The best way to avoid nuclear materials falling into the wrong hands is for nations to not keep them around. The most promising finding in the study is that the number of countries with more than one kilogram of highly enriched uranium, the fuel for a nuclear bomb, has dropped from 32 to 22 in six years, with Argentina and Poland removing or disposing of those materials most recently. The others that have given it up are Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Mexico, Sweden, Ukraine, Uzbekistan and Vietnam. That’s down from more than 50 countries in the early 1990s.
Among the 22 with more than a kilogram of highly enriched uranium, 21 have improved their defenses against theft of nuclear materials over the past two years; only North Korea received a worsening score, the study said. Also, the report says, of the 45 nations that have nuclear facilities, there was broad improvement in security and control measures, such as on-site physical protection, measures to avert insider threats and physical security during transit. Much of this work is in the thankless category of tweaking procedures and methods, but it suggests a seriousness of purpose long after the speeches at the summits are over.
Unfortunately, the world at large does not show as much promise. The index tracks the “risk environment” for countries and found it was declining in some that possess nuclear materials. The authors of the study say this criteria measures “political stability, effective governance, the pervasiveness of corruption, and whether there are groups in the country interested in and capable of illicitly acquiring nuclear materials.” The United States was cited for deterioration in political stability and effective governance. It is not difficult to see why amid the tumult of the Trump presidency. The report cites “heightened social unrest, resignations and vacancies from key government departments, and the increasingly deep polarization of political party politics (which contributes to a country’s ability to establish and sustain policies to secure nuclear materials).”
The study found that Belgium, Egypt, India, Pakistan and Russia “all face a heightened risk that a capable terrorist group could commit acts of nuclear terrorism.” Many countries are also “poorly prepared” for a cyberattack on nuclear facilities.
No one should harbor any illusions that the problem known as “loose nukes” has gone away. A catastrophe always is possible. But hard work might avert disaster, and it appears many governments are taking the threat seriously.