Medvedev’s performance as prime minister led to much public criticism
Since August 2018, over 60 percent of Russians disapproved of Medvedev’s performance as prime minister in monthly public opinion polls. This stands in contrast to Putin, whose disapproval ratings have hovered in the low 30s.
Medvedev’s resignation takes place against a backdrop of economic stagnation. Economic growth has been flat since 2014, and forecasts of future economic growth are 1 percent to 2 percent at best for the foreseeable future. In addition, the euphoria of the annexation of the Crimea has largely faded. While Russians are happy that Russia is again a player in international politics, they appear to be increasingly sensitive to the economic costs of its new global status and especially interested in resolving domestic economic issues.
Putin may want to shake up Russian politics
The decision to accept Medvedev’s resignation (which was surely coordinated with the president) gives weight to arguments that Putin is interested in more serious institutional changes than many had expected. Putin faces term limits again in 2024. While it is not clear that he will step down at that time, Medvedev’s resignation may be part of broader plans associated with the end of scheduled term in office. Observers have speculated about possible constitutional changes that would allow Putin to keep power after 2024, perhaps in a new position.
In his address to the nation Tuesday, Putin announced support for a plan to shift some powers from the presidency to the Russian parliament. He argued that Russia should remain a presidential republic, but he also proposed that the Russian parliament should be able name the prime minister and other cabinet ministers. In its current form, the Russian parliament rarely opposes initiatives from the executive branch and largely serves as a forum for interest group lobbying.
The resignation of the government also allows the president to nominate ministers to a new government. This may allow the president to introduce changes in policy. Medvedev’s government was largely seen as protecting the status quo. A new government might help strengthen the Kremlin’s hand in the parliamentary elections scheduled for September 2021.
Medvedev will be assigned to a new position in the Russian Security Council, but the likelihood of him succeeding Putin seems greatly diminished. In his place, Putin has named Mikhail Mishustin, the former head the tax service. Mishustin is seen as a technocrat without political ambitions, giving further credence to the view that Putin may be using constitutional changes to retain power beyond 2024.
Timothy Frye is the Marshall D. Shulman professor of post-Soviet foreign policy at Columbia University, and a visiting fellow at the Russell Sage Foundation.