The National Weather Service’s snow predictions this past week were a bit overblown. The Washington area got barely any snow, while New York and Philadelphia got much less than forecast. (Matt McClain/The Washington Post)
Dear National Weather Service: You have one job. Just get the weather forecasts mostly right, especially when predicting things like, say, debilitating snow in the country’s most populous city.
On Monday, the NWS was issuing dire forecasts — up to three feet in the Big Apple and more than a foot in Philly. Less than a foot of snow fell in New York City, while two-ish inches came down in the City of Brotherly Love. (Washington actually got the small accumulation we were told to expect.)
What happened? As documented by The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang, the NWS — particularly its New York and Philadelphia branches — failed to adequately convey that even the slightest movement of the storm to the east could drastically shift snow totals downward.
Guess what happened? The storm moved slightly to the east, giving New York a pass (or at least a heck of a lot less snow than was forecast) while burying Long Island, southern Connecticut and Boston .
Now, before I pile on too much — heyoooo! — it’s worth noting two things. First, the NWS did say there was uncertainty in the forecast, it just didn’t say it all that loudly. And second, cable television (forever in search of ratings) pumped up the high end of the snow predictions and dispatched a bevy of correspondents to New York to cover the story in their back yard. One network even had a “BlizzardMobile.”
By Tuesday afternoon, NWS Director Louis Uccellini was in apology mode. “It is incumbent on us to communicate forecast uncertainty,” he said. “We need to make the uncertainties clear.”
Um, yes. That’s the sort of information we could have used Monday.
The National Weather Service, for getting snowed on the forecast, you had the worst week in Washington. Congrats, or something.
Each week, Chris Cillizza awards the worst week in Washington to an inhabitant of Planet Beltway who stands out for all the wrong reasons. You can check out previous winners or e-mail Cillizza with candidates. You can also read more from Outlook and follow our updates on Facebook and Twitter.
