Welcome to The Daily 202! Tell your friends to sign up here. On this day in 2004, Army Ranger Pat Tillman, who turned down millions of dollars to stay in the NFL and enlist in the military, was killed by friendly fire in the mountains of Afghanistan. He was 27.
The big idea
What the outcome of the French election means for Ukraine
Ukraine isn’t the defining issue of this weekend’s elections in France. But an upset presidential victory by Marine Le Pen, the right-wing candidate with strong sympathies for Russia, would deal a punishing blow to international efforts to help Kyiv drive out Moscow’s forces.
Come Sunday, French voters will pick between Le Pen, the far-right’s perennial champion, and the incumbent, centrist Emmanuel Macron, in a second, decisive round of elections. Macron won the first round and leads in the latest polls. But victory is not out of Le Pen’s grasp.
And that would completely transform the way the United States and its allies respond to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, putting a historically pro-Moscow leader and critic of NATO at the helm of the European Union’s second-largest economy.
- “If she prevails,” Germany’s Der Spiegel recently warned, “France would become another country and Europe a different continent.”
Le Pen has had historically warm relations with Putin, defended his 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea region, wants a “strategic rapprochement” between NATO and Moscow, has called for France to leave the alliance’s integrated military command, bluntly criticized economic sanctions against Russia, and has sharply warned against further arms packages for Ukraine.
“She represents a danger that goes even beyond that of a Trojan Horse, because she doesn’t hide that she would support Vladimir Putin’s policy positions,” Tara Varma, who heads the Paris office of the European Council on Foreign Relations, told The Daily 202.
‘A Moscow-Budapest-Paris axis’
Le Pen no longer explicitly calls for France to leave the European Union and quit its euro currency — parts of her presidential platform when she lost to Macron in a 2017 landslide. But the changes she wants to make to the bloc in the name of French sovereignty would gut its unity and effectiveness, E.U. supporters say.
“Her victory would clearly undermine the EU’s consensus on sanctions towards Russia,” Olivier Schmitt, director of research and studies at the French Institute of Higher National Defense Studies (IHEDN), told The Daily 202. “This would create a Moscow-Budapest-Paris axis, which would work towards supporting Moscow in words and deeds.”
Varma said that, in addition to cementing that pro-Putin bloc inside the European Union, France led by Le Pen would play a “spoiler” role and help create a “breach” in what has been transatlantic cooperation on imposing sanctions on Russia.
Where Macron has lined up in favor of sanctions, helping to corral American allies heavily reliant on Russian purchases of their products or Moscow’s oil and natural gas exports, a French break with sanctions under Le Pen could lead other countries to do the same, wrecking the fragile consensus that exists today, Varma said.
Le Pen’s party has received at least two loans from financial institutions close to Russia. Ahead of the 2017 French presidential election, it received a 9.4 million-euro loan, then worth $12.2 million, from a Russian bank. The transaction was widely seen as part of Putin’s efforts to expand his influence over right-wing populist parties in Western Europe.
Macron made the most of those financial ties when he faced off against her Wednesday night in their only debate of the campaign, a frequently rancorous televised back-and-forth that ran three hours.
- “You’re speaking to your banker when you speak about Russia, that’s the problem,” Macron charged, Agence France-Presse reported. “You’re dependent on Russia’s government and dependent on Mr. Putin.”
Le Pen fired back, accusing Macron of a “dishonest” attack and insisting she was “absolutely, totally free” and that she had only sought capital overseas because no French bank would lend her party money.
And she declared she seeks a “free Ukraine” that is not dominated by the United States, Europe or Russia and expressed her “absolute solidarity and compassion” for Ukrainians, Agence France-Presse reported.
“Marine Le Pen has been very cautious since February 24,” Schmitt said. “She has condemned the Russian invasion, while also calling for the reestablishment of relations with Russia as soon as possible, but she largely maintained a low profile on this issue, campaigning instead on the electoral issue of standards of living.”
A nervous White House
Le Pen has hammered Macron as out of touch with the economic concerns of the French people — a line of attack made easier by the incumbent’s habit of archly dismissing their worries, including in awkward face-to-face encounters on the stump.
She has also blamed the sanctions for helping to create Europe’s worst energy crisis in decades, which has sent gas prices surging.
At the White House, officials are closely (and nervously) monitoring the outcome, but there’s no official position on who should win.
“We are certainly watching the elections,” press secretary Jen Psaki said earlier this month. “But I don't have any prediction of what the outcome will be. And once there is an outcome, I'm sure we will speak to it.”
What’s happening now
Trump, McCarthy talk after audio shows lawmaker was ready to advise Trump to resign
“Former president Donald Trump and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) spoke on the phone Thursday night about a newly released audio of McCarthy telling Republican leaders that Trump should resign in the wake of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol,” The Post reports.
Flashback: “The audio contradicted McCarthy’s claim that he didn’t push for Trump to resign after the deadly insurrection by a pro-Trump mob.”
What they’re saying: According to two people familiar with the conversation, Trump was not upset about McCarthy’s remarks and was “glad the Republican leader didn’t follow through,” which he said signals a sign of his continued grip on the party.
Mark Meadows was simultaneously registered to vote in three states
“After Donald Trump lost the presidential election, falsely claiming election fraud, [former White House chief of staff] Mark Meadows became senior partner at the Conservative Partnership Institute, which promotes “election integrity” efforts … Now it turns out that until last week, Meadows was simultaneously registered to vote in three different states — North Carolina, Virginia and South Carolina,” Fact Checker Glenn Kessler reports.
The fallout: The overlap lasted about three weeks, before North Carolina officials announced last month that Meadows was under investigation for potential voting fraud before revoking his voter registration on April 11. Meadows is still registered in Virginia and South Carolina.
Disney World’s Reedy Creek: What happens after the special district is abolished?
“Dissolving Walt Disney World’s Reedy Creek Improvement District could saddle local taxpayers with about $1 billion in debt and leave local governments scrambling with how to take over vital services for Florida’s top tourist attraction,” the Orlando Sentinel’s Skyler Swisher and Ryan Gillespie report.
Catch up quick: “State legislators passed a bill Thursday that dissolves the district The Walt Disney Co. uses to self-govern its Florida theme park properties on June 1, 2023 … The Legislature did not conduct an economic study on the ramifications of dissolving the district.”
China stocks post worst week in six, yuan slides, as Shanghai extends lockdown
“Chinese shares posted their biggest weekly drop in six weeks on Friday and the yuan extended losses as strict COVID-19 lockdowns paralysed economic activity in many big cities, even as authorities vowed to provide more help to hard-hit firms,” Reuters reports.
Possible mass graves near Mariupol shown in satellite images
“New satellite images show apparent mass graves near Mariupol, where local officials accused Russia of burying up to 9,000 Ukrainian civilians to conceal the slaughter taking place in the ruined port city that’s almost entirely under Russian control,” the Associated Press’s Yesica Fisch reports.
- “On Thursday, the Russian leader claimed victory in the battle for Mariupol, even though an estimated 2,000 Ukrainian remain holed up at a giant steel mill in the strategic city.”
Meanwhile, in Bucha … New York-based Human Rights Watch said it had documented “multiple apparent war crimes” while occupying the Ukrainian town Bucha in March,” Maite Fernandez Simon reports.
More key updates:
Lunchtime reads from The Post
“For more than a year, a little-known group called the Health Freedom Defense Fund has been working to roll back vaccine and mask mandates all over the country, often filing lawsuits one community at a time,” Yasmeen Abutaleb, Hannah Sampson and Ann E. Marimow write.
“The group … saw mixed results, with some local officials bending under the pressure and others winning efforts to dismiss lawsuits they viewed as coming from a fringe organization. Until this week.”
“The decision Monday by a federal judge in Florida to invalidate the government-imposed mask mandate on public transportation handed the group a major legal victory, instantly upending national policy and setting off a cascade of reactions that reflected the impact on millions of Americans.”
… and beyond
Legislative setbacks plague Biden’s climate goals
“A year after President Biden announced the goal of significantly cutting planet-warming emissions by the end of the decade, experts are warning the nation is not on track to meet them,” The Hill's Rachel Frazin reports.
“The biggest hurdle, they say, is Congress’s failure to pass Biden’s climate and social spending agenda, as the provisions approved in the House version of the bill would likely have put the country on target.”
A Look Inside the Textbooks That Florida Rejected
“After the Florida Department of Education rejected dozens of math textbooks last week, the big question was, Why?” The NYT's Dana Goldstein and Stephanie Saul report.
“The department said some of the books ‘contained prohibited topics’ from social-emotional learning or critical race theory — but it has released only four specific textbook pages showing content to which it objects Using online sample materials provided by publishers to Florida school districts, The New York Times was able to review 21 of the rejected books and see what may have led the state to reject them.”
The latest on covid
Philadelphia to end mask mandate, days after reinstating it
“Philadelphia is ending its indoor mask mandate, city health officials said Thursday night, abruptly reversing course just days after people in the city had to start wearing masks again amid a sharp increase in infections,” the Associated Press’s Michael Rubinkam reports.
Key context: “Philadelphia had become the first major U.S. city to reinstate its indoor mask mandate, but faced fierce blowback as well as a legal effort to get the mandate thrown out.”
The Biden agenda
Biden wants more Ukraine aid. Congress won’t make it easy.
“President Joe Biden already saw one major priority sidelined by a heated immigration dispute. Now, it looks like his urgent request for Ukraine aid could get caught up in the same fight, despite bipartisan support,” Politico’s Andrew Desiderio reports.
“Biden announced an additional $800 million in military aid for Ukraine on Thursday, and in doing so revealed that he has ‘almost exhausted’ a key fund that Congress created as part of the last Ukraine package. He said he would be asking Congress for additional funding next week ‘in order to sustain Ukraine for the duration of this fight’ and ‘keep weapons and ammunition flowing without interruption.’”
Biden predicts Democrats could bolster Senate majority in midterms
“President Joe Biden on Thursday predicted that his fellow Democrats could win two more U.S. Senate seats in November’s midterms, strengthening the party's majority to pass his agenda despite sagging approval ratings,” Reuters Jeff Mason and Nandita Bose report.
- “I’m determined to make sure we keep the House and the Senate,” Biden told donors at a political fundraiser in Portland.
- Key context: “High inflation and the ongoing pandemic have contributed to low poll numbers for Biden and sparked concerns that Democrats may lose control of the House of Representatives and the Senate to Republicans after the November election.”
Harris selects new chief of staff as top aide departs White House
“Tina Flournoy, chief of staff to Vice President Harris, is preparing to depart the White House, capping a long list of aides who have left Harris’s office in recent months, and is set to be replaced by Lorraine Voles, a veteran Democratic operative and communications expert,” Tyler Pager scooped.
- “Voles, who has served as a senior adviser to Harris since last summer, will assume the top role later this spring, a White House official said. She served as communications director to Vice President Al Gore and worked as an adviser to Hillary Clinton in 2008.”
Visualized
Florida’s new congressional map, visualized
“The Florida House gave final passage to a new congressional map blessed by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) that gives Republicans the chance to capture as many as four new seats and erases a seat held by a Black Democrat following a dramatic sit-in by state Democrats, many of them Black.”
Hot on the left
Biden White House stands behind Title 42 decision amid party revolt
“Facing a growing rebellion from within the Democratic Party, the White House is standing behind its decision to end on May 23 a Trump-era deportation policy for migrants encountered at the southern border,” Politico reports.
- Catch up quick: Under the banner of fighting the covid pandemic, the policy justified the immediate expulsion of migrants without due process.
A balancing act: “The president is attempting to balance his long-standing promise to revoke the policy … right as Republicans weaponize immigration before the midterms and as a growing number of Democratic senators want restrictions to remain in place for fear that the administration is not prepared for a summer surge of migrants to the border.”
Today in Washington
Biden will deliver Earth Day remarks at Seward Park in Seattle at 1:30 p.m.
He will then deliver remarks on lowering health care and energy costs at Green River College in Auburn, Wash., at 3:30 p.m.
The president will depart Auburn for New Castle, Del., where he is scheduled to arrive at 10:40 p.m.
In closing
Thanks for reading. See you next week.