This month, it was Warren’s turn. In her home state of Massachusetts, the state she represents in the Senate, Warren polled at 24 percent, just behind former vice president Joe Biden. The two of them were way out in front of the rest of the pack, a group that included most of the remaining candidates.
Again, this is what usually happens. People in Massachusetts know Warren and have voted for her multiple times; naturally a big chunk of them will think that she is similarly well prepared to be president.
There aren’t very many good polls in places that the Democratic candidates represent or have represented. Often that’s because those places aren’t that big. No one is going to poll in South Bend, Ind., or Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District at this point for the very good reason that such a poll wouldn’t tell us much. But also we can probably guess who would be leading in those jurisdictions or at least doing unusually well: South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg or Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, the candidates who represent those places.
Sometimes, though, we get a solid poll looking at support in the Democratic primary in a place from which one of those candidates hails. On Tuesday, the Siena College Research Institute released a new poll looking at New York state — but which also included a look at support in New York City itself. New York City, you’re likely aware, is the jurisdiction of Mayor Bill de Blasio, who entered the Democratic primary in May.
How’s he doing on his home turf? As a millennial might say, [poop emoji].
Once responses are weighted, de Blasio gets zero percent support in New York City, somewhat less than Biden, Warren or Harris get. Slightly less than Buttigieg gets. Slightly less than entrepreneur Andrew Yang gets.
A representative for the Siena poll confirmed to The Washington Post that of the 389 Democrats included in the survey, precisely one person in the state said that de Blasio was his preferred presidential candidate. That one person was an older white man from New York City, meaning that it’s not impossible that de Blasio himself was polled. (This is a joke, but … maybe it isn’t.)
Put another way, the unweighted number of people in New York City who want de Blasio to be the Democratic nominee (one) is less than the unweighted number of people in Massachusetts who do (two).
This isn’t really new. De Blasio’s travails as a candidate are well established by now. New Yorkers didn’t want him to run, and now that he is running, don’t plan to vote for him. He’s viewed more favorably than President Trump in New York City but not by much: De Blasio’s approval is at 33 percent in the city, compared with 23 percent approval for Trump.
That gap might shrink. Before de Blasio announced his candidacy, Siena’s polling had him viewed about as favorably in the city as unfavorably. As he’s spent his time bopping around Iowa and New Hampshire, his favorability rating has slipped lower, and the percentage of New York City residents who view him unfavorably has grown.
Statewide, de Blasio is viewed more negatively than Trump, a function of Republicans elsewhere in the state viewing Trump positively. Even Democrats in New York don’t really care for de Blasio, with only about a third viewing him positively.
Perhaps this is just the flip side of running for president. In some cases, your constituents support your bid — but maybe in some cases they grow frustrated at the amount of time you’re spending in distant Midwestern states. For de Blasio, that frustration must be worth it, given that he’s still out there stumping for the party nomination.
And it’s paying off. In a recent poll in Iowa, fully 1 percent of likely Democratic voters in the state plan to caucus for him next winter, and another full 1 percent say they would consider doing so.
That’s good enough to be in a three-way tie for 15th place on that metric.