Even as the Biden administration has secured tens of billions of dollars in U.S. aid to supply Ukraine’s military with the weapons it needs to fight bigger, stronger Russian forces, the U.S. response has lacked long-term thinking in a war that will not end soon.
Several NATO allies are more clear-eyed. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has approved advanced fighter jet training for Ukrainian pilots. Both Poland and the Netherlands, whose air arsenals include F-16s, have signaled they are prepared to do the same or more. French President Emmanuel Macron has said he is considering providing Kyiv with fighter jets. Yet without leadership from Washington, nothing much is likely to happen.
That’s been the pattern since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine a year ago, most notably with the supply of top-of-the-line battle tanks. Ukraine needed them months ago. But it was only Mr. Biden’s decision in January to supply U.S.-made M1 Abrams tanks that ended foot-dragging by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose approval was needed before his own military and those of other NATO partners could send German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.
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End of carouselAlso on the Editorial Board’s agenda
- The misery of Belarus’s political prisoners should not be ignored.
- Biden has a new border plan.
- The United States should keep the pressure on Nicaragua.
- America’s fight against inflation isn’t over.
- The Taliban has doubled down on the repression of women.
- The world’s ice is melting quickly.
Ihar Losik, one of hundreds of young people unjustly jailed in Belarus for opposing Alexander Lukashenko’s dictatorship, attempted suicide but was saved and sent to a prison medical unit, according to the human rights group Viasna. Losik, 30, a blogger who led a popular Telegram channel, was arrested in 2020 and is serving a 15-year prison term on charges of “organizing riots” and “incitement to hatred.” His wife is also a political prisoner. Read more about their struggle — and those of other political prisoners — in a recent editorial.
The Department of Homeland Security has provided details of a plan to prevent a migrant surge along the southern border. The administration would presumptively deny asylum to migrants who failed to seek it in a third country en route — unless they face “an extreme and imminent threat” of rape, kidnapping, torture or murder. Critics allege that this is akin to an illegal Trump-era policy. In fact, President Biden is acting lawfully in response to what was fast becoming an unmanageable flow at the border. Read our most recent editorial on the U.S. asylum system.
Some 222 Nicaraguan political prisoners left that Central American country for the United States in February. President Daniel Ortega released and sent them into exile in a single motion. Nevertheless, it appears that Mr. Ortega let them go under pressure from economic sanctions the United States imposed on his regime when he launched a wave of repression in 2018. The Biden administration should keep the pressure on. Read recent editorials about the situation in Nicaragua.
Inflation remains stubbornly high at 6.4 percent in January. The Federal Reserve’s job is not done in this fight. More interest rate hikes are needed. Read a recent editorial about inflation and the Fed.
Afghanistan’s rulers had promised that barring women from universities was only temporary. But private universities got a letter on Jan. 28 warning them that women are prohibited from taking university entrance examinations. Afghanistan has 140 private universities across 24 provinces, with around 200,000 students. Out of those, some 60,000 to 70,000 are women, the AP reports. Read a recent editorial on women’s rights in Afghanistan.
A new study finds that half the world’s mountain glaciers and ice caps will melt even if global warming is restrained to 1.5 degrees Celsius — which it won’t be. This would feed sea-level rise and imperil water sources for hundreds of millions. Read a recent editorial on how to cope with rising seas, and another on the policies needed to fight climate change.
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Speaking to members of Parliament in London last month, British Defense Minister Ben Wallace suggested that a similar dynamic might be at work with fighter jets. “Since we took on the battle over getting tanks to Ukraine, people are understandably asking what will be the next capability,” he said. “What we know about all these demands is that the initial response is no, but the eventual response is yes.”
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The trouble is the word “eventual.” Dithering over weapons for Ukraine is likely to translate into stalemate, which serves Russian President Vladimir Putin’s interests. The Kremlin dictator believes that his determination to subjugate Ukraine will outlast the West’s patience to stand steadfast with Kyiv. If he is right, U.S. and NATO credibility, influence and prestige will be irreparably damaged. Mr. Biden deepens the risk of that damage by withholding fighter jets, which could provide protection for Ukrainian forces and help deter further Russian aggression.
Unfortunately, the West has to think in terms of years. Even if Russian forces were pushed back to the lines that prevailed before Mr. Putin’s full-scale invasion a year ago — even if they were driven out of Ukraine entirely — the West would be wise to regard the threat from Moscow as an indefinite feature of the security landscape. That means providing Ukraine with deterrent muscle for the foreseeable future.
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End of carouselOpinions on the war in Ukraine after one year
One year ago, Russia invaded Ukraine. Post Opinions is marking the anniversary with columns looking at all that has transpired and what may lie ahead.
Post Opinions partnered with the Brookings Institution to visualize the war’s effects on Ukraine’s economy, immigration trends and more. Together, these indicators suggest the fighting is unlikely to end anytime soon, write Michael O’Hanlon, Constanze Stelzenmüller and David Wessel of Brookings.
The Editorial Board looked for solutions, calling on the United States and its European allies to intensify their military, economic and diplomatic support for Kyiv. Vladimir Putin hopes for a stalemate, the Editorial Board writes, and the West needs to fuel a game-changing shift in momentum.
In an op-ed adapted from her Feb. 9 speech at the “Rebuilding Ukraine, Rebuilding the World” conference at Harvard, Oleksandra Matviichuk writes that it is not only wrong but also immoral not to provide weapons for Ukraine.
Retired Army Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling describes the Ukraine war as a slugfest, not a stalemate. He outlines five phases of the war and predicts that Ukraine’s forces will ultimately prevail.
Columnist Jason Willick looks at the war through the lens of U.S. politics. President Biden, he says, is positioned to take advantage of divided government by using as his foil Republicans who oppose continued support for Ukraine.
Antony Beevor, a former tank commander with the British Army, says the Ukraine war has revived the role of the main battle tank.
Columnist David Ignatius examines three main characters of the war: Vladimir Putin, Volodymyr Zelensky and Joe Biden. A year into the war, Ignatius writes, Putin’s staying power begins to seem questionable, while Zelensky and Biden have never looked stronger.
Columnist George F. Will discusses the importance of continued support for Ukraine, writing that Putin can win only if Ukraine’s allies neglect to maximize their moral and material advantages.
Graham Allison, a professor of government at Harvard, reconsiders what it would mean to win in Ukraine. A new Cold War, he writes, might not be the worst outcome.
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Advanced fighter jets are not a panacea; they are one element of deterrence. If the Biden administration insists, they could be provided on the understanding that Ukraine will not use them to attack targets in Russian territory — where, in any event, Russian air-defense systems would make such sorties too dangerous. Within Ukraine’s own airspace, however, F-16s could narrow the gap between Moscow’s air power and Kyiv’s, and operate relatively safely in coordination with other Western-supplied weapons. Those include U.S.-made AGM-88 HARM radar-destroying missiles that would limit Russia’s ability to use surface-to-air missiles to shoot down fighter jets.
What’s more, F-16s are becoming more available as a number of NATO countries shift to the more advanced U.S.-made F-35. Yet without an official say-so from Washington, F-16s cannot be provided to Ukraine.
All wars end, but history is replete with ones that drag on, waxing and waning without a real cessation of hostilities. If that is the scenario Ukraine faces — and there is reason to believe it is — the United States and its allies need to start thinking beyond spring offensives or annual appropriations or the next election cycle. Long fights call for long-term planning and vision, and effective air power is essential on that horizon.