Update (March 2): After additional early ballots were counted, the 2020 vote total in South Carolina has exceeded 538,000. The analysis below covers votes counted as of 8 a.m. on March 1.
South Carolina’s presidential primary may signal a shift in the Democratic race, not just because of who won but because of who voted.
Around 528,000 South Carolinians turned out in the 2020 Democratic primary, a remarkable show of voter engagement compared to four years ago. Former vice president Joe Biden ran up his totals in black communities but also won areas dominated by groups he has struggled to connect with, notably white and higher income voters. These areas showed some of the largest turnout increases in the state.
Overall, South Carolina’s vote total was a massive increase over the 373,000 turnout for 2016 and nearly matched the votes cast in Obama’s 2008 primary win.
Percentage change in votes by precinct, 2016 vs. 2020 Democratic primary
Greenville
Rock Hill
Florence
Columbia
Myrtle
Beach
Aiken
Percentage
increase
in vote
Charleston
25%
100%
Increase
300%
Decrease
Rock Hill
Greenville
Florence
Columbia
Myrtle
Beach
Aiken
Percentage
change in
vote
Charleston
25%
100%
Increase
300%
Decrease
Increase
Decrease
Rock Hill
Greenville
Florence
Columbia
Aiken
Myrtle
Beach
Percentage
change
in vote
25%
50%
100%
Charleston
200%
300%
Rock Hill
Greenville
Florence
Columbia
Aiken
Myrtle Beach
Increase
Decrease
Percentage change
in vote
25%
Charleston
50%
100%
200%
300%
Rock Hill
Greenville
Florence
Columbia
Aiken
Myrtle Beach
Increase
Decrease
Percentage change
in vote
25%
Charleston
50%
100%
200%
300%
According to exit polling, Biden won 61 percent of black voters. These voters made up more than half of the electorate, and they were easily the most important block for his victory. However, a precinct-level analysis by The Post shows that while statewide turnout increased by about 40 percent over 2016, the parts of the state that saw the largest spikes were the most white and upper income.
[Which of these 2020 Democrats agrees with you most?]
Biden’s 29-point margin among these demographics may be surprising given his poor performances in Iowa and New Hampshire. The size of his win suggests he attracted different types of energized Democratic voters, or at least resisted inroads from other candidates.
Blackest precincts
Increase
Decrease
Percentage change
in vote
25%
100%
300%
Greenville
Rock Hill
Florence
Columbia
Myrtle
Beach
Aiken
Charleston
Votes
146,355 (+26% from 2016)
Biden’s
margin
of victory
+46
Whitest precincts
Increase
Decrease
Percentage change
in vote
25%
100%
300%
Greenville
Rock Hill
Florence
Columbia
Myrtle
Beach
Aiken
Charleston
Votes
127,517 (+131%)
Biden’s
margin
of victory
+18
Blackest precincts
Increase
Decrease
Percentage change
in vote
25%
100%
300%
Rock Hill
Greenville
Florence
Columbia
Myrtle
Beach
Aiken
Charleston
Votes
146,355 (+26% from 2016)
Biden’s margin
of victory
+46
Whitest precincts
Increase
Decrease
Percentage change
in vote
25%
100%
300%
Rock Hill
Greenville
Florence
Columbia
Myrtle
Beach
Aiken
Charleston
127,517 (+131%)
Votes
Biden’s margin
of victory
+18
Blackest precincts
Rock Hill
Greenville
Florence
Columbia
Aiken
Myrtle
Beach
Increase
Decrease
Percentage
change in vote
Percentage
change in vote
25%
25%
Charleston
50%
50%
100%
100%
200%
200%
300%
300%
146,355 (+26% from 2016)
Votes
+46
Biden’s margin
of victory
Whitest precincts
Rock Hill
Greenville
Florence
Columbia
Aiken
Myrtle
Beach
Increase
Increase
Decrease
Decrease
Percentage
change in vote
Percentage
change in vote
25%
25%
Charleston
50%
50%
100%
100%
200%
200%
300%
300%
Votes
127,517 (+131%)
Biden’s margin
of victory
+18
Blackest precincts
Whitest precincts
Greenville
Greenville
Rock Hill
Rock Hill
Florence
Florence
Columbia
Columbia
Myrtle Beach
Myrtle
Beach
Aiken
Aiken
Increase
Decrease
Percentage change
in vote
Charleston
Charleston
25%
100%
300%
Votes
146,355 (+26% from 2016)
Votes
127,517 (+131%)
Biden’s margin
of victory
+46
Biden’s margin
of victory
+18
Blackest precincts
Whitest precincts
Rock Hill
Rock Hill
Greenville
Greenville
Florence
Florence
Columbia
Increase
Columbia
Decrease
Myrtle
Beach
Myrtle
Beach
Aiken
Percentage change
in vote
Aiken
25%
100%
300%
Charleston
Charleston
Votes
146,355 (+26% from 2016)
Votes
127,517 (+131%)
Biden’s margin
of victory
+46
Biden’s margin
of victory
+18
These maps show how turnout jumped, sometimes in unexpected ways, across precincts with different demographics.
Across the core of Biden’s geographic base, the precincts with the highest concentration of blacks, the number of voters jumped by a quarter over the 2016 Democratic primary. At Orangeburg’s Brookdale Elementary School precinct, south of Columbia and a mile from historically black South Carolina State University, 589 people voted, 154 more than four years ago, and Biden won by more than 60 percentage points. Biden won every precinct in this group, which includes swaths of rural areas as well as cities and towns.
Turnout jumped even more, more than doubling from 2016, in precincts with the most whites. These areas include coastal communities like Charleston, with some of the wealthiest parts of the state, as well as the Charlotte suburbs near Rock Hill and the far western foothills. About half of the 160 precincts that Sanders won are in this group, and his supporters may be credited for some of the added voters.
Biden won only 40 percent of voters of these most-white areas but still performed 18 points better than Sanders. According to exit polls, he beat Sanders statewide among white voters 33 percent to 23 percent.
Supporters wait for former vice president Joe Biden to speak after he was declared winner of the South Carolina primary. (Luke Sharrett for The Washington Post)
South Carolina’s primaries are open, and voters can decide year-to-year to take part in a party’s contest. Unlike 2008 and 2016, there was no Republican presidential primary held in the state this year, so some Republican-leaning voters probably participated. According to exit polls, just five percent of 2020 voters identified as Republicans, but 26 percent identified as “independent or something else.” In 2016, that figure was 16 percent.
OLDEST precincts
Increase
Decrease
Percentage change
in vote
25%
100%
300%
Greenville
Rock Hill
Florence
Columbia
Myrtle
Beach
Aiken
Charleston
Votes
127,222 (+89% from 2016)
Biden’s margin
of victory
+32
YOUNGEST precincts
Increase
Decrease
Percentage change
in votes
25%
100%
300%
Greenville
Rock Hill
Florence
Columbia
Myrtle
Beach
Aiken
Charleston
Votes
156,954 (+60%)
Biden’s margin
of victory
+22
OLDEST precincts
Increase
Decrease
Percentage change
in vote
25%
100%
300%
Rock Hill
Greenville
Florence
Columbia
Myrtle
Beach
Aiken
Charleston
127,222 (+89% from 2016)
Votes
+32
Biden’s margin
of victory
youngest precincts
Increase
Decrease
Percentage change
in vote
25%
100%
300%
Rock Hill
Greenville
Florence
Columbia
Myrtle
Beach
Aiken
Charleston
Votes
156,954 (+60%)
Biden’s margin
of victory
+22
OLDEST precincts
Rock Hill
Greenville
Florence
Columbia
Aiken
Myrtle
Beach
Increase
Decrease
Decrease
Percentage
change in vote
Percentage
change in vote
25%
25%
Charleston
50%
50%
100%
100%
200%
200%
300%
300%
Votes
127,222 (+89% from 2016)
Biden’s margin
of victory
+32
YOUNGEST precincts
Rock Hill
Greenville
Florence
Columbia
Aiken
Myrtle
Beach
Increase
Decrease
Decrease
Percentage
change in vote
Percentage
change in vote
Charleston
25%
25%
50%
50%
100%
100%
200%
200%
300%
300%
Votes
156,954 (+60%)
Biden’s margin
of victory
+22
OLDEST precincts
youngeST precincts
Greenville
Rock Hill
Greenville
Rock Hill
Florence
Florence
Columbia
Columbia
Myrtle Beach
Myrtle
Beach
Aiken
Aiken
Increase
Decrease
Percentage change
in vote
Charleston
Charleston
25%
100%
300%
Votes
127,222 (+89% from 2016)
Votes
156,954 (+60%)
Biden’s margin
of victory
+32
Biden’s margin
of victory
+22
OLDEST precincts
youngEST precincts
Rock Hill
Rock Hill
Greenville
Greenville
Florence
Florence
Columbia
Increase
Columbia
Decrease
Myrtle
Beach
Myrtle
Beach
Aiken
Percentage change
in vote
Aiken
25%
100%
300%
Charleston
Charleston
Votes
127,222 (+89% from 2016)
Votes
156,954 (+60%)
Biden’s margin
of victory
+32
Biden’s margin
of victory
+22
South Carolina, especially its growing coastal communities, is a magnet for retirees. On Tuesday, voting almost doubled in precincts with the most registered voters over age 64. They represent another sector of Biden’s base, and he won a majority of their votes.
Turnout also surged across precincts with the most voters under age 45. Sanders won an additional 29 precincts here. At upstate Pickens County’s west-central precinct, which votes at the Central-Clemson Library, turnout jumped from 62 to 148, and Sanders won with 57 votes.
Across these younger precincts as a whole, Biden won by more than 20 points. While Sanders still was the most popular candidate among 18- to 29-year-olds, Biden eked out a win among 30- to 44-year-olds. He had previously won seven percent of these voters in Nevada, his highest figure among the first three states.
Meena Khalili holds her daughter as she votes in the South Carolina primary at Logan Elementary School. (Matt McClain/The Washington Post)
Biden focused on South Carolina for months and scored a key endorsement from Rep. James E. Clyburn (D-S.C.) right before the primary. With Super Tuesday coming soon, a key question is whether South Carolina will turn out to be an outlier or the beginning of a trend.
Super Tuesday is heavy on Southern states, with Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama and Arkansas all participating. If Biden can hold onto the coalition of voters he drew in South Carolina — including his large edge among black voters — he’ll rack up delegate counts in these states. At the very least, that would narrow Sen. Bernie Sanders’s path to winning a majority of pledged delegates.
Super Tuesday
Before Super Tuesday
155 delegates
1,357 delegates
After Super Tuesday
2,467 delegates
N.H.
Vt.
Maine
Minn.
Iowa
Mass.
Nev.
Utah
Colo.
Calif.
Va.
N.C.
Tenn.
Okla.
Ark.
S.C.
Ala.
Texas
Amer. Samoa
Puerto Rico
Dem. Abroad
Guam
N. Marianas
Virgin Islands
Source: The Green Papers
THE WASHINGTON POST
Super Tuesday
Before Super Tuesday
155 delegates
1,357 delegates
After Super Tuesday
2,467 delegates
N.H.
Vt.
Maine
Minn.
Mass.
Iowa
Nev.
Utah
Colo.
Va.
Calif.
N.C.
Tenn.
Okla.
Ark.
Amer. Samoa
S.C.
Dem. Abroad
Ala.
N. Marianas
Texas
Puerto Rico
Guam
Virgin Islands
Source: The Green Papers
THE WASHINGTON POST
After Super Tuesday
Before Super Tuesday
Super Tuesday
1,357 delegates
155 delegates
2,467 delegates
N.H.
Wash.
Vt.
Maine
N.D.
Mont.
Minn.
Ore.
Wis.
N.Y.
Idaho
S.D.
Wyo.
Mich.
Mass.
Pa.
IA
Neb.
R.I.
Nev.
Ohio
Ind.
Ill.
Utah
Conn.
W.Va.
Colo.
Va.
Kan.
Calif.
N.J.
Mo.
Ky.
Del.
N.C.
Tenn.
Md.
Okla.
Ark.
Ariz.
N.M.
S.C.
D.C.
Ala.
Ga.
Miss.
La.
Texas
Fla.
Alaska
Amer. Samoa
Puerto Rico
Hawaii
Dem. Abroad
Guam
N. Marianas
Virgin Islands
Source: The Green Papers
THE WASHINGTON POST
After Super Tuesday
Before Super Tuesday
Super Tuesday
1,357 delegates
155 delegates
2,467 delegates
N.H.
Wash.
Vt.
Maine
N.D.
Mont.
Minn.
Ore.
Wis.
N.Y.
Idaho
S.D.
Wyo.
Mich.
Mass.
Pa.
IA
Neb.
R.I.
Nev.
Ohio
Ind.
Ill.
Utah
Conn.
Calif.
W.Va.
Colo.
Va.
Kan.
N.J.
Mo.
Ky.
Del.
N.C.
Tenn.
Md.
Okla.
Ark.
Ariz.
N.M.
S.C.
D.C.
Ala.
Ga.
Miss.
La.
Texas
Fla.
Alaska
Hawaii
Amer. Samoa
Puerto Rico
Dem. Abroad
Guam
N. Marianas
Virgin Islands
Source: The Green Papers
THE WASHINGTON POST
Before Super Tuesday
Super Tuesday
After Super Tuesday
1,357 delegates
2,467 delegates
155 delegates
N.H.
FEB. 11
Wash.
Maine
MARCH 10
Vt.
MARCH 3
Mont.
N.D.
MARCH 3
Minn.
JUNE 2
MARCH 10
Ore.
MARCH 3
Mass.
MARCH 3
Wis.
MAY 19
Idaho
N.Y.
S.D.
APRIL 7
MARCH 10
Mich.
APRIL 28
JUNE 2
Wyo.
R.I.
APRIL 28
MARCH 10
APRIL 4
Iowa
Pa.
Neb.
Nev.
Conn.
APRIL 28
APRIL 28
Ohio
FEB. 3
Ill.
MAY 12
Ind.
Utah
FEB. 22
N.J.
MARCH 17
JUNE 2
MARCH 17
Colo.
W.V.
Calif.
MARCH 3
MAY 5
Va.
Kan.
Del.
Mo.
APRIL 28
MARCH 3
MAY 12
Ky.
MARCH 3
MARCH 3
MAY 2
MARCH 10
Md.
MAY 19
APRIL 28
N.C.
Tenn.
D.C.
MARCH 3
JUNE 2
Okla.
Ariz.
MARCH 3
N.M.
Ark.
S.C.
MARCH 3
MARCH 17
FEB. 29
JUNE 2
MARCH 3
Ala.
Ga.
Miss.
Amer. Samoa
MARCH 3
MARCH
10
MARCH 3
MARCH 24
Dem. Abroad
MARCH 3-10
La.
Texas
N. Marianas
MARCH 14
APRIL 4
Alaska
MARCH 3
Fla.
Puerto Rico
MARCH 29
APRIL 4
Hawaii
MARCH 17
Guam
APRIL 4
MAY 2
Virgin Islands
JUNE 6
Source: The Green Papers
THE WASHINGTON POST
If Biden’s improvement among white, wealthier voters extends to primaries in New England and Minnesota, he could find himself on a path to clinching the nomination outright.
However, the former vice president is still unproven among Hispanic voters, which make up a negligible share of South Carolina’s electorate. These voters, which Sanders dominated in the Nevada caucuses, are critical to California and Texas, the two top delegate prizes of Super Tuesday. Super Tuesday also will be the first contests with Mike Bloomberg, former New York mayor, on the ballots.
About this story. The Post analyzed election returns and demographic characteristics of more than 2,000 S.C. precincts with available data for Democratic presidential primaries in 2016 and this year. The more than 500 precincts highlighted on each demographic map represent the top quarter of all precincts for each group. They were selected using precinct level census estimates from ESRI and voter registration data from L2. Election results, from the South Carolina Election Commission, are as of 8 a.m. March 1 and are unofficial.
Lenny Bronner contributed to this report.
