Dozens of House members have announced they will not seek re-election and are retiring from Congress, with some having served for decades and ascended to powerful committee perches.
So far, 30 Democrats have announced their retirements compared with 17 Republicans. This has led GOP officials to charge that Democrats are heading for the exits because they are afraid of tough re-election fights this fall or because they believe Republicans will gain control of the House next year, relegating Democrats to the minority.
Regardless of the reason, the retirements mean there will be a large group of new House members walking the halls of Congress next year.
Total departures expected to produce an open seat in the November election, by month.
Historically, the number of retirements within a party has served as a good indication of how the midterm elections will go. For instance, ahead of the 2018 midterms, when the electoral terrain was favorable to Democrats, 41 Republicans announced their retirement or their seats were open for other reasons compared with 22 Democrats. Republicans suffered a loss of 40 seats in that election.
But it’s not always a perfect barometer of what will happen during the midterms. Ahead of the 2010 midterms during the Obama administration, 20 Democrats announced their retirements or their seats were open for other reasons compared with 23 Republicans. Democrats suffered a net loss of 63 seats in that election.
Data compiled by Daily Kos Elections. This page includes retiring members of the U.S. House who will be replaced in the 2022 general election. On the historical chart, totals include any seat expected to be left open for the election, for retirement or other reasons. Retirement announcements that came before the start of the congressional term are included in the first month’s count.