispanic or Latino, and 89 percent of Nevadans live in two mostly urban counties (Clark and Washoe). If Republicans continue to make progress with Latinos, Democrats may find it hard to keep up. There aren’t that many more votes available among key Democratic constituencies: Black Nevadans represent only 11 percent of the state, and college-educated Whites are outnumbered by White working-class voters 2 to 1 statewide.
Latino Republicans could also help the GOP flip key House seats. Three of Nevada’s four districts — each light blue and each held by a Democrat — include large Latino populations from Las Vegas.
Las Vegas Hispanic or Latino
residents are split into three
districts
Each dot represents 100 Latino residents
District Four
31% Latino
Biden+8
North
Las Vegas
Las Vegas
District One
32% Latino
Biden+8
District Two
19% Latino
Biden+7
Source: American Community Survey;
FiveThirtyEight.
DAVID BYLER/ THE WASHINGTON POST
Las Vegas Hispanic or Latino residents
are split into three districts
Each dot represents 100 Latino residents
District Four
31% Latino
Biden+8
North
Las Vegas
Las Vegas
District One
32% Latino
Biden+8
District Two
19% Latino
Biden+7
Source: American Community Survey;
FiveThirtyEight.
DAVID BYLER/THE WASHINGTON POST
Las Vegas Hispanic or Latino residents are split into three districts
Each dot represents 100 Latino residents
District Four
31% Latino
Biden+8
North
Las Vegas
District Two
19% Latino
Biden+7
Las Vegas
District One
32% Latino
Biden+8
Source: American Community Survey; FiveThirtyEight.
DAVID BYLER/THE WASHINGTON POST
This congressional map is an attempted gerrymander: Hispanic and Latino voters, along with other core Democratic constituencies, are spread across three districts, each of which voted for Biden by a single-digit margin in 2020. (Republicans have one Trump-won district farther north.) But with further Republican gains among Latinos, this map may turn into a “dummymander” — a gerrymander that backfires and delivers extra seats to the out-of-power party.
These problems plague Democrats across the region. Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly won his Senate seat by only two points in 2020, and 1 in 3 Arizona residents is Hispanic or Latino. In New Mexico, Democrats drew Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell into a bluer, majority Latino district — but FiveThirtyEight’s House forecast still has her as a slight favorite. And in all three states, the race for governor is at least somewhat competitive.
Playing Defense: The Big States
Though 2022 is expected to be a red year, Republicans won’t just be playing offense — they’ll want to take Democratic targets off the board, too. Latino Republicans may help them do so in California, Florida and Texas.
We’ll start by zooming in on Southern California.
Hispanic or Latino Los Angeles
residents spill into four seats
where Republicans are favored
Each dot represents 1000 Latino residents
CA-27
Biden+8
39% Latino
CA-41
Trump+1
34% Latino
Riverside
Los
Angeles
Irvine
CA-45
Biden+6
27% Latino
CA-40
Biden+2
23% Latino
Sources: American Community Survey 5-year
estimates, 2019; Loyala Law School; Cook Political
Report; FiveThirtyEight.
DAVID BYLER/THE WASHINGTON POST
Hispanic or Latino Los Angeles residents
spill into seats where Republicans are
favored
Each dot represents 1000 Latino residents
CA-27
Biden+8
39% Latino
Toss-up
CA-41
Trump+1
34% Latino
Lean Republican
Santa
Clarita
Riverside
Los
Angeles
Irvine
CA-45
Biden+6
27% Latino
Lean Republican
CA-40
Biden+2
23% Latino
Likely Republican
Sources: American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2019;
Loyala Law School; Cook Political Report; FiveThirtyEight.
DAVID BYLER/THE WASHINGTON POST
Hispanic or Latino Los Angeles residents spill into seats where
Republicans are favored
Each dot represents 1000 Latino residents
CA-27
Biden+8
39% Latino
Toss-up
Santa
Clarita
CA-41
Trump+1
34% Latino
Lean Republican
Riverside
Los Angeles
Irvine
CA-45
Biden+6
27% Latino
Lean Republican
CA-40
Biden+2
23% Latino
Likely Republican
Sources: American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2019; Loyala Law School; Cook Political Report;
FiveThirtyEight.
DAVID BYLER/THE WASHINGTON POST
Los Angeles features four diverse, suburban seats — Biden won three of them, while Trump barely took the other. These are seats where diversity and suburban gains “should” give Democrats an edge. But Republicans are favored in three of these seats, and one is a toss-up, and a Latino surge would push them further into the GOP column. California’s 21st and Florida’s 27th district are good examples of other districts like this.
Latino Republicans may also help popular GOP governors play defense. One prominent example: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is running for a second term. DeSantis looks strong — in part because he’s benefiting from a surge in support in South Florida.
Republicans made more
progress in Miami than other
Florida metros
Tie
D+30
D+20
D+10
R+10
Miami
Orlando
Jacksonville
President,
2016
Tampa
Senate,
2018
President,
2020
Source: David Leip; Office of Management and
Budget; author calculations
DAVID BYLER/THE WASHINGTON POST
Republicans made more progress in
Miami than other Florida metros
D+30
D+20
D+10
Tie
R+10
Miami
Tampa
Orlando
Jacksonville
President,
2016
Senate,
2018
President,
2020
Source: David Leip; Office of Management and Budget; author
calculations.
DAVID BYLER/THE WASHINGTON POST
Republicans made more progress in Miami than other Florida metros
D+30
D+20
D+10
Tie
R+10
R+20
Miami
Orlando
Tampa
Jacksonville
President, 2016
Senate, 2018
President, 2020
Source: David Leip; Office of Management and Budget; author calculations
DAVID BYLER/THE WASHINGTON POST
In 2016, Trump narrowly won Florida, besting Clinton by only a point statewide. In 2018, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum improved on Clinton’s margin in major metros such as Jacksonville and Tampa, and wound up trailing DeSantis by a half a point in the final statewide count.
But Gillum lost ground in Miami — a home to many Latin American immigrants. And by 2020, Trump had improved on DeSantis’s performance, posting huge gains in Cuban American neighborhoods. Now the conventional wisdom about Florida has changed: It’s seen as a light-red state that reliably delivers victories to Republicans like DeSantis.
In Texas, a similar story is playing out. New Latino Republicans are helping incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott fend off a challenge from Democrat Beto O’Rourke.
304
MANDATORY SIZE
While major Texas metros
shifted left, South Texas moved
right
D+40
D+30
D+20
D+10
Tie
R+10
South
Texas
Houston
President,
2016
San
Antonio
Austin
Dallas
Senate,
2018
President,
2020
Note: South Texas includes the following counties:
Maverick, Zavala, Frio, Dimmit, La Salle, Webb,
Duval, Kleberg, Jim Wells, Nueces, Kenedy, Brooks,
Jim Hogg, Zapata, Starr, Willacy, Hidalgo, Cameron
and Webb.
Sources: Dave Leip; Office of Management and
Budget; author calculations.
DAVID BYLER/THE WASHINGTON POST
While major Texas metros shifted left,
South Texas moved right
D+40
D+30
D+20
D+10
Tie
R+10
South
Texas
Houston
President,
2016
Austin
San
Antonio
Dallas
Senate,
2018
President,
2020
Note: South Texas includes the following counties: Maverick,
Zavala, Frio, Dimmit, La Salle, Webb, Duval, Kleberg, Jim Wells,
Nueces, Kenedy, Brooks, Jim Hogg, Zapata, Starr, Willacy,
Hidalgo, Cameron and Webb.
Sources: Dave Leip; Office of Management and Budget;
author calculations.
DAVID BYLER/THE WASHINGTON POST
While major Texas metros shifted left, South Texas moved right
D+40
D+30
D+20
D+10
Tie
R+10
South
Texas
Houston
Austin
President, 2016
Dallas
San
Antonio
Senate, 2018
President, 2020
Note: South Texas includes the following counties: Maverick, Zavala, Frio, Dimmit, La Salle, Webb, Duval,
Kleberg, Jim Wells, Nueces, Kenedy, Brooks, Jim Hogg, Zapata, Starr, Willacy, Hidalgo, Cameron and Webb.
Sources: Dave Leip; Office of Management and Budget; author calculations.
DAVID BYLER/THE WASHINGTON POST
Texas wasn’t particularly close in 2016. But in 2018, O’Rourke ran for Senate, won over white-collar suburbanites and got within two points of victory. O’Rourke’s overall performance was strong, but his slight decline in heavily Latino South Texas seems to have been a canary in the coal mine. By 2020, Democratic margins in the metros had come back to Earth and Republicans made massive strides in South Texas and other diverse areas.
The result: Texas looks red again, and the odds of O’Rourke unseating Abbott are low.
When a ‘permanent’ majority fails
Throughout the Obama administration, Democrats dreamed of forging a permanent majority: a diverse coalition that would only expand as the Latino population grew and an increasing number of Americans earned college degrees. Trump’s victory in 2016 — and his progress with Latino voters in 2020 — shattered this dream.
And now, in 2022, a new political map is beginning to emerge. States that Democrats had started to take for granted, such as Nevada, are battlegrounds. Republicans are finding new strength in states that were “supposed” to turn blue — such as Texas and Florida. Still, Democrats can take comfort in one truth of politics: The only certainty is that the next majority, be it red or blue, will be — to use Biden’s word — “transitory.”