Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden speaks at Michigan State Fairgrounds in Novi, Mich., on Oct. 16. (Carolyn Kaster/AP)
Former vice president Joe Biden continues to outpace President Trump in two crucial Midwest battlegrounds, currently holding a slight lead over the president in Michigan while showing a much more substantial advantage in Wisconsin, according to a pair of Washington Post-ABC News polls.
The surveys show Biden narrowly ahead of Trump among likely voters in Michigan by 51 percent to 44 percent, with Libertarian Party nominee Jo Jorgensen at 3 percent. In Wisconsin, likely voters favor Biden by 57 percent to 40 percent, with Jorgensen at 2 percent. Among all registered voters, Biden’s edge in Michigan is five points, while he leads by 17 points in Wisconsin.
MI & WI
Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Biden has wide lead in Wisconsin and is narrowly ahead of Trump in Michigan
Q: If the presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote/lean toward?
Among likely voters
Michigan
Biden/Harris 51%
Error margin
Trump/Pence 44%
Wisconsin
Biden/Harris 57%
Error margin
Trump/Pence 40%
Note: “Other,” “Neither” and “No opinion” not shown.
Source: Oct. 20-25, 2020, Washington Post-ABC News poll among 798 likely voters in Michigan and 809 likely voters in Wisconsin. The error margin among likely voters in both states is +/- 4 percentage points.
Michigan & Wisconsin
Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Biden has wide lead in Wisconsin and is narrowly ahead of Trump in Michigan
Q: If the presidential election were held today, for whom would
you vote/lean toward?
Among likely voters
Michigan
Biden/Harris 51%
Error margin
Trump/Pence 44%
Wisconsin
Biden/Harris 57%
Error margin
Trump/Pence 40%
Note: Support for Jorgensen, Hawkins, “Other,” “None,” “Would not vote” and “No opinion” not shown.
Source: Oct. 20-25, 2020, Washington Post-ABC News poll among 798 likely voters in Michigan and 809 likely voters in Wisconsin. The error margin among likely voters in both states is +/- 4 percentage points.
Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Michigan & Wisconsin
Biden has wide lead in Wisconsin and is narrowly ahead of Trump in Michigan
Q: If the presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote/lean toward?
Among likely voters
Biden/Harris 51%
Michigan
Error margin
Trump/Pence 44%
Biden/Harris 57%
Error margin
Wisconsin
Trump/Pence 40%
Note: Support for Jorgensen, Hawkins, “Other,” “None,” “Would not vote” and “No opinion” not shown.
Source: Oct. 20-25, 2020, Washington Post-ABC News poll among 798 likely voters in Michigan and 809
likely voters in Wisconsin. The error margin among likely voters in both states is +/- 4 percentage points.
Biden’s margins in both states are driven by overwhelming support among female likely voters. He leads Trump by 24 points among those women in Michigan and by 30 points in Wisconsin. Biden trails Trump among Michigan men by double digits, and the two are running about even among men in Wisconsin.
The findings suggest concerns about the coronavirus are weighing heavily on Trump’s candidacy, particularly in Wisconsin, which has seen case counts climb to record levels in recent weeks. When it comes to handling the pandemic, Biden is trusted more than Trump by double digits in both states, and large majorities support their state’s rules on masks and restrictions on businesses and public gatherings.
In the contested Michigan Senate race, Democratic Sen. Gary Peters has a small edge over Republican challenger John James, by 52 percent to 46 percent among likely voters and by 49 percent to 45 percent among registered voters.
[The six political states of Michigan]
Along with Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are among a trio of states seen as vitally important to both the president and the former vice president in their efforts to assemble the 270 electoral votes needed for victory. Trump carried all three in 2016, shocking Democrats who had long enjoyed victories there, but by less than one percentage point each and a collective margin of fewer than 78,000 votes. Biden has held a steady lead in the polls in all three since summer.
The Wisconsin findings are significantly more bullish for Biden than some other public polls, including a Marquette Law School poll released Wednesday finding Biden with a narrow five-point edge, although two other October surveys gave the former vice president a lead in the low double-digits. A month ago, a Post-ABC poll showed Biden with a lead of six points among likely voters in the state.
[The seven political states of Wisconsin]
While the Wisconsin poll indicates Biden has gained ground in the state, some of the shift may be due to variation in random sample surveys. Slightly more registered voters in the current poll report having voted for Clinton than Trump in 2016, whereas the previous survey showed voters essentially split. If the survey is adjusted to match the 2016 election result, Biden maintains a 12-point lead.
With early voting underway in both states, interest in the election is extremely high. Nearly 7 in 10 voters in Wisconsin and more than 6 in 10 in Michigan say they are following the campaign very closely. In both states, more than 9 in 10 say they are either certain to vote or already have voted. The polls find that almost 4 in 10 likely voters in each state say they have already cast their ballots.
Majorities in both states now say they plan to vote before Election Day. In Wisconsin, that marks a shift from a month ago, when a bare majority of likely voters (51 percent) said they planned to vote on Election Day. That has dropped to 39 percent, with 60 percent saying they will vote early or already have done so, including 37 percent who said they already voted.
The polls suggest Election Day turnout will be critical for Trump to close the gap with Biden. Trump leads among likely voters who plan to vote on Election Day, with 65 percent support in Michigan and 70 percent in Wisconsin. Among voters who have already voted or plan to do so before Election Day, over 7 in 10 in both Michigan and Wisconsin support Biden.
Trump voters continue to show more enthusiasm for their candidate, with 7 in 10 Michigan supporters and over 3 in 4 Wisconsin backers saying they are very enthusiastic about voting for the president. For Biden, 54 percent of Michigan voters and 56 percent of Wisconsin voters express a similar level of enthusiasm about their support of the former vice president.
[How turnout and swing voters could get Trump or Biden to 270]
Wisconsin is one of the nation’s coronavirus hot spots, with cases surging there recently. The poll shows increased concerns among voters about the virus, with 70 percent saying they are very or somewhat worried that they or a family member might catch the virus or has already contracted it. That is an increase of seven points in the past month. The share of Wisconsin voters who are “very worried” is up from 23 percent in early September to 29 percent in the latest survey.
As fears of the virus rise in Wisconsin, perceptions of Trump’s performance as president have sagged. His overall approval rating is now 41 percent positive and 58 percent negative. Approval of his handling of the coronavirus pandemic stands at 39 percent positive and 59 percent negative, compared with 44 percent positive and 54 percent negative in September. Strong disapproval has risen from 47 percent to 54 percent since September.
Wisconsin voters trust Biden more than Trump by 20 points to handle the outbreak, an increase from the narrow seven-point edge Biden held on the issue in September. Among independents, trust in Biden has increased by 17 points, from 42 percent in September to 59 percent in the latest poll.
MI & WI
Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Michigan and Wisconsin voters trust Biden over Trump on handling the coronavirus
Among registered voters
Michigan
Trust Biden more
Trust Trump more
44%
48%
The economy
The coronavirus
outbreak
53%
39%
Wisconsin
52%
44%
The economy
The coronavirus
outbreak
57%
37%
Note: “Other,” “Neither” and “No opinion” not shown.
Source: Oct. 20-25, 2020, Washington Post-ABC News poll among 902 registered voters in Michigan and 906 registered voters in Wisconsin. The error margin among likely voters in both states is +/- 3.5 percentage points.
Michigan & Wisconsin
Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Michigan and Wisconsin voters trust Biden over Trump on handling the coronavirus
Among registered voters
Michigan
Trust Biden more
Trust Trump more
44%
48%
The economy
The coronavirus
outbreak
53%
39%
Wisconsin
52%
44%
The economy
The coronavirus
outbreak
57%
37%
Note: “Other,” “Neither” and “No opinion” not shown.
Source: Oct. 20-25, 2020, Washington Post-ABC News poll among 902 registered voters in Michigan and 906 registered voters in Wisconsin. The error margin among likely voters in both states is +/- 3.5 percentage points.
Michigan & Wisconsin
Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Michigan and Wisconsin voters trust Biden over Trump on handling the coronavirus
Among registered voters
Michigan
Trust Biden more
Trust Trump more
44%
48%
The economy
53%
39%
The coronavirus outbreak
Wisconsin
52%
44%
The economy
57%
37%
The coronavirus outbreak
Note: “Both,” “Neither” and “No opinion” not shown.
Source: Oct. 20-25, 2020, Washington Post-ABC News poll among 902 registered voters in Michigan and 906 registered voters in Wisconsin. The error margin among likely voters in both states is +/- 3.5 percentage points.
On the economy, Trump’s Wisconsin approval rating is now roughly divided, with 47 percent approving and 50 percent disapproving. Last month, his economic rating was net positive by seven points. Since September, the president has also lost his narrow five-point edge over Biden on who is better able to handle the economy, with 52 percent of Wisconsin voters now saying they trust Biden more on this issue, while 44 percent say they trust Trump more.
In Michigan, Trump’s economic approval is in positive territory, 52 percent to 44 percent, which contributes to his narrower deficit in the state. His overall job approval stands at 46 percent positive and 52 percent negative; his handling of the coronavirus is worse, at 42 percent positive and 55 percent negative. There are no comparable Post-ABC findings in Michigan from last month.
President Trump walks with first lady Melania Trump before boarding Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews, Md., for a day of campaign rallies in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska on Oct. 27. (Evan Vucci/AP)
Both states are led by Democratic governors — Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan and Tony Evers in Wisconsin — and their restrictions aimed at containing the spread of the virus have turned into partisan battles.
In both states, nearly 7 in 10 registered voters support their state’s current restrictions on businesses and public gatherings and mask requirements, including majorities (56 percent) who strongly support those rules. But there are significant partisan divisions. In Wisconsin, more than 9 in 10 Democrats and about 7 in 10 independents back the rules, while 6 in 10 Republicans oppose them. In Michigan, the divisions are similar, though not quite 6 in 10 Republicans are opposed.
Whitmer and Trump have sparred over the virus, with the president repeatedly disparaging the first-term governor and, at one point, tweeting, “Liberate Michigan” in opposition to the restrictions she had imposed. Recently, she was the target of an alleged plot to kidnap her before the election. More than a dozen arrests have been made in the case.
A plurality (46 percent) of registered voters in Michigan say Trump is more to blame for the clashes between the two leaders, compared with 23 percent who say Whitmer is to blame, while 27 percent say the two bear equal responsibility. Wisconsin voters view the controversy between the president and Whitmer similarly, although more have no opinion on the matter.
Between the presidential candidates, Biden fares better than Trump when compared on two attributes. In both states, he is seen as more “honest and trustworthy” than Trump and as the candidate who better understands “the problems of people like you.” Biden’s margins on honesty and empathy in Wisconsin are significantly larger than in Michigan.
In Wisconsin, Biden is also judged as the stronger leader by a margin of nine points. In Michigan, the two are judged about evenly on that measure.
One reason for Biden’s lead in Wisconsin is that he is doing a better job of holding his base there than is Trump. He is supported by 98 percent of Democrats, while Trump is backed by 88 percent of Republicans, with independents at 59 percent to 35 percent in Biden’s favor.
When those independents who lean to one party or the other are factored into findings, Biden has the support of 97 percent of Democrats and Democratic leaners, while Trump receives 84 percent of Republicans and Republican leaners.
[The U.S. has already hit 48% of total 2016 voting]
Trump is winning 89 percent of Wisconsin voters who say they backed him in 2016, compared with Biden’s 98 percent among those who say they voted for Clinton. In addition, Biden is winning likely voters who say they either did not support Clinton or Trump in 2016 or did not vote that year by about 2 to 1 (59 percent to 28 percent).
Biden also appears to be cutting significantly into part of Trump’s base in Wisconsin. Among White women without college degrees who sided with Trump in 2016, Biden is leading by double digits. He trails by double digits among White men without college degrees. Meanwhile, Biden holds even bigger leads than Clinton enjoyed among White men and women with college degrees.
Nearly 4 in 10 White women without a college degree in Wisconsin say they are “very worried” that they or a family member will catch the coronavirus (38 percent), compared with 13 percent of White men without college degrees.
Overall, Biden leads by massive margins among voters worried about infections or who have a family member who caught it — by 47 points among this group in Michigan (71 percent to 24 percent) and 50 percent in Wisconsin (73 percent to 23 percent). Trump leads by more than 60 points in both states among voters who are “not too worried” or “not at all worried” about coronavirus infections in their family.
MI & WI
Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Support for Trump and Biden is closely tied to fears of coronavirus and views of state restrictions
Among likely voters
Support
Biden
Support
Trump
Michigan
51%
44%
Likely voters overall
Worried about family catching
coronavirus/Already caught it
71
24
Not too/Not at all worried
about coronavirus
15
78
Support state’s rules on
masks/businesses
70
25
Oppose state’s rules on
masks/businesses
9
85
Wisconsin
57%
40%
Likely voters overall
Worried about family catching
coronavirus/Already caught it
73
23
Not too/Not at all worried
about coronavirus
16
82
Support state’s rules on
masks/businesses
77
20
Oppose state’s rules on
masks/businesses
10
88
Note: “Other,” “Neither” and “No opinion” not shown.
Source: Oct. 20-25, 2020, Washington Post-ABC News poll among 798 likely voters in Michigan and 809 likely voters in Wisconsin. The error margin among likely voters in both states is +/- 4 percentage points. Error margin larger among subgroups.
Michigan & Wisconsin
Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Support for Trump and Biden is closely tied to fears of coronavirus and views of state restrictions
Among likely voters
Support
Biden
Support
Trump
Michigan
51%
44%
Likely voters overall
Worried about family catching
coronavirus/Already caught it
71
24
Not too/Not at all worried
about coronavirus
15
78
Support state’s rules on
masks/businesses
70
25
Oppose state’s rules on
masks/businesses
85
9
Wisconsin
57%
40%
Likely voters overall
Worried about family catching
coronavirus/Already caught it
73
23
Not too/Not at all worried
about coronavirus
16
82
Support state’s rules on
masks/businesses
77
20
Oppose state’s rules on
masks/businesses
10
88
Note: Support for Jorgensen, Hawkins, “Other,” “None,” “Would not vote” and “No opinion” not shown.
Source: Oct. 20-25, 2020, Washington Post-ABC News poll among 798 likely voters in Michigan and 809 likely voters in Wisconsin. The error margin among likely voters in both states is +/- 4 percentage points. Error margin larger among subgroups.
Michigan & Wisconsin
Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Support for Trump and Biden is closely tied to fears of coronavirus and views of state restrictions
Among likely voters
Michigan
Support Biden
Support Trump
51%
44%
Likely voters overall
Worried about family catching
coronavirus/Already caught it
71
24
Not too/Not at all worried
about coronavirus
15
78
Support state’s rules on
masks/businesses
70
25
Oppose state’s rules on
masks/businesses
9
85
Wisconsin
57%
40%
Likely voters overall
Worried about family catching
coronavirus/Already caught it
73
23
Not too/Not at all worried
about coronavirus
16
82
Support state’s rules on
masks/businesses
77
20
Oppose state’s rules on
masks/businesses
10
88
Note: Support for Jorgensen, Hawkins, “Other,” “None,” “Would not vote” and “No opinion” not shown.
Source: Oct. 20-25, 2020, Washington Post-ABC News poll among 798 likely voters in Michigan and 809 likely voters in Wisconsin. The error margin among likely voters in both states is +/- 4 percentage points. Error margin larger among subgroups.
In Michigan, Trump is doing slightly better at holding his Republican base than in Wisconsin, with 92 percent support, just a tick below Biden’s 94 percent support among Democrats. Also, Trump has 51 percent support among White likely voters but Biden has the support of 81 percent of non-White voters. Biden leads by 89 percent to 6 percent among Black registered voters, just shy of Clinton’s 92 percent support in 2016, according to network exit polls.
Trump has an overwhelming lead among White men without college degrees in Michigan and roughly splits the vote with Biden among White women without degrees and White men with degrees. Meanwhile, Biden has an overwhelming lead among White women with college degrees.
In another demographic shift, majorities of older voters in both states are currently backing Biden. He has a wide lead of 61 percent to 37 percent in Wisconsin and a slimmer lead of 55 percent to 43 percent in Michigan among voters age 65 and above. Four years ago, Trump narrowly carried these older voters in Michigan and split about evenly with Clinton in Wisconsin.
Both Washington Post-ABC News polls were conducted Oct. 20-25 among random samples of adults, registered voters and likely voters in Michigan and Wisconsin. In Michigan, 74 percent of respondents were reached on cellphones and in Wisconsin, 71 percent were reached on cellphones, with the remainder reached on landlines. The error margin among the sample of 902 registered voters in Michigan and 906 registered voters in Wisconsin is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Among the sample of 789 likely voters in Michigan and 809 likely voters in Wisconsin, it is four points.
Graphics by Daniela Santamariña. Alauna Safarpour contributed to this report.
