A few Democrats are in danger of missing the November presidential debate, thanks to another tightening of the rules by the Democratic National Committee. Ten candidates appear to have qualified so far, with Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) hitting the mark a week before the deadline.
Who has qualified for each debate
|de Blasio||Dropped out|
Under the new rules, candidates must register at least 3 percent in four polls approved by the party since Sept. 13, or at least 5 percent in two early state polls (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina or Nevada). Candidates must also earn donations from at least 165,000 unique donors, with at least 600 coming from 20 individual states.
These requirements must be met by the end of Nov. 13. The DNC will officially release the list of qualified candidates around that date, a week in advance of the debate.
As with previous debates, candidates are having a tougher time meeting the polling threshold than the donor requirements. Each candidate who has met the polling threshold also has enough donors, according to their campaigns. Former housing and urban development secretary Julián Castro has met the donor threshold but not the polling threshold.
|3% in four national or early state polls||or||5% in two early state polls|
| || |
Needs 4 more
Needs 2 more
Pollsters don’t typically announce their polls in advance, so it’s not clear how many more chances the candidates will have to qualify. In the past few months, a qualifying poll has been released roughly every two days, and 32 qualifying polls have been released during this debate’s qualification window so far.
The debate rules have helped narrow the field. Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Tex.) and Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) dropped out of the race during this debate qualification window.
Correction (Oct. 15): A previous version of this story stated that O’Rourke had not earned at least 3 percent in the last 14 qualifying polls. While it did not count toward his qualifying total, he earned 3 percent in the Oct. 10 Fox News national poll.
About this report
This analysis is based on rules set by the DNC. Individual donor numbers are reported by the campaigns. Polling totals are based on numbers compiled by Politico.