Regardless of which jurist President Biden picks to fill the Supreme Court seat Justice Stephen G. Breyer plans to vacate this summer, the court will retain its six-seat conservative majority. But the decision, one of the most consequential a president can make, offers Biden an opportunity to give someone of his ideological choosing a lifetime appointment on the nation’s highest court.
Breyer’s center-left path on the Supreme Court, in two charts
More liberal
More conservative
Breyer
−4
−2
0
2
4
Martin-Quinn scores
Source: Data from Andrew D. Martin, Washington
University in St. Louis and Kevin Quinn, University
of Michigan
More liberal
More conservative
Barrett
Roberts
Alito
Kagan
Sotomayor
Thomas
Gorsuch
Breyer
Kavanaugh
−4
−2
0
2
4
Martin-Quinn scores
Source: Data from Andrew D. Martin, Washington University
in St. Louis and Kevin Quinn, University of Michigan
More liberal
More conservative
Barrett
Kagan
Sotomayor
Roberts
Thomas
Alito
Gorsuch
Breyer
Kavanaugh
−4
−2
0
2
4
Martin-Quinn scores
Source: Data from Andrew D. Martin, Washington University in St. Louis and Kevin Quinn, University of Michigan
Breyer has followed a center-left ideology during nearly three decades on the court, according to a measure of voting records called Martin-Quinn scores. The scores place Supreme Court justices on a left-right scale based on how often they vote with each other.
Breyer maintained center-left ideology during his tenure
The median Supreme Court justice is more conservative now than in recent years, according to a measure of justice voting records called Martin-Quinn scores.
More liberal
More conservative
Breyer
’95
Median
justice
’00
O’Connor
Rehnquist
’05
Souter
Stevens
’10
Scalia
Kennedy
’15
Kavanaugh
Ginsburg
Gorsuch
’20
Sotomayor
Kagan
Roberts
Barrett
Alito
Thomas
Breyer
−4
−2
0
2
4
Source: Data from Andrew D. Martin,
Washington University in St. Louis
and Kevin Quinn, University of Michigan
Breyer maintained center-left ideology during his tenure
The median Supreme Court justice is more conservative now than in recent years, according to a measure of justice voting records called Martin-Quinn scores.
More liberal
More conservative
Breyer
1995
Median
justice
2000
Rehnquist
O’Connor
2005
Souter
Stevens
2010
Scalia
2015
Kennedy
Ginsburg
Gorsuch
Roberts
2020
Breyer
Sotomayor
Kagan
Kavanaugh
Barrett
Alito
Thomas
−4
−2
0
2
4
Source: Data from Andrew D. Martin, Washington University in St. Louis and Kevin Quinn, University of Michigan
Breyer maintained center-left ideology during his tenure
The median Supreme Court justice is more conservative now than in recent years, according to a measure of justice voting records called Martin-Quinn scores.
More liberal
More conservative
Breyer
1995
Median
justice
2000
Rehnquist
O’Connor
2005
Souter
Stevens
2010
Scalia
2015
Kennedy
Ginsburg
Gorsuch
Roberts
2020
Breyer
Sotomayor
Thomas
Kagan
Kavanaugh
Alito
Barrett
−4
−2
0
2
4
Source: Data from Andrew D. Martin, Washington University in St. Louis and Kevin Quinn, University of Michigan
Breyer was a consistent liberal vote on issues like abortion rights, the environment and health-care coverage. He drifted slightly left during his tenure, according to the measure. The court’s conservative majority, recently bolstered by three Trump appointments, has been a constant during Breyer’s time on the bench.
Breyer “is a pragmatist who believes deeply that our Constitution and our government should work for the American people, and those beliefs in turn have shaped the way he thinks about the role of the courts in our system of government,” Brianne Gorod, a former law clerk to Breyer and now chief counsel at the Constitutional Accountability Center, said in a statement Wednesday.
Republicans, who jammed through a third conservative Trump justice just eight days before the 2020 election, over the objections of Democrats and the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, are demanding that Biden nominate a centrist to replace Breyer. They appear powerless to block Biden’s pick in a Senate split 50-50 between Republicans and Democrats, with Vice President Harris as the tiebreaking vote.
Biden has set a historic benchmark for his eventual pick, promising during his campaign and recommitting Thursday to nominate the first Black woman to the bench. Where the next Supreme Court justice will fall ideologically is less apparent. He said he will nominate a candidate by the end of February.