What a wild ride in 2022! War and upheaval — and that was just in the Republican Party. But as New York Times columnist William Safire once wrote in a year-end “Office Pool” quiz, when it comes to making bets about our crazy future, “Nostradamus himself couldn’t score over 50 percent.”
So, in the spirit of my late friend Safire, place your wagers for 2023. You’ll see my picks after you choose, marked with a gold background.
1 of 12 At the end of 2023, the endgame in Ukraine will be:
A stalemate, with neither side winning
Russia pounding Ukraine with newly mobilized troops
A Ukrainian counteroffensive that pushes Russia out of its territory
Russian movement of mobile tactical nuclear weapons into Crimea
2 of 12 Russian President Vladimir Putin will end 2023:
In a dacha outside Moscow isolated from the world
Preparing to run in a rigged election in 2024 following a humiliating defeat by Ukraine
Looking for a 2024 successor such as Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin to keep him out of jail
Story continues below advertisement
Story continues below advertisement
3 of 12 Time’s Person of the Year in 2023 will be:
Volodymyr Zelensky for a second year in a row
2024 dark-horse presidential candidate Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo
Ukrainian Army commander and military hero Valerii Zaluzhnyi
Ukraine mediator and U.N. Secretary General António Guterres
4 of 12 The game-changing weapon of 2023 in Ukraine will be:
American high-powered microwave systems that make drones fall out of the sky
U.S. ATACMS missiles that can reach targets inside Russia
Russian tactical nuclear weapons
5 of 12 The eeriest technology development of 2023 will be:
An AI system that wins the Defcon “Capture the Flag” contest, the world’s premier hacker competition
A Rand Corp. report showing how a rogue biologist could create a virus that kills billions
An AI successor to AlphaFold that can predict how a gene inserted into a cell will affect the organism
Terrorist pursuit of an AlphaFold model that could create a smallpox weapon that kills 90 percent of those infected
Evidence from the James Webb telescope that we are not alone in the universe
6 of 12 Iran in 2023 will be rocked by:
Continuing popular protests that bring down the regime
A leadership transition after the death of Iran’s 83-year-old supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Israeli strikes on its nuclear facilities
A Biden administration announcement that the 2015 nuclear agreement is dead, triggering Iranian nuclear escalation and Israeli response
Story continues below advertisement
Story continues below advertisement
7 of 12 North Korea’s Kim Jong Un will mark 2023 by:
Taking bets on how many more times Washington will warn that a seventh nuclear test could come “at any time”
Writing a note to his daughter’s teacher explaining she didn’t do her homework because she was viewing a missile launch
Offering to host a LIV Golf tour event at Trump Club East in Pyongyang
Demanding a review copy of the latest Inspector O novel by James Church, in which the North Korean detective searches for the bones of Prince Potemkin, which disappeared from Kherson in October
8 of 12 Chinese President Xi Jinping’s biggest problem in 2023 will be:
A covid-19 death toll by June that exceeds 1.5 million people and the resulting internal instability
Worries about a declining population that, according to U.N. forecasts, will by 2079 have more people outside working age than within it
The emergence of Japan and South Korea as potential nuclear powers after North Korea resumes nuclear testing
A pro-Chinese separatist movement in Siberia
9 of 12 The hottest TV series of 2023 will be:
“Shogun,” based on the James Clavell novel, on FX or Hulu
“A Man in Full,” based on the Tom Wolfe novel, starring Jeff Daniels, on Netflix
“Presumed Innocent,” based on the Scott Turow novel, starring Jake Gyllenhaal, on Apple TV Plus
“Queen Charlotte: A Bridgerton Story,” produced by Shonda Rhimes, on Netflix
“Lioness,” starring Zoe Saldana and Nicole Kidman, on Paramount Plus
Story continues below advertisement
Story continues below advertisement
10 of 12 The blockbuster movie of 2023 will be:
“Barbie,” directed by Greta Gerwig and starring Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling
“Haunted Mansion,” directed by Justin Simien and starring Jamie Lee Curtis and Winona Ryder
“Oppenheimer,” directed by Christopher Nolan and starring Cillian Murphy, Robert Downey Jr., Matt Damon and Emily Blunt
“Killers of the Flower Moon,” directed by Martin Scorsese and starring Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro
“The Boys in the Boat,” directed by George Clooney and starring Joel Edgerton
11 of 12 The must-read book of 2023 will be:
“Never Give Up,” by Tom Brokaw
“Power and Progress: Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity,” by Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson
“A Minor Revolution: How Prioritizing Kids Benefits Us All,” by Adam Benforado
“Poverty, by America,” by Matthew Desmond
“Unscripted: The Epic Battle for a Media Empire and the Redstone Family Legacy,” by James B. Stewart and Rachel Abrams
12 of 12 The biggest economic surprise of 2023 will be:
A stock market boom that follows resolution of the Ukraine war
A market sell-off triggered by Taiwan invasion fears
The Fed raises interest rates an additional 2 to 3 percent to bring inflation below 4 percent by year’s end
Fed tightening produces a wave of defaults in the leveraged loan market
A bipartisan bill to regulate cryptocurrency
We agree on 0 out of 12 picks. 