Good morning! Hope everyone had a wonderful weekend. Your Climate 202 host saw a gorgeous rainbow on Saturday during a brief respite from climate coverage. Here's some news you may have missed:

Saudi Arabia commits to net-zero emissions by 2060

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, pledged on Saturday to reach net-zero emissions by 2060, joining other countries in rolling out new commitments ahead of a crucial U.N. climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, next month.

But the announcement raised key questions about how countries can simultaneously commit to reducing domestic emissions while continuing to export fossil fuels overseas under the rules of the Paris agreement.

The details: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman unveiled the new goal at the kingdom's first Saudi Green Initiative Forum, The Washington Post's Sarah Dadouch reports.

  • “Previously, the powerful Saudi energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, had ridiculed the International Energy Agency's 2050 target for reaching net-zero emissions, calling it 'a sequel to [the] La La Land' movie,” Dadouch writes.
  • The crown prince vowed to plant 450 million trees by 2030 and to continue relying on a “carbon circular economy” — a reference to capturing the carbon dioxide released by burning fossil fuels before it enters the atmosphere.
  • Saudi Arabia also joined the Global Methane Pledge, an agreement to cut methane emissions by 30 percent by 2030.

The state-owned oil company Saudi Aramco followed up with its own commitment to reach net-zero emissions in its operations by 2050, the Financial Times reported. But the pledge didn't cover Scope 3 emissions, or the emissions generated by customers and suppliers, which account for the vast majority of the oil company's climate pollution.

Fossil fuel exports are still on the table

While Saudi Arabia vowed to slash greenhouse gas emissions at home, the country made clear that it still plans to export enormous quantities of oil and gas to other countries.

That reflects a quirk in the rules of the 2015 Paris agreement, in which nations agreed to limit global temperature rise to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) — and “preferably” 1.5 degrees Celsius — compared with preindustrial levels.

In particular, the United Nations doesn't count overseas emissions toward countries' commitments under the Paris accord, known as nationally determined contributions or NDCs.

The way we measure emissions is inconsistent, Karen Young, director of the Program on Economics and Energy at the Middle East Institute, a nonpartisan think tank, said in a phone interview with The Climate 202 on Sunday.

Saudi Arabia is “going to get every last molecule of oil out of the ground. That's the plan,” Young said. “What you do with it after it goes on that container ship, that's somebody else's problem.

Biden and exports

While President Biden has promised a whole-of-government approach to eliminating domestic emissions by 2050, the United States has similarly continued to send fossil fuels abroad.

  • In September, U.S. liquefied natural gas exports averaged 9.3 billion cubic feet per day, according to the Energy Information Administration's October short-term energy outlook.
  • The United States is set to become the world's top exporter of liquefied natural gas by 2023, according to a recent report by Global Witness, a human rights organization.
  • Biden has also called on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to increase oil production to help ease an energy price spike in recent months.

The New Republic's Kate Aronoff:

What's next at COP26

Ultimately, finalizing the rules of the Paris accord will be a top priority for negotiators at the U.N. climate summit in Glasgow, known as COP26, starting Oct. 31. 

  • At COP24 in Katowice, Poland, in 2018, countries were largely successful in hammering out a Paris “rulebook.” But they punted some of the thorniest issues to the next round of talks.
  • At COP25 in Madrid in 2019, negotiators were unable to agree on the rules for implementing voluntary carbon markets and the time frame for submitting updated climate commitments, again punting those issues.

For a complete summary of the unresolved issues on the table at COP26, check out this helpful explainer from The Post's Brady Dennis and this handy guide from the World Resources Institute. And be sure to keep reading The Climate 202, which will be reported from on the ground in Glasgow for the full two weeks that the summit is scheduled to last.

On the Hill

Pelosi says Democrats will reach a deal on climate soon

Democrats are close to securing a deal on climate provisions in their massive tax-and-spending package, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said during CNN's “State of the Union” on Sunday.

Lawmakers are crafting a replacement to the Clean Electricity Performance Program (CEPP) that will appeal to centrist Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.), who tanked the original proposal to reduce emissions from power plants, Pelosi said.

“It will not offend, shall we say, the concern that Senator Manchin had about the CEPP,” she said. “But, nonetheless, the point is to reach a goal and the president's goals of reaching the emissions, the pollution and all the rest.”

Asked whether a deal will be reached before Biden leaves for Europe later this week to attend the G-20 summit in Rome, Pelosi added, “I think we're pretty much there now.”

Pelosi's upbeat comments came as Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.), the main architect of the CEPP, tweeted Sunday: “I’m working for the strongest possible climate provisions, and my support needs to be earned.”

Meanwhile, Biden met with Manchin and Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) on Sunday in Delaware in the hopes of clinching a deal in the next week, Politico reported.

European lawmakers, diplomats monitor climate negotiations in Congress

Some European lawmakers and diplomats are warning that American rhetoric on climate change needs to be backed up by deeds — including robust climate legislation — ahead of COP26.

  • “President Biden has been given a lot of credit from international partners, particularly European ones, for his clear language and his bold promises on U.S. climate policy. But the fight against climate change does not live on words alone,” Reinhard Bütikofer, a senior German lawmaker in the European Parliament who is a member of his country's Green party, told The Post's Michael Birnbaum in comments first reported in The Climate 202.
  • “If Biden cannot deliver on the hopes he raised, his credibility will wear thin fast,” Bütikofer said. “Executive action cannot fill all the gaps that Congress leaves open by refusing to legislate adequately.”

A senior European diplomat involved in climate negotiations told Birnbaum that a failure in Washington to clinch a climate deal before COP26 could sap U.S. credibility on the world stage.

“The credibility you have abroad is based on the commitments you have at home,” said the diplomat, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to offer a candid assessment of the situation in Washington.

“Ultimately, what [U.S. special presidential envoy for climate John F.] Kerry would need, what Biden would need, is to be able to tell others they need to up their game, rightfully so, and that we’re doing the same,” the diplomat said.

Countdown to COP26

How countries are positioning themselves ahead of COP26

China released some details on its plans to reach carbon neutrality by 2060, including a goal of getting more than 80 percent of its energy from non-fossil fuels by that year, Bloomberg News reported. But the guidelines, published in the Chinese state media, leave the country's 2025 and 2030 climate targets unchanged.

Bloomberg News also reported this weekend that Brazil may be willing to compromise over the contentious rules surrounding a carbon-offset market run by the United Nations. The South American country has sparred with European nations over the use of older carbon offsets and rules aimed at preventing double-counting of carbon credits. 

The power grid

Extreme weather is threatening America’s power grid

As climate change drives extreme weather events, America’s aging electrical systems are failing to keep up, resulting in blackouts that can have deadly consequences for those left without power during extreme heat or severe winter storms, The Post’s Douglas MacMillan and Will Englund report.

Environmental groups want major changes to the grid, and utilities have proposed storm-proofing measures such as burying power lines. But state regulators are often quick to dismiss these suggestions out of concern that they would drive up prices.

Positive environmental news

Monarch butterflies are back at a sanctuary

A team of researchers from the Pacific Grove Museum of Natural History counted more than 2,500 monarch butterflies in a single day at their sanctuary, The Post's Paulina Firozi reports. Last year, there were no monarch clusters at the Northern California sanctuary. 

The species has suffered large population declines due to climate change and habitat loss, so scientists welcomed the more robust count this year. They were quick to caution, however, that a single year's uptick does not necessarily spell a long-term rebound.

Viral

The Post's deputy weather editor Kasha Patel explains why leaf-peeping season keeps getting later.

Deputy weather editor Kasha Patel explains how climate change is delaying fall foliage in some parts of the U.S. (Casey Silvestri/The Washington Post)

Thanks for reading!