From Texas to Oregon, competitive congressional districts are disappearing. As states finalize new borders ahead of the 2022 midterms, state legislatures are approving maps they hope will advantage one party in the coming struggle to control the narrowly held U.S. House.
Competitive House districts are getting wiped off the map
How new and current congressional districts voted for president
Biden
won by...
Trump
won by...
Districts
within
5 pts.
15+
5-15
5-15
15+
New
districts
approved
so far
25
10
10
16
59
Current
districts
in those
states
24
5
23
19
45
How new and current congressional districts voted for president
Biden
won by...
Trump
won by...
Districts
within
5 pts.
15+
5-15
5-15
15+
25
10
10
16
59
New districts
approved so far
24
5
23
19
45
Current districts
in those states
How new and current congressional districts voted for president
Districts Biden won by...
Districts Trump won by...
Districts
within 5
points
15 or more
points
5 to 15
points
5 to 15
points
15 or more
points
25
10
10
16
59
New districts
approved so far
24
5
23
19
45
Current districts
in those states
How new and current congressional districts voted for president
Districts
within 5
points
Districts Biden won by...
Districts Trump won by...
15 or more
points
5 to 15
points
5 to 15
points
15 or more
points
25
10
10
16
59
New districts
approved so far
24
5
23
19
45
Current districts
in those states
Other states are considering maps that have attracted accusations of extreme partisan gerrymandering. A Democrat-drawn plan awaiting the Illinois governor’s signature eliminates two competitive districts in favor of two Democratic-leaning seats. Georgia’s Republican-controlled legislature has proposed adding another GOP-leaning seat in what appears to be an attempt to stifle Democratic gains in the Atlanta suburbs.
The maps could face years of legal challenges once they are approved by state legislatures or other commissions charged with drawing the lines. The net effect of the changes in motion is that the next session of Congress will have an even more partisan makeup, and likely more rancor, than the already polarized House today.
Current districts
New districts
Current districts
New districts
Texas
The new map in Texas would reduce the state’s 12 existing competitive districts to one. The elimination of competitive seats will likely limit Democrats’ chances to flip seats as the state’s population changes over the next decade.
Biden
won by...
Trump
won by...
Districts
within
5 pts.
15+
5-15
5-15
15+
New
districts
approved
in Texas
12
1
1
3
21
Current
districts
in Texas
8
2
12
3
11
Biden
won by...
Trump
won by...
Districts
within
5 pts.
15+
5-15
5-15
15+
New districts
approved
in Texas
12
1
1
3
21
Current districts
in Texas
8
2
12
3
11
Districts Biden won by...
Districts Trump won by...
Districts
within 5
points
15 or more
points
5 to 15
points
5 to 15
points
15 or more
points
12
1
1
3
21
New districts
approved
in Texas
Only one district, in
southern Texas, remains
highly competitive.
8
2
12
3
11
Current districts
in Texas
Districts
within 5
points
Districts Biden won by...
Districts Trump won by...
15 or more
points
5 to 15
points
5 to 15
points
15 or more
points
12
1
1
3
21
New districts
approved
in Texas
Only one district, in
southern Texas, remains
highly competitive.
8
2
12
3
11
Current districts
in Texas
Currently, Republicans hold a 23-to-13 advantage over Democrats in the House delegation. The new lines, which include two additional seats because of population growth, nearly double the safest Republican seats from 11 to 21 and increase the safest Democratic seats from eight to 12. One seat leans Democratic and three lean Republican, according to the analysis.
Current districts
New districts
Current districts
New districts
Ohio
Gov. Mike DeWine (R) signed the state legislature’s congressional redistricting plan Saturday. The state lost a House seat because of population changes in the past decade.
Biden
won by...
Trump
won by...
Districts
within
5 pts.
15+
5-15
5-15
15+
New
districts
approved
in Ohio
2
0
4
2
7
Current
districts
in Ohio
3
0
3
5
5
Biden
won by...
Trump
won by...
Districts
within
5 pts.
15+
5-15
5-15
15+
New districts
approved
in Ohio
2
0
4
2
7
Current districts
in Ohio
3
0
3
5
5
Districts Biden won by...
Districts Trump won by...
Districts
within 5
points
15 or more
points
5 to 15
points
5 to 15
points
15 or more
points
2
0
4
2
7
New districts
approved
in Ohio
3
0
3
5
5
Current districts
in Ohio
Districts
within 5
points
Districts Biden won by...
Districts Trump won by...
15 or more
points
5 to 15
points
5 to 15
points
15 or more
points
2
0
4
2
7
New districts
approved
in Ohio
3
0
3
5
5
Current districts
in Ohio
The congressional map in Ohio is already favorable to Republicans — Joe Biden received 45 percent of the vote in 2020, but Democrats currently make up just one-fourth of the state’s congressional delegation — and the new map could intensify that difference. Republicans are expected to have seven solid seats, up from five.
The new map slightly increases the number of seats with close presidential margins, in part maintaining close districts currently held by Republicans, and eliminates a solid Democratic seat along Lake Erie.
Current districts
New districts
Current districts
New districts
Oregon
Though Democrats will draw fewer districts than Republicans nationwide, they are countering with their own favorable maps in states like Oregon, which will gain a new seat from reapportionment. The National Republican Congressional Committee had planned to target the state’s single competitive district and new district as possible Republican gains. But the Democratic-controlled legislature passed a map that sets both those seats up to be safely Democratic seats.
Biden
won by...
Trump
won by...
Districts
within
5 pts.
15+
5-15
5-15
15+
New
districts
approved
in Oregon
2
3
0
0
1
Current
districts
in Oregon
2
1
1
1
0
Biden
won by...
Trump
won by...
Districts
within
5 pts.
15+
5-15
5-15
15+
New districts
approved
in Oregon
2
3
0
0
1
Current districts
in Oregon
2
1
1
1
0
Districts Biden won by...
Districts Trump won by...
Districts
within 5
points
15 or more
points
5 to 15
points
5 to 15
points
15 or more
points
2
3
0
0
1
New districts
approved
in Oregon
2
1
1
1
0
Current districts
in Oregon
Districts
within 5
points
Districts Biden won by...
Districts Trump won by...
15 or more
points
5 to 15
points
5 to 15
points
15 or more
points
2
3
0
0
1
New districts
approved
in Oregon
2
1
1
1
0
Current districts
in Oregon
Republican votes have been packed into the state’s single right-leaning eastern district, making the seat even more solidly Republican, while Democratic votes around Portland have been split, lending the party an advantage in four separate districts.
Current districts
New districts
Current districts
New districts
North Carolina
Growth in Democratic-leaning cities and suburbs gave North Carolina a new seat from reapportionment as well, but the maps passed by the Republican-controlled state legislature add new solidly Republican district.
Biden
won by...
Trump
won by...
Districts
within
5 pts.
15+
5-15
5-15
15+
New
districts
approved
in N.C.
3
0
1
5
5
Rep. G.K.
Butterfield’s
district
Current
districts
3
0
1
4
5
Biden
won by...
Trump
won by...
Districts
within
5 pts.
15+
5-15
5-15
15+
New districts
approved in
North Carolina
3
0
1
5
5
Rep. G.K.
Butterfield’s
district
Current
districts
3
0
1
4
5
Districts Biden won by...
Districts Trump won by...
Districts
within 5
points
15 or more
points
5 to 15
points
5 to 15
points
15 or more
points
3
0
1
5
5
Rep. G.K.
Butterfield’s
district
New districts
approved in
North Carolina
3
0
1
4
5
Current districts
Districts
within 5
points
Districts Biden won by...
Districts Trump won by...
15 or more
points
5 to 15
points
5 to 15
points
15 or more
points
3
0
1
5
5
Rep. G.K.
Butterfield’s
district
New districts
approved in
North Carolina
3
0
1
4
5
Current districts
in North Carolina
North Carolina’s 1st District, a majority minority and solidly Democratic area in the northeast corner of the state, was redrawn into a much more competitive district. Rep. G.K. Butterfield, who has represented the district since 2004, announced his retirement on Friday, citing the new map he said is “racially gerrymandered.”
“It will disadvantage African American communities all across the 1st Congressional District,” Butterfield said in a video statement. “I am disappointed, terribly disappointed with the Republican majority legislature for again gerrymandering our state’s congressional districts and putting their party politics over the best interests of North Carolinians."
A panel of federal judges ordered the state to redraw its gerrymandered maps in 2018.
Source: Post analysis of state redistricting plans using Decision Desk HQ precinct-level results and estimates.