Democrats kick off their presidential primaries and caucuses with February contests in four states. These states are small, contributing just 155 pledged delegates out of the Democratic total of 3,979, but they have an outsized role in the narratives that can determine the eventual nominee.
Tue., Feb 11
Sat., Feb 22
New Hampshire
primary
Nevada
caucuses
Mon., Feb 3
Iowa
caucuses
Sat., Feb 29
South Carolina
primary
Tue., Feb 11
New Hampshire
primary
Sat., Feb 22
Mon., Feb 3
Nevada
caucuses
Iowa
caucuses
Sat., Feb 29
South Carolina
primary
In 2008, Barack Obama broke out of the pack with a surprisingly decisive Iowa win, putting him in a front-runner position he never relinquished. In 2016, Hillary Clinton countered a major victory by Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire with wins in Nevada and South Carolina, establishing a lead among nonwhite voters that guided her to eventual victory.
[Which of these 2020 Democrats agrees with you most?]
None of the four states fully reflect America, and the least representative two go first. Taken together, though, the unique qualities of each mean several key blocs of voters get at least one opportunity to have an outsized role in the early nomination process.
The nomination starts rural, but then gets more urban
Large metro areas >1M
Other metros <1M
Small town
Rural
Iowa
Sioux City
Cedar Rapids
Des Moines
New Hampshire
Manchester
Nevada
Reno
Las Vegas
South Carolina
Greenville
Columbia
Charleston
Large metro areas >1M
Other metros <1M
Small town
Rural
Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
South Carolina
Greenville
Sioux City
Reno
Columbia
Cedar Rapids
Des Moines
Charleston
Las Vegas
Manchester
Large metro areas >1M
Other metros <1M
Small town
Rural
Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
South Carolina
Greenville
Sioux City
Reno
Columbia
Cedar Rapids
Des Moines
Charleston
Las Vegas
Manchester
More than half of Americans live in a large metropolitan area of more than a million people. But none of the February primary states fall near that average. Just one in 16 Americans lives in a rural county, and yet the nomination process begins in one of the most rural states in the nation. In fact, each of the four early states overrepresents a different kind of community.
United States population
Small town
8%
6
Metro 30%
Large metro areas 56%
Rural
Iowa
59%
16%
25%
New Hampshire
32%
31%
34%
4
Nevada
73%
17%
8%
South Carolina
8%
77%
9%
6
Population distribution by counties
If Iowa gives rural voters a chance to be heard, New Hampshire is all about small towns; areas with towns of over 10,000 account for about a third of the state’s population.
[Iowa is a myth. Should we believe in it?]
Nevada falls at the other extreme: It is one of the most urbanized populations in the United States. The state’s wide-open spaces are mostly empty of people, and three quarters of the state’s population is packed into Las Vegas. South Carolina is uniquely urbanized in a different way. With no giant metro, South Carolina leads the nation with people in suburbs and smaller cities.
The last two have some diversity, but Iowa and New Hampshire do not
Former vice president Joe Biden at a campaign event in Cedar Falls, Iowa, on Jan. 27. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
Minorities have little representation in the first two contests. States do not get much more heavily white than Iowa, with caucuses on Feb. 3 , and New Hampshire, which follows with a primary on Feb. 11.
United States population
Black
Other
White 61%
18%
12%
Hispanic
Asian
Iowa
86%
6
3
New Hampshire
90%
4
Nevada
50%
29%
9%
8%
South Carolina
64%
6
27%
More diversity enters the picture on Feb. 22 with the Nevada caucuses. Nevada has one of the highest concentrations of Hispanics in the nation, and South Carolina follows on Feb. 29 as one of the states with the highest share of African Americans. Nevada is one of the least white states in the country. While South Carolina still has roughly the same white population as the United States overall, the strong Democratic lean of its black voters means the primary is much more nonwhite than the state.
The position of the last two states in the February primary calendar is recent history. The Democratic Party moved them up for the 2008 election to offset the lack of diversity of New Hampshire and Iowa, and to represent more regions of the United States. In a Democratic National Committee vote, Nevada was selected over Arizona, and South Carolina was chosen over Alabama.
Older Democrats are overrepresented
Older adults, always among the most regular voters, play an oversized role in the earliest contests. Over a third of registered Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire are age 65 or older, well above the U.S. average.
Jobs in
goods
industries
Median
household
income
Registered Democrats
College
education
< 25 years old
65+
9%
26%
32%
$60K
19%
US
IA
7
34
25
28
59K
NH
38
2
20
37
74K
NV
9
26
13
24
58K
SC
24
51K
9
21
27
Jobs in
goods
industries
Median
household
income
Registered Democrats
College
education
< 25 years old
65+
32%
9%
26%
19%
$60K
United States
Iowa
7%
34%
25%
28%
$59K
New Hampshire
38%
2%
20%
37%
$74K
Nevada
26%
$58K
9%
13%
24%
South Carolina
9%
24%
21%
27%
$51K
Workers in goods-producing industries like manufacturing and agriculture are also quite common in the early states, especially in Iowa and South Carolina. They may provide an insight into who could do well among blue-collar voters in key Midwestern swing states. But Nevada ranks near the bottom on workers who make or grow products. Service workers, who make up a lion’s share of the national economy but get less attention politically — are the stars in Nevada, where Las Vegas union members are a critical voting block.
So who may be underrepresented in February? With the exception of New Hampshire, the residents of the early states have disproportionately lower income and levels of education. None of the states rank high in young registered Democrats, and workers in non-goods industries like technology or trade get short shrift as well.
Few voters participate
Democratic presidential candidates Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (Hawaii); former vice president Joe Biden; Sens. Amy Klobuchar (Minn.), Elizabeth Warren (Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.); former South Bend, Ind., mayor Pete Buttigieg; and billionaire activist Tom Steyer walk in the Martin Luther King Jr. Day Parade in Columbia, S.C. (Randall Hill/Reuters)
More than 12 million Americans live in these first four states. But the number of eligible voters is smaller, and the number that actually participates in the Democratic nominating process is smaller still.
In 2016, only about 900,000 Americans were part of these Democratic primaries and caucuses, placing critical decisions in the hands of about as many people as live in Columbus, Ohio.
Fewer Democrats participated in primaries than voted for Clinton in 2016
Each circle represents 10,000 votes
Primary/caucus
votes
Clinton
Votes
Iowa
172,000
654,000
New Hampshire
251,000
349,000
Nevada
84,000
539,000
South Carolina
369,000
855,000
4 early states combined
876,000
2,397,000
Fewer Democrats participated in primaries than voted for Clinton in 2016
Each circle represents 10,000 votes
Primary/caucus
votes
Clinton
Votes
172,000
654,000
Iowa
251,000
349,000
New Hampshire
84,000
539,000
Nevada
369,000
855,000
South Carolina
4 early states
combined
876,000
2,397,000
Why the big differences in turnout between the states? Iowa and Nevada hold caucuses, a time-intensive and extremely public method of voting that can drive people away. The Iowa and Nevada caucuses are both closed, but both do allow for same-day registration (with Nevada making the switch in 2019).
New Hampshire and South Carolina hold primaries instead. Those primaries are also open, meaning you do not need to be a registered Democrat to participate.
[How do the Iowa caucuses work, and how are they different this year?]
In 2016, these early states made up just 3 percent Democratic primary voters. Yet their early influence far exceeded those numbers. In 2020 they set the stage for the March 3 Super Tuesday primaries, when 14 states with about 26 million Democratic registered voters will have their say.
Where the race stands in the next two primary and caucus states
The Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary are now over, if not conclusive. So candidates are moving on to the next two early states.
About this story: This story is based on population demographics from the American Community Survey, voter registration data from L2 and election results from the Associated Press and the Elections Project.
