The Democratic presidential field is supposed to be getting smaller right now; instead, it’s suddenly growing. Former Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick announced his candidacy Thursday, and former New York mayor Mike Bloomberg is filing for primaries and eyeing his own run.

So how do these late entries change the race? Below is our regular ranking of the top potential Democratic nominees — this time, with the list pared to 13 and a new member of the top tier.

As usual, they are in order of the most likely to win the nomination, not necessarily the presidency.

Also running: Michael F. Bennet, Steve Bullock, John Delaney, Joe Sestak, Marianne Williamson

Tier 4

13. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (Hawaii): Ever since Hillary Clinton speculated that Gabbard would be recruited to run a third-party campaign, Gabbard has been … sounding a lot like a third-party candidate. She called Clinton the “personification of the rot that has sickened the Democratic Party for so long” and announced she wouldn’t seek reelection to her House seat, in the face of a tough primary. But she still says she won’t run third-party. Expect her to be more of a focal point at Wednesday’s Washington Post/NBC News debate, but she’s selling something with limited appeal for this electorate. (Previous ranking: 12)

12. Businessman Tom Steyer: Money can’t buy you happiness, but it can rent you a place on the debate stage. Steyer spent a whopping $47 million of his own funds in the third quarter and got enough early-state polls to qualify for the last debate and this one. He still hasn’t done much with the platform, though. (Previous ranking: 11)

11. Andrew Yang: Still plugging along, and apparently betting on New Hampshire while others are betting on Iowa. (Previous ranking: 10)

Tier 3

10. Former housing and urban development secretary Julián Castro: Unlike the three candidates above, Castro didn’t qualify for Wednesday’s debate. In fact, his campaign is in pretty dire straits, both financially and polling-wise. I still see him as a more likely nominee than the previous three, in that he’s shown the kind of things you’d expect from someone who could plausibly take advantage of a topsy-turvy race. And he’s still a legitimate vice presidential prospect. (Previous ranking: 8)

9. Former New York mayor Mike Bloomberg: The first new entry on this list, I’ve got him a tier below Patrick because I just have a difficult time seeing why Democrats would go for Bloomberg. He aligns with them on key issues like guns and climate, but he’s a billionaire with some baggage, and a poll showed he’s already the most unpopular candidate — before he even gets in. I’m also somewhat skeptical he’ll eventually run; remember that he was filing for primaries because he had to if he ever wanted to run, not because he’s definitely in. His decision not to file for the early states is also quite the head-scratcher, given he had time to do so. (Previous ranking: N/A)

Tier 2

8. Former Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick: Patrick isn’t a billionaire, but he does come to this primary from the party’s more corporate wing. Heck, he’s been working at the Mitt Romney-founded Bain Capital since 2015. But he’s a gifted messenger and someone plenty of high-profile Democrats have apparently wanted to run for a long time, including possibly Barack Obama. He should have a seat at the table, even as his late start is obviously not great. (Previous ranking: N/A)

7. Sen. Cory Booker (N.J.): Booker hadn’t gotten much traction to this point, but Bloomberg and Patrick probably make his path even more difficult. They’re both viable options for more business-friendly Democrats, they’re both from the Northeast like Booker, and Patrick could be a candidate to pick off the black voters who haven’t really gravitated to Booker. It’s still too early to call Booker a bust, though. (Previous ranking: 6)

6. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (Minn.): A new automated Public Policy Polling survey shows her climbing to 9 percent in Iowa. That’s her highest to date, but it’s hardly the first to suggest she’s climbing in that state. Despite this momentum, she declared she would root for her home-state Gophers against the University of Iowa on Saturday. This Minnesota alumna admires those principles (even if they lost). (Previous ranking: 7)

5. Sen. Kamala D. Harris (Calif.): She’s polling like an also-ran, and now there are reports of a campaign in turmoil. Her candidacy might be the biggest disappointment thus far, given her potential. (Previous ranking: 4)

Tier 1

4. South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg: Speaking of Iowa, Buttigieg moves into the top tier thanks to the authoritative Des Moines Register poll showing him opening up a significant lead there. He’s at 25 percent, with Elizabeth Warren in second at 16 percent and Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden at 15 percent. It’s no fluke; he’s been virtually tied for the lead there in the previous four polls, too (including the PPP poll). He’s not polling like a top-tier candidate nationally or in other early states, notably, but he’s clearly an attractive candidate to Iowa Democrats, and if he wins there … ? (Previous ranking: 5)

3. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.): While he waned a little in Iowa early on, the suddenly crowded pack of leaders there seems jumbled enough that he may not need to get to 30 percent to win. For someone with a very devoted base, that makes him a clear player. And if he wins Iowa, he’s got a big leg up in New Hampshire. (Previous ranking: 3)

2. Former vice president Joe Biden: You have to think Patrick and Bloomberg are doing this at least in part because they don’t see Biden effectively carrying the banner of the more moderate wing of the Democratic Party against Sanders and Warren. It’s not like Biden has really fallen in the polls, but there is clearly concern about his long-term viability if these candidates see an opening. (Previous ranking: 2)

1. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.): One of the undersold dynamics of the 2020 race is all the big business types attacking her — and probably helping her in the process, the latest being Lloyd Blankfein. Well, she’s suddenly seizing on it, with her campaign selling a mug that says “billionaire tears” on the side. Expect this to be a theme. (Previous ranking: 1)