The Washington PostDemocracy Dies in Darkness

Trump’s endorsement record on Twitter: 50-50

President Trump addressed a campaign rally in Fort Wayne, Ind., on Monday. (Carlos Barria/Reuters)

President Trump insists on tweeting, he says, because it is his way of speaking to the American public without the filter of the media. Over the course of the past several months, that’s meant informing the public about his picks for various state and federal races as the midterm elections loomed.

He has regularly bragged about his ability to close the deal for Republican candidates, pointing out on several occasions that his endorsed candidates over the course of 2018 usually won. He would point, for example, to Rep. Daniel Donovan (R-N.Y.), who was trailing in his race before Trump stepped in. Donovan went on to win.

The trouble with that narrative for Trump was that he was usually pointing to his success in endorsing Republicans in primary contests. On Tuesday night, Donovan faced a Democrat in his House race on Staten Island — and lost. Donovan was rejected even though the seat wasn’t seen as a likely pickup for Democrats and despite the fact that Trump stepped in at the last minute to do a robo-call on Donovan’s behalf.

So how did Trump fare in the endorsements he offered to the public over Twitter? He had endorsed 52 people since mid-August, by our count, and, as of writing, lost more than he won. Including those with pending results, he split the results evenly: 26 wins or races in which his candidate is leading, 26 losses or races in which the Republican is trailing.

Trump also endorsed candidates in eight House contests that Democrats won, picking up the seat from an incumbent Republican. Interestingly, the results as of Wednesday morning indicate that the Republican candidates fared worse than did Trump two years ago in 45 of the 52 races.

Below are Trump’s endorsed candidates, by date of endorsement. Of his last four tweeted endorsements, three of the candidates lost. One of those races flipped to Democrats.

First endorsed on Aug. 15

Bob Stefanowski. Governor, Connecticut. Result: TBD. Margin: D+1.7. Change from 2016: D+13.6.

Kris Kobach. Governor, Kansas. Result: Loss. Margin: D+4.5. Change from 2016: R+20.4.

Jeff Johnson. Governor, Minnesota. Result: Loss. Margin: D+11.5. Change from 2016: D+1.5.

Pete Stauber. House, Minnesota. Result: Win. Margin: R+5.5. Change from 2016: R+15.6.

Scott Walker. Governor, Wisconsin. Result: Loss. Margin: D+1.2. Change from 2016: R+0.8.

Bryan Steil. House, Wisconsin. Result: Win. Margin: R+12.3. Change from 2016: R+10.3.

Leah Vukmir. Senate, Wisconsin. Result: Loss. Margin: D+10.8. Change from 2016: R+0.8.

Aug. 20

John Cox. Governor, California. Result: Loss. Margin: D+18.8. Change from 2016: D+30.

Diane Harkey. House, California. Result: TBD. Margin: D+4.8. Change from 2016: D+7.5.

Patrick Morrisey. Senate, West Virginia. Result: Loss. Margin: D+3.2. Change from 2016: R+41.7.

Aug. 23

Cindy Hyde-Smith. Senate, Mississippi. Result: TBD. Margin: R+0.6. Change from 2016: R+17.8.

Aug. 27

Ron DeSantis. Governor, Florida. Result: Win. Margin: R+0.7. Change from 2016: R+1.2.

Aug. 28

Martha McSally. Senate, Arizona. Result: TBD. Margin: R+0.9. Change from 2016: R+3.5.

Aug. 30

Kevin Stitt. Governor, Oklahoma. Result: Win. Margin: R+12.1. Change from 2016: R+36.4.

Aug. 31

Ted Cruz. Senate, Texas. Result: Win. Margin: R+2.6. Change from 2016: R+9.

Sept. 4

Paul Cook. House, California. Result: Win. Margin: R+20.6. Change from 2016: R+15.1.

Sept. 7

Matt Rosendale. Senate, Montana. Result: TBD. Margin: R+0.3. Change from 2016: R+20.2.

Sept. 8

Dave Hughes. House, Minnesota. Result: Loss. Margin: D+4.2. Change from 2016: R+30.8.

Sept. 15

Danny Tarkanian. House, Nevada. Result: Loss. Margin: D+9.1. Change from 2016: R+1.

Keith Rothfus. House, Pennsylvania Result: Loss. Margin: D+12.2. Change from 2016: R+2.6.

FLIP: Pete Sessions. House, Texas. Result: Loss. Margin: D+6.3. Change from 2016: D+1.9.

Sept. 20

Jay Webber. House, New Jersey. Result: Loss. Margin: D+12.3. Change from 2016: R+0.9.

Sept. 26

Lee Zeldin. House, New York. Result: Win. Margin: R+6.1. Change from 2016: R+12.3.

Oct. 3

Tom Reed. House, New York. Result: Win. Margin: R+10. Change from 2016: R+14.8.

Oct. 10

Walker Stapleton. Governor, Colorado. Result: Loss. Margin: D+6.6. Change from 2016: D+4.9.

Oct. 13

Garland “Andy” Barr. House, Kentucky. Result: Win. Margin: R+3.2. Change from 2016: R+15.3.

Oct. 17

Neal Dunn. House, Florida. Result: Win. Margin: R+35. Change from 2016: R+35.6.

Oct. 18

FLIP: Dave Brat. House, Virginia. Result: Loss. Margin: D+1.4. Change from 2016: R+6.5.

Oct. 20

Brian Kemp. Governor, Georgia. Result: TBD. Margin: R+1.9. Change from 2016: R+5.1.

Dean Heller. Senate, Nevada. Result: Loss. Margin: D+5. Change from 2016: D+2.4.

Oct. 22

FLIP: Erik Paulsen. House, Minnesota. Result: Loss. Margin: D+11.4. Change from 2016: D+9.4.

Oct. 23

FLIP: John Faso. House, New York. Result: Loss. Margin: D+2.2. Change from 2016: R+6.8.

Oct. 25

Mike Dunleavy. Governor, Alaska. Result: TBD. Margin: R+7.5. Change from 2016: R+14.7.

Bruce Poliquin. House, Maine. Result: TBD. Margin: R+0.5. Change from 2016: R+10.3.

Troy Balderson. House, Ohio. Result: Win. Margin: R+4.5. Change from 2016: R+11.3.

John Chrin. House, Pennsylvania. Result: Loss. Margin: D+9.2. Change from 2016: R+9.6.

Lloyd Smucker. House, Pennsylvania Result: Win. Margin: R+18. Change from 2016: R+25.8.

Oct. 29

FLIP: Rod Blum. House, Iowa. Result: Loss. Margin: D+4.9. Change from 2016: R+3.5.

FLIP: Jason Lewis. House, Minnesota. Result: Loss. Margin: D+5.6. Change from 2016: R+1.2.

Jim Hagedorn. House, Minnesota. Result: TBD. Margin: R+0.6. Change from 2016: R+14.9.

Denver Riggleman. House, Virginia. Result: Win. Margin: R+6.6. Change from 2016: R+11.1.

Cathy McMorris Rodgers. House, Washington. Result: Win. Margin: R+11.8. Change from 2016: R+13.1.

Oct. 30

FLIP: Kevin Yoder. House, Kansas. Result: Loss. Margin: D+9.1. Change from 2016: D+1.2.

Mike DeWine. Governor, Ohio. Result: Win. Margin: R+4.3. Change from 2016: R+8.

Kevin Brady. House, Texas. Result: Win. Margin: R+48.7. Change from 2016: R+48.8.

Nov. 2

Scott Perry. House, Pennsylvania. Result: Win. Margin: R+2.8. Change from 2016: R+8.9.

Nov. 3

Doug Ducey. Governor, Arizona. Result: Win. Margin: R+17.6. Change from 2016: R+3.5.

Nov. 5

Claudia Tenney. House, New York. Result: TBD. Margin: D+0.6. Change from 2016: R+15.5.

Nov. 6

Michael Waltz. House, Florida. Result: Win. Margin: R+12.6. Change from 2016: R+17.

FLIP: Randy Hultgren. House, Illinois. Result: Loss. Margin: D+2.8. Change from 2016: R+3.9.

Lena Epstein. House, Michigan. Result: Loss. Margin: D+7.2. Change from 2016: R+4.4.

Bob Hugin. Senate, New Jersey. Result: Loss. Margin: D+9.3. Change from 2016: D+14.