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The Daily 202

A lunchtime newsletter featuring political analysis on the stories driving the day.

Jobs. Education. New abortion limits may come with a price.

The Daily 202

A lunchtime newsletter featuring political analysis on the stories driving the day.

Welcome to The Daily 202! Tell your friends to sign up here. On this day in 1974, President Richard M. Nixon, beset by cascading revelations in the Watergate scandal, announced he would resign the following day.

The big idea

Jobs. Education. New abortion limits may come with a price.

It’s not just the millions who may become pregnant who have to contend with new limits on access to abortion. It’s also the corporations looking to hire, the medical schools trying to recruit, the communities working to enlist doctors — including obstetricians and gynecologists.

That’s one of the early lessons of the Supreme Court’s June ruling overturning Roe v. Wade, which had preserved access to abortion for a half-century. It’s too soon to draw sweeping and authoritative conclusions, but the decision has led to questions with few easy answers.

Setting aside for a moment the dramatic effects on health, will states with new bans have trouble attracting corporations, workers, doctors, college students? What effects will the restrictions have on rules about, say, child support? Or how about workplace liability?

My colleagues Amber Phillips and Tom Hamburger looked at the aftershocks in Indiana, which on Friday became the first state to adopt a ban since the Dobbs decision in June.

“Indiana’s new sweeping ban on abortion produced immediate political and economic fallout Saturday, as some of the state’s biggest employers objected to the restrictions, Democratic leaders strategized ways to amend or repeal the law, and abortion rights activists made plans to arrange alternative locations for women seeking procedures.”

“After the legislation was signed into law, Eli Lilly, the pharmaceutical giant and one of the state’s largest employers, warned that such laws would hurt its employee recruiting efforts and said the company would look elsewhere for its expansion plans.”

“‘We are concerned that this law will hinder Lilly’s — and Indiana’s — ability to attract diverse scientific engineering and business talent from around the world,’ the company said in a statement issued Saturday. ‘Given this new law, we will be forced to plan for more employment growth outside our home state.’

“Salesforce, the tech giant with 2,300 employees in Indiana, had previously offered to relocate employees in states with abortion restrictions, though it didn’t respond on Saturday to a request for comment on the Indiana law.”

“The Indianapolis Chamber of Commerce also warned the ban was passed too quickly and without regard for how it will affect the state’s tourism industry.”

Doctors and medical students given pause

Also on Saturday, my colleague Christopher Rowland documented “hesitancy among some doctors and medical students who are reconsidering career prospects in red states where laws governing abortion have changed rapidly since the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade.”

Chris chronicled:

  • “One large medical recruiting firm said it recently had 20 obstetrician-gynecologists turn down positions in red states because of abortion laws. The reluctance extends beyond those interested in providing abortion care, as laws meant to protect a fetus could open doctors up to new liabilities or limit their ability to practice.”
  • “One large health-care staffing firm, AMN Healthcare, said clients in states with abortion bans are having greater trouble filling vacancies because some prospective OB/GYN candidates won’t even consider opportunities in states with new or pending abortion bans.”
  • Physicians who support abortion rights “worry that limits on training for new doctors will undermine recruitment of young talent. They are concerned about restrictions on fertility treatment. They anticipate that conservative legislatures will seek to impose bans on certain types of contraception, including IUDs and Plan B medication. Most Republicans in the U.S. House voted last month against a measure protecting the right to contraception.”

It’s too early to gauge the scale or duration of the shift, Christopher noted. “But amid a national shortage of reproductive health practitioners, the early evidence indicates that red states have, at minimum, put themselves at a disadvantage in the competition for crucial front-line providers, experts said.”

More fallout

Dobbs is being felt in other ways.

Last week, for instance, Georgia confirmed that the provision in its abortion law that “ … any unborn child with a detectable human heartbeat … shall qualify as a dependent minor” meant expectant parents could claim a $3,000 state income tax exemption.

As for the political considerations, my colleague Paul Kane reported that Democrats might get a boost in the November midterm elections from the Dobbs decision as well as widespread frustration over gun violence. My colleague Philip Bump expressed his skepticism here.

And then there’s Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), who recently predicted that not only would the shifts be large and lasting but that they would benefit social conservatives.

“More and more red states are going to become more red, purple states are going to become red and the blue states are going to get a lot bluer,” Hawley said. “I would look for Republicans as a result of this to extend their strength in the Electoral College. And that’s very good news.”

But the red/blue politics are complicated. Consider the recent vote in very-red Kansas.

What’s happening now

House poised to pass Inflation Reduction Act later this week

“The House is scheduled to return to Washington on Friday to pass the Inflation Reduction Act, the sweeping package to combat climate change, lower health-care costs, raise taxes on some billion-dollar corporations and reduce the federal deficit that passed in the Senate on Sunday with a tiebreaking vote from Vice President Harris,” John Wagner and Mariana Alfaro report.

Biden says he is concerned, but not worried, about China’s military drills

“President Biden said Monday that he is concerned, but not worried, about China’s extension of military exercises in the seas and airspace around Taiwan that began after last week’s visit by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.),” John Wagner and Mariana Alfaro report.

“I’m not worried, but I’m concerned that they’re moving as much as they are,” Biden said. “But I don’t think they’re going to do anything more than they are.”

Top Pakistani Taliban leader killed in Afghanistan; Shiites targeted in Kabul

“A top leader of the Pakistani Taliban militia was reported killed Sunday in southeastern Afghanistan, potentially dealing a serious blow to peace talks being negotiated between the extremist group and Pakistani officials with assistance from senior Taliban leaders in Afghanistan,” Pamela Constable reports.

Lunchtime reads from The Post

After passage of climate bill, long road awaits

An entire supply chain of rare minerals, semiconductors, batteries and financing all have to fall into place before Americans give up their combustion engines. American consumers can only claim the full $7,500 credit for an all-electric engine if their manufacturers displace Chinese batteries by 2024 and minerals from China or other countries lacking free-trade agreements by 2025 — a threshold that automakers are warning could be impossible to meet. And China, furious right now over House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to Taiwan, is expected to watch as the United States openly strives to liberate itself from manufacturing in the People’s Republic,” Steven Mufson reports.

GOP nominee for Michigan AG named in election security breach probe

“Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel (D) is seeking the appointment of a special prosecutor to investigate the Republican nominee for her job after a state police investigation found evidence that he helped orchestrate an effort last year to gain unauthorized access to voting equipment in an effort to prove there was fraud in the 2020 presidential election,” Rosalind S. Helderman, Emma Brown and Tom Hamburger report.

“In a petition filed Friday with a Michigan agency that coordinates prosecutors and posted online Sunday by Politico, a Nessel representative wrote that her office has a conflict of interest because a preliminary investigation by state police has determined that her opponent — lawyer Matthew DePerno — was ‘one of the prime instigators’ of a conspiracy to convince Michigan clerks to allow unauthorized access to voting machines.

… and beyond

Inside the war between Trump and his generals

For the New Yorker,  Susan B. Glasser and Peter Baker chronicle “how Mark Milley and others in the Pentagon handled the national-security threat posed by their own Commander-in-Chief.”

“It turned out that the generals had rules, standards, and expertise, not blind loyalty. The President’s loud complaint to John Kelly one day was typical: ‘You [expletive] generals, why can’t you be like the German generals?’”

“‘Which generals?’ Kelly asked.”

“‘The German generals in World War II,’ Trump responded.”

“'You do know that they tried to kill Hitler three times and almost pulled it off?’ Kelly said.”

“But, of course, Trump did not know that. ‘No, no, no, they were totally loyal to him,’ the President replied. In his version of history, the generals of the Third Reich had been completely subservient to Hitler; this was the model he wanted for his military.”

Paul Manafort in his first in-depth interview since going to prison for Trump: ‘I don’t apologize’

“I don’t feel like I need to explain myself,” Manafort tells Insider's Mattathias Schwartz. “But I’m not unwilling to explain myself. There are certain things that I would probably not do again. But I don’t apologize for things I’ve done in my life. Because I’ve always had the right motives for what I did in my life.”

“Do you want to mention any of the things that you would not do again?” Schwartz asks.

“I would have to think about that,” he replies. “I don’t know if — and if I — I’m not sure if I want to — the point is, the things that I have been publicly criticized for over the last several years are not correct. They’ve created a narrative of me that is not me.”

The Biden agenda

Biden’s policies have not revived Scranton. But few there blame him.

On Aug. 7 President Biden left the White House for the first time in 18 days, telling reporters he “felt good” following his coronavirus recovery. (Video: The Washington Post)

“If his election showed how far a self-described ‘kid from Scranton’ could go, two years of his presidency have exposed the limits of what Biden — maybe any president — can do for a place like this. If Biden’s political goal is to help people like his former neighbors, it’s not clear he’s succeeded, at least not yet,” Cleve R. Wootson Jr. reports.

Biden steps out of the room and finds legacy-defining wins

“Over five decades in Washington, Joe Biden knew that the way to influence was to be in the room where it happens. But in the second year of his presidency, some of Biden’s most striking, legacy-defining legislative victories came about by staying out of it,” the Associated Press's Seung Min Kim and Zeke Miller report.

Biden appeared to overstate the role of Al Qaeda’s leader

“Mr. Biden’s portrayal of al-Zawahri as a key plotter of the Sept. 11 attacks was echoed in many news accounts about his speech, including in The New York Times. But it surprised counterterrorism experts, as did the characterization of al-Zawahri’s role in the Cole bombing,” the New York Times's Carol Rosenberg and Charlie Savage report.

The House Republicans who broke ranks for the marriage bill, visualized

“Of the 47 House Republicans who voted in favor of the same-sex marriage legislation, 24 are on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s list of seats to target in the midterms. But only a handful represent true swing districts according to the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter’s ratings, given that polling continues to show Republicans are more likely to regain the House majority. They only need to net five seats from Democrats to do so,” Marianna Sotomayor and Hannah Dormido report.

Hot on the left

Sherrod Brown: Becoming the workers’ party again

“As inflation continues to batter families’ bank accounts—and the president’s poll numbers—even free-traders of yesteryear are beginning to admit the problems of a labyrinthine supply chain stretched across the globe,” Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) writes for the American Prospect.

“And for the first time in my memory, there’s real momentum to take action to fix it. Democrats just passed the kind of industrial policy we haven’t seen in many decades, to build out domestic supply chains of key inputs like semiconductors. It will create the kind of jobs that too many communities have lost. And it sends a clear message to these Americans that we have not forgotten them.”

Hot on the right

Karl Rove: Manchin’s deal won’t save the Democrats in the midterms

“Even while arguing that the bill’s passage will ‘make the Democratic closing argument stronger,’ Simon Rosenberg, president of NDN, a progressive think tank, admits that would only give “a point or two” to Democratic candidates. That’s simply not enough. It’s also already hard for Democratic candidates, especially in the House, to put daylight between themselves and Mr. Biden. This bill binds them tighter to the president and his dismal poll numbers,” Karl Rove writes for the Wall Street Journal.

Today in Washington

At 12:30 p.m., Biden will take part in a briefing on the area’s flooding response at Marie Roberts Elementary School in Lost Creek in Chavies, Ky.

The Bidens will visit with affected families and see the response in eastern Kentucky at 2 p.m., and Biden will deliver remarks.

At 3:25 p.m., the Bidens will depart Chavies and return to the White House by 5:50 p.m.

In closing

A long, long weekend in Washington

Thanks for reading. See you tomorrow.

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