A couple enters a polling station in West Palm Beach during the Florida primary election on Aug. 18, 2020. (SAUL MARTINEZ/Saul Martinez)
President Trump and former vice president Joe Biden are locked in close races in Florida and Arizona, according to a pair of Washington Post-ABC News polls in two Sun Belt battlegrounds that the president won in 2016 that are crucial to his hopes for reelection in November.
In Florida, likely voters split 51 percent for Trump to 47 percent for Biden, while registered voters split 47 percent for Trump to 48 percent for Biden. In Arizona, Trump’s margin is even smaller, at 49 percent to Biden’s 48 percent among likely voters. Among Arizona’s registered voters, Trump is at 47 percent and Biden at 49 percent. All these differences are within the polls’ margins of sampling error.
FL & AZ
Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Florida and Arizona voters closely divided between Trump and Biden
Q: If the presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote/lean toward?
Among likely voters
Florida
Biden/Harris 47%
Error margin
Trump/Pence 51%
Arizona
Biden/Harris 48%
Trump/Pence 49%
Note: “Other,” “Neither” and “No opinion” not shown.
Source: Sept. 15-20, 2020, Washington Post-ABC News poll of 613 likely voters in Florida and 579 in Arizona with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points for results in each state.
Florida & Arizona
Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Florida and Arizona voters closely divided between Trump and Biden
Q: If the presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote/lean toward?
Among likely voters
Florida
Biden/Harris 47%
Error margin
Trump/Pence 51%
Arizona
Biden/Harris 48%
Trump/Pence 49%
Note: “Other,” “Neither” and “No opinion” not shown.
Source: Sept. 15-20, 2020, Washington Post-ABC News poll of 613 likely voters in Florida and 579 in Arizona with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points for results in each state.
Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Florida & Arizona
Florida and Arizona voters closely divided between Trump and Biden
Q: If the presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote/lean toward?
Among likely voters
Florida
Biden/Harris 47%
Error margin
Trump/Pence 51%
Arizona
Biden/Harris 48%
Trump/Pence 49%
Note: “Other,” “Neither” and “No opinion” not shown.
Source: Sept. 15-20, 2020, Washington Post-ABC News poll of 613 likely voters in Florida and 579 in Arizona with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points for results in each state.
The findings in the two surveys are better for the president than other polls conducted in the two states recently by other organizations. The Post’s average of polls this month shows Biden with a two-point advantage in Florida and a six-point advantage in Arizona.
[The Trailer: Arizona’s political geography]
Overall, the surveys illustrate that the national economy, despite its weakened state, remains Trump’s strongest issue, and it is helping him overcome voters’ disapproval of his handling of the coronavirus outbreak.
The poll also shows a close Senate race in Arizona, with Democratic nominee Mark Kelly at 49 percent to Republican Sen. Martha McSally’s 48 percent among likely voters. Kelly has a five-point edge among registered voters, 50 percent 45 percent. There appear to be few crossover voters, with 4 percent of likely voters who back Trump or Biden indicating they would flip to the opposite party in the Senate race.
Among the handful of battleground states, none is more important to the president than Florida, where a loss to Biden would cripple his chances of winning reelection and open up multiple avenues for the Democratic nominee to win an electoral college majority. Trump won the state by just over one percentage point in 2016, and both sides, and their allies, are throwing as many resources as possible into the competition there.
[The Trailer: Florida’s political geography]
Democrats see Arizona, which has voted for a Democratic presidential nominee only once since 1952, as a prime target to convert. A Biden victory there could offset a possible loss in Wisconsin, as the two states’ electoral votes are almost equal. Wisconsin and two other Rust Belt states, Michigan and Pennsylvania, flipped to Trump in 2016 despite usually siding with Democrats, and both campaigns have targeted those states this year.
In Florida and Arizona, the Latino vote will play a significant role in determining the winner, although the makeup of that vote is more varied in Florida than in Arizona.
In Florida, the Latino vote splits 52 percent for Biden and 39 percent for Trump, among registered voters, an advantage that doesn’t reach statistical significance because of a small sample size. Biden has struggled among some Latino voters, and his campaign has put renewed emphasis on reaching them. In 2016, Hillary Clinton carried Florida’s Latino vote 62 percent to 35 percent.
Florida
Washington Post-ABC News Poll
In Florida, Trump leads among White voters and men. Biden has a large lead among Black voters.
Vote choice by group among likely voters
Support
Biden
Support
Trump
40%
59%
Male
52
44
Female
38
60
White
Hispanic*
52
39
Black*
86
11
44
54
White college graduates
34
64
White non-college
45
51
Age 18-49
53
47
Age 50-64
44
52
Age 65+
*Hispanic and Black results among registered voters.
Note: “Other,” “Neither,” “Would not vote” and “No opinion” not shown.
Source: Sept. 15-20, 2020, Washington Post-ABC News poll of 613 likely voters in Florida with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. Error margins larger among subgroups.
Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Florida
In Florida, Trump leads among White voters and men. Biden has a large lead among Black voters.
Vote choice by group among likely voters
Support Biden
Support Trump
40%
59%
Male
52
44
Female
38
60
White
Hispanic*
52
39
Black*
86
11
44
54
White college graduates
34
64
White non-college
45
51
Age 18-49
53
47
Age 50-64
44
52
Age 65+
*Hispanic and Black results among registered voters.
Note: “Other,” “Neither,” “Would not vote” and “No opinion” not shown.
Source: Sept. 15-20, 2020, Washington Post-ABC News poll of 613 likely voters in Florida with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. Error margins larger among subgroups.
Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Florida
In Florida, Trump leads among White voters and men. Biden has a large lead among Black voters.
Vote choice by group among likely voters
Support Biden
Support Trump
40%
59%
Male
52
44
Female
38
60
White
Hispanic*
52
39
Black*
86
11
44
54
White college graduates
34
64
White non-college
45
51
Age 18-49
53
47
Age 50-64
44
52
Age 65+
*Hispanic and Black results among registered voters.
Note: “Other,” “Neither,” “Would not vote” and “No opinion” not shown.
Source: Sept. 15-20, 2020, Washington Post-ABC News poll of 613 likely voters in Florida with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. Error margins larger among subgroups.
In Arizona, Biden leads Trump among Latinos by 61 percent to 34 percent among registered voters. Four years ago, Clinton carried the Latino vote there by 61 percent to 31 percent, according to network exit polls.
The number of Latino likely voters in the two polls is not big enough to break out a separate, statistically reliable finding on the competition between Trump and Biden.
Among White voters, Trump’s candidacy is receiving a boost from those without college degrees. He leads Biden by 30 points (64 percent to 34 percent) among these voters in Florida and by 28 points (62 percent to 34 percent) in Arizona. A narrowing of that advantage in Rust Belt states has helped Biden.
Arizona
Washington Post-ABC News Poll
In Arizona, Biden leads among Hispanic voters and White college graduates. Trump leads among men and Whites without college degrees.
Vote choice by group among likely voters
Support
Biden
Support
Trump
43%
55%
Male
52
42
Female
43
54
White
Hispanic*
61
34
57
42
White college graduates
34
62
White non-college
56
39
Age 18-49
37
59
Age 50-64
44
54
Age 65+
*Hispanic results among registered voters.
Note: “Other,” “Neither,” “Would not vote” and “No opinion” not shown.
Source: Sept. 15-20, 2020, Washington Post-ABC News poll of 579 likely voters in Arizona with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. Error margins larger among subgroups.
Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Arizona
In Arizona, Biden leads among Hispanic voters and White college graduates. Trump leads among men and Whites without college degrees.
Vote choice by group among likely voters
Support Biden
Support Trump
43%
55%
Male
52
42
Female
43
54
White
Hispanic*
61
34
57
42
White college graduates
34
62
White non-college
56
39
Age 18-49
37
59
Age 50-64
44
54
Age 65+
*Hispanic results among registered voters.
Note: “Other,” “Neither,” “Would not vote” and “No opinion” not shown.
Source: Sept. 15-20, 2020, Washington Post-ABC News poll of 579 likely voters in Arizona with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. Error margins larger among subgroups.
Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Arizona
In Arizona, Biden leads among Hispanic voters and White college graduates. Trump leads among men and Whites without college degrees.
Vote choice by group among likely voters
Support Biden
Support Trump
43%
55%
Male
52
42
Female
43
54
White
Hispanic*
61
34
57
42
White college graduates
34
62
White non-college
56
39
Age 18-49
37
59
Age 50-64
44
54
Age 65+
*Hispanic results among registered voters.
Note: “Other,” “Neither,” “Would not vote” and “No opinion” not shown.
Source: Sept. 15-20, 2020, Washington Post-ABC News poll of 579 likely voters in Arizona with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. Error margins larger among subgroups.
White college graduates hold differing views in the two state polls, favoring Biden by a 15-point margin in Arizona (57 percent to Trump’s 42 percent), while in Florida, Trump holds a 10-point edge among White college graduates.
Older voters make up another crucial constituency in both states. In Florida, Trump has a slight advantage over Biden (52 percent to 44 percent) among likely voters 65 and older, but that is not as large as his 17-point margin against Clinton in 2016. Meanwhile, in Arizona, Trump edges Biden 54 percent to 44 percent among seniors, about the same as his margin over Clinton in the state.
[Interactive: See how older voters could swing the 2020 election]
As in many polls, more Trump supporters than Biden supporters express enthusiasm for their vote. About 2 in 3 Trump supporters in both states say they are “very enthusiastic” about their backing of the president. That compares with 59 percent of Biden supporters in Florida and 45 percent of his supporters in Arizona who express that same kind of enthusiasm in their vote for Biden.
President Trump arrives onstage during a campaign stop at Jupiter Inlet Lighthouse and Museum in Jupiter, Fla., on Sept. 8. (Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)
The president’s overall approval rating is identical in both states, with 47 percent of registered voters saying they approve of the job he is doing and 51 percent disapproving. Intensity runs against Trump, with 45 percent of Florida voters strongly disapproving of him while 35 percent strongly approve, with a similar pattern in Arizona.
On the economy, however, his numbers are net positive: 57 percent approving to 42 percent disapproving in Arizona; 54 percent approving and 43 percent disapproving in Florida. Trump’s positive numbers contrast to the assessment of the national economy by Florida and Arizona voters, where majorities say the economy is either “not so good” or “poor.”
Washington Post-ABC News Poll
FL & AZ
Trump gets positive ratings on the economy, but negative ratings for handling coronavirus
Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Trump is handling …
Among registered voters
Florida
His overall job
47%
Approve
51%
Disapprove
The economy
54%
43%
The coronavirus outbreak
45%
52%
Arizona
His overall job
47%
Approve
51%
Disapprove
The economy
57%
42%
The coronavirus outbreak
45%
54%
Source: Sept. 15-20, 2020, Washington Post-ABC News poll of 765 registered voters in Florida and 701 in Arizona with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points in Florida and +/- 4.5 points in Arizona.
Florida & Arizona
Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Trump gets positive ratings on the economy, but negative ratings for handling coronavirus
Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Trump is handling …
Among registered voters
Florida
47%
Approve
His overall job
51%
Disapprove
54%
The economy
43%
45%
The coronavirus
outbreak
52%
Arizona
47%
Approve
His overall job
51%
Disapprove
57%
The economy
42%
45%
The coronavirus
outbreak
54%
Source: Sept. 15-20, 2020, Washington Post-ABC News poll of 765 registered voters in Florida and 701 in Arizona with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points in Florida and +/- 4.5 points in Arizona.
Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Florida & Arizona
Trump gets positive ratings on the economy, but negative ratings for handling coronavirus
Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Trump is handling …
Among registered voters
Florida
47%
Approve
His overall job
51%
Disapprove
54%
The economy
43%
45%
The coronavirus
outbreak
52%
Arizona
47%
Approve
His overall job
51%
Disapprove
57%
The economy
42%
45%
The coronavirus
outbreak
54%
Source: Sept. 15-20, 2020, Washington Post-ABC News poll of 765 registered voters in Florida and 701 in Arizona with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points in Florida and +/- 4.5 points in Arizona.
The president’s campaign had begun to pivot toward an economic message in recent weeks before the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on Friday put the high court into the middle of the campaign debate. These polls were already in the field when Justice Ginsburg died.
The economy ranks as the single most important issue for voters in Arizona and Florida, with the coronavirus second. Closely ranked behind those two in both places are crime and safety, equal treatment of racial groups and health care. Voters most concerned about the economy overwhelmingly support Trump, while those who cite the coronavirus as the single most important issue overwhelmingly back Biden.
Concerning which candidate could better handle specific issues, Trump has an advantage on the economy, leading Biden by 11 points in Florida (52 percent to 41 percent) and 15 points in Arizona (56 percent to 41 percent). Biden’s strongest issue is which candidate would better handle “equal treatment of racial groups,” leading Trump by 11 points in Florida and by nine points in Arizona.
On the topic of whether they support or oppose recent protests against police treatment of Black people, 51 percent of Florida voters and 52 percent of Arizona voters say they support them.
Majorities of registered voters in both states (57 percent) say they are either “very” or “somewhat worried” that they or someone in their family might contract the coronavirus, with 7 percent in each state saying a family member has contracted the virus. Asked to evaluate Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, 54 percent of Arizona voters and 52 percent of Florida voters say they disapprove.
Voters in these states are more divided on which candidate would better handle the coronavirus outbreak in the future, with Biden ahead, 48 percent to 43 percent, in Florida and also ahead, 49 percent to 45 percent, in Arizona, although neither margin is statistically significant. Biden also has narrow edges in both states on health care and “discouraging violence at political protests,” while Trump has a slight edge on “crime and safety” in both states.
An identical majority of Trump’s supporters in each state (56 percent) say the economy is the single most important issue, and about a quarter name crime and safety. About a third of Biden supporters in each state cite the coronavirus as the most important issue in their vote, and about a quarter name equal treatment of racial groups.
Trump is narrowly judged the stronger leader in both states. Biden is seen as more honest and trustworthy and as better understanding the problems “of people like you” but by small margins.
A majority of Florida and Arizona voters (56 percent and 64 percent, respectively) say they plan to cast their votes before Election Day. Nearly 4 in 10 Florida voters and 1 in 3 Arizona voters say they will vote on Election Day. In the 2016 general election, more than 6 in 10 voters in both states voted early.
[At least 84% of American voters can cast ballots by mail in the fall]
In Florida, 29 percent say they will vote by mail, 20 percent say they plan to vote early at a polling location and 7 percent say they will drop off their ballot at a designated location.
In Arizona, 49 percent say they will use the mail to vote, and 11 percent say they will drop a ballot off at a drop box. Just 3 percent say they will vote early in person.
These Washington Post-ABC News polls were conducted by telephone Sept. 15-20, 2020, among a random sample of 765 registered voters in Florida, including 613 likely voters, and a random sample of 701 registered voters in Arizona, including 579 likely voters. Roughly 8 in 10 respondents in both states were reached on cellphones, with the remainder reached on landlines. The margin of sampling error for results among registered voters is plus or minus four percentage points in Florida and 4.5 points in Arizona. Among likely voters, the error margin is 4.5 points in both states.
Graphics by Daniela Santamariña. Alauna Safarpour contributed to this report.
