State of the Union

United States?

A snapshot of Trump’s America on Day One

Unemployment by county, 2015:

U.S. counties are colored in four equal groups.

HIGHER RATE

1st quartile

2nd quartile

3rd quartile

4th quartile

LOWER

Percent change by sector

since 1990:

One of Trump’s campaign mantras was recovering manufacturing jobs. Since the ’90s the U.S. has lost over five million of these jobs.

Recent trends show some of these jobs have come back since the recession, but the net loss of manufacturing jobs is still high compared with that of other sectors.

+100%

Education

Professional

+50%

Construction

0

Manufacturing

-50%

’90

’15

Foreign-born

population, 2015:

Percent of each status

group’s workers in each

occupation:

U.S.

UNAUTHORIZED

BORN

IMMIGRANTS

Service

17

32

Migration policies intersect with economic, cultural and social issues.

A mass deporting scenario seems hard to imagine given the reality of today’s U.S. economic landscape.

Construction

16

5

Farming

1

4

Sales, office

13

25

Uninsured, 2014:

Americans with

insurance:

100%

Employed

80%

Trump promised during the campaign to repeal and replace Obamacare.

GOP lawmakers predict that could take years, as many people have gained coverage from the law.

60%

Unemployed

40%

’10

’13

’15

Households without

bank account, 2014:

Americans in each

class, 2014:

Upper

Class

Middle

100%

Since 2001, the middle class has been shrinking while both the upper and lower classes have been growing.

Lower

Sources: Pew Research Center analysis of the Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements; American Community Survey Comparative Economic Characteristics, 2009-2015; Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Employment and Wage data; staff reports

HIGHER

RATE

LOWER

Unemployment by county,

2015:

Foreign-born population,

2015:

Uninsured, 2014:

Households without bank

account, 2014:

Percent change by sector

since 1990:

Percent of each status

group’s workers in each

occupation:

Americans with

insurance:

Americans in each class,

2014:

+100%

100%

Upper

Education

U.S.

UNAUTHORIZED

Lower

Middle

Class

Professional

Employed

BORN

IMMIGRANTS

White

+50%

Black

80%

Service

Sales, office

Hispanic

Asian

Construction

13

25

100%

17

32

60%

0

Unemployed

Construction

Farming

Manufacturing

-50%

40%

1

4

’90

’15

’10

’13

’15

16

5

Since 2001, the middle class has been shrinking while both the upper and lower classes have been growing.

One of Trump’s campaign mantras was recovering manufacturing jobs. Since the ’90s the U.S. has lost over five million of these jobs.

Recent trends show some of these jobs have come back since the recession, but the net loss of manufacturing jobs is still high compared with that of other sectors.

Migration policies intersect with economic, cultural and social issues.

A mass deporting scenario seems hard to imagine given the reality of today’s U.S. economic landscape.

Trump promised during the campaign to repeal and replace Obamacare.

GOP lawmakers predict that could take years, as many people have gained coverage from the law.

Sources: Pew Research Center analysis of the Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements; American Community Survey Comparative Economic Characteristics, 2009-2015; Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Employment and Wage data; staff reports

Unemployment by county, 2015:

Foreign-born population, 2015:

Uninsured, 2014:

Households without bank

account, 2014:

U.S. counties are colored

in four equal groups.

HIGHER RATE

1st quartile

2nd quartile

3rd quartile

4th quartile

LOWER

Percent change by sector

Percent of each status group’s

Americans in each class, 2014:

Americans with insurance:

workers in each occupation:

since 1990:

U.S.

UNAUTHORIZED

+100%

BORN

IMMIGRANTS

100%

Education

Upper

Migration policies intersect with economic, cultural and social issues.

A mass deporting scenario seems hard to imagine given the reality of today’s U.S. economic landscape.

Trump promised during the campaign to repeal and replace Obamacare.

GOP lawmakers predict that could take years, as many people have gained coverage from the law.

Since 2001, the middle class has been shrinking while both the upper and lower classes have been growing.

One of Trump’s campaign mantras was recovering manufacturing jobs. Since the ’90s the U.S. has lost over five million of these jobs.

Recent trends show some of these jobs have come back since the recession, but the net loss of manufacturing jobs is still high compared with that of other sectors.

Service

Employed

Class

Professional

17

32

+50%

80%

Middle

Construction

100%

Construction

16

5

0

60%

Farming

1

4

Unemployed

Lower

Manufacturing

-50%

Sales, office

40%

’90

’15

’10

’13

’15

13

25

Sources: Pew Research Center analysis of the Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements; American Community Survey Comparative Economic Characteristics, 2009-2015; Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Employment and Wage data; staff reports

Unemployment by county, 2015:

Foreign-born population, 2015:

Uninsured, 2014:

Households without bank account, 2014:

U.S. counties are colored

in four equal groups.

HIGHER RATE

1st quartile

2nd quartile

3rd quartile

4th quartile

LOWER

Percent change by sector since 1990:

Percent of each status group’s workers in

each occupation:

Americans with insurance:

Americans in each class, 2014:

+100%

U.S.

UNAUTHORIZED

100%

Since 2001, the middle class has been shrinking while both the upper and lower classes have been growing.

One of Trump’s campaign mantras was recovering manufacturing jobs. Since the ’90s the U.S. has lost over five million of these jobs.

Recent trends show some of these jobs have come back since the recession, but the net loss of manufacturing jobs is still high compared with that of other sectors.

Trump promised during the campaign to repeal and replace Obamacare.

GOP lawmakers predict that could take years, as many people have gained coverage from the law.

Education

BORN

IMMIGRANTS

Upper

Employed

Class

Professional

Migration policies intersect with economic, cultural and social issues.

A mass deporting scenario seems hard to imagine given the reality of today’s U.S. economic landscape.

Service

+50%

17

32

80%

Middle

100%

Construction

Construction

16

5

0

60%

Farming

Unemployed

Lower

1

4

Manufacturing

-50%

40%

Sales, office

’90

’15

’10

’13

’15

13

25

Sources: Pew Research Center analysis of the Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements; American Community Survey Comparative Economic Characteristics, 2009-2015; Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Employment and Wage data; staff reports

Published on January 12, 2017

Over the past year, as voters grappled with choosing a president, many Americans were confronted with a country they did not recognize, or perhaps did not want to recognize. Elections have a way of exposing deep fissures in society, between classes, races and genders, between urban and rural areas, and between red and blue. In the wake of a tumultuous campaign, the potential for reconciliation appears more remote than usual, as Americans are increasingly at odds over what is actually true about what is happening in our country.

And yet, information is essential to the functioning of democracy. To that end, we offer a snapshot of the nation that President-elect Donald Trump takes over, with a particular focus on topics that dominated the election: employment, immigration, health care and the state of the American Dream. Regardless of our differences, this is our new starting point.

Unemployment by county, 2015:

U.S. counties are colored in four equal groups.

HIGHER RATE

1st quartile

2nd quartile

3rd quartile

4th quartile

LOWER

Percent change by sector

since 1990:

One of Trump’s campaign mantras was recovering manufacturing jobs. Since the ’90s the U.S. has lost over five million of these jobs.

Recent trends show some of these jobs have come back since the recession, but the net loss of manufacturing jobs is still high compared with that of other sectors.

+100%

Education

Professional

+50%

Construction

0

Manufacturing

-50%

’90

’15

Percent of each

status group’s

workers in each

occupation:

Foreign-born

population, 2015:

U.S.

UNAUTHORIZED

BORN

IMMIGRANTS

Service

17

32

Migration policies intersect with economic, cultural and social issues.

A mass deporting scenario seems hard to imagine given the reality of today’s U.S. economic landscape.

Construction

16

5

Farming

1

4

Sales, office

13

25

Uninsured, 2014:

Americans with

insurance:

100%

Employed

80%

Trump promised during the campaign to repeal and replace Obamacare.

GOP lawmakers predict that could take years, as many people have gained coverage from the law.

60%

Unemployed

40%

’10

’13

’15

Households without

bank account, 2014:

Americans in each

class, 2014:

Upper

Class

Since 2001, the middle class has been shrinking while both the upper and lower classes have been growing.

Middle

100%

Lower

Sources: Pew Research Center analysis of the Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements; American Community Survey Comparative Economic Characteristics, 2009-2015; Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Employment and Wage data; staff reports

HIGHER

RATE

LOWER

Unemployment by county,

2015:

Foreign-born population,

2015:

Uninsured, 2014:

Households without bank

account, 2014:

Percent change by sector

since 1990:

Percent of each status

group’s workers in each

occupation:

Americans with

insurance:

Americans in each class,

2014:

+100%

100%

Upper

Education

U.S.

UNAUTHORIZED

Lower

Middle

Class

Professional

Employed

BORN

IMMIGRANTS

White

+50%

Black

80%

Service

Sales, office

Hispanic

Asian

Construction

13

25

100%

17

32

60%

0

Unemployed

Construction

Farming

Manufacturing

-50%

40%

1

4

’90

’15

’10

’13

’15

16

5

Since 2001, the middle class has been shrinking while both the upper and lower classes have been growing.

One of Trump’s campaign mantras was recovering manufacturing jobs. Since the ’90s the U.S. has lost over five million of these jobs.

Recent trends show some of these jobs have come back since the recession, but the net loss of manufacturing jobs is still high compared with that of other sectors.

Migration policies intersect with economic, cultural and social issues.

A mass deporting scenario seems hard to imagine given the reality of today’s U.S. economic landscape.

Trump promised during the campaign to repeal and replace Obamacare.

GOP lawmakers predict that could take years, as many people have gained coverage from the law.

Sources: Pew Research Center analysis of the Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements; American Community Survey Comparative Economic Characteristics, 2009-2015; Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Employment and Wage data; staff reports

Unemployment by county, 2015:

Foreign-born population, 2015:

Uninsured, 2014:

Households without bank

account, 2014:

U.S. counties are colored

in four equal groups.

HIGHER RATE

1st quartile

2nd quartile

3rd quartile

4th quartile

LOWER

Percent change by sector

Percent of each status group’s

Americans in each class, 2014:

Americans with insurance:

workers in each occupation:

since 1990:

U.S.

UNAUTHORIZED

+100%

BORN

IMMIGRANTS

100%

Education

Upper

Migration policies intersect with economic, cultural and social issues.

A mass deporting scenario seems hard to imagine given the reality of today’s U.S. economic landscape.

Trump promised during the campaign to repeal and replace Obamacare.

GOP lawmakers predict that could take years, as many people have gained coverage from the law.

Since 2001, the middle class has been shrinking while both the upper and lower classes have been growing.

One of Trump’s campaign mantras was recovering manufacturing jobs. Since the ’90s the U.S. has lost over five million of these jobs.

Recent trends show some of these jobs have come back since the recession, but the net loss of manufacturing jobs is still high compared with that of other sectors.

Service

Employed

Class

Professional

17

32

+50%

80%

Middle

Construction

100%

Construction

16

5

0

60%

Farming

1

4

Unemployed

Lower

Manufacturing

-50%

Sales, office

40%

’90

’15

’10

’13

’15

13

25

Sources: Pew Research Center analysis of the Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements; American Community Survey Comparative Economic Characteristics, 2009-2015; Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Employment and Wage data; staff reports

Unemployment by county, 2015:

Foreign-born population, 2015:

Uninsured, 2014:

Households without bank account, 2014:

U.S. counties are colored

in four equal groups.

HIGHER RATE

1st quartile

2nd quartile

3rd quartile

4th quartile

LOWER

Percent change by sector since 1990:

Percent of each status group’s workers in

each occupation:

Americans with insurance:

Americans in each class, 2014:

+100%

U.S.

UNAUTHORIZED

100%

Since 2001, the middle class has been shrinking while both the upper and lower classes have been growing.

One of Trump’s campaign mantras was recovering manufacturing jobs. Since the ’90s the U.S. has lost over five million of these jobs.

Recent trends show some of these jobs have come back since the recession, but the net loss of manufacturing jobs is still high compared with that of other sectors.

Trump promised during the campaign to repeal and replace Obamacare.

GOP lawmakers predict that could take years, as many people have gained coverage from the law.

Education

BORN

IMMIGRANTS

Upper

Employed

Class

Professional

Migration policies intersect with economic, cultural and social issues.

A mass deporting scenario seems hard to imagine given the reality of today’s U.S. economic landscape.

Service

+50%

17

32

80%

Middle

100%

Construction

Construction

16

5

0

60%

Farming

Unemployed

Lower

1

4

Manufacturing

-50%

40%

Sales, office

’90

’15

’10

’13

’15

13

25

Sources: Pew Research Center analysis of the Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements; American Community Survey Comparative Economic Characteristics, 2009-2015; Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Employment and Wage data; staff reports

(Photo by Dustin Franz)

EMPLOYMENT

Eddie Haupin

Manufacturing jobs have fallen overall since 1990, but some types of manufacturing have fared better than others.

Percent change in number of jobs in various manufacturing sectors

Dec. 2007–

Jun. 2009

recession

Number

of jobs

in 1990

Food

Fabricated

metal

75%

Overall

50%

25%

Apparel

1990

2015

Haupin, 35, seen here in the warehouse of Cleveland’s Stripmatic Products, has had his ups and downs in manufacturing, but in some ways, and despite the long workdays, he has also been one of the lucky ones.

During the week, Eddie Haupin’s alarm goes off at 4 a.m. in his apartment near the Cleveland airport. By 6 a.m., he is wearing safety glasses and earplugs and starting his shift on the shop floor at a manufacturer called Stripmatic Products.

Stripmatic has only 35 employees. But it’s a bright spot in an otherwise discouraging picture for U.S. manufacturing, which has lost more than  5 million jobs since the ’90s.

Haupin started as a laborer at Stripmatic 17 years ago, right after high school. Now 35, he is a wire electronic discharge machine technician. He earns more than $50,000 a year building dies to make tubular-shaped steel parts that are mostly used in automotive suspension and chassis assemblies.

In 2009, during the Great Recession, Haupin was part of a small group of employees that was laid off. “I was stressed out at that time because that’s when I was engaged, and a year later we were going to get married, and I was like, ‘What am I going to do?’ ” he says.

He survived on unemployment benefits. After three months, Stripmatic called him back. The marriage didn’t work out, but he spends his weekends with his 5-year-old daughter.

To earn extra money, he drives for Uber a couple of times a week after his shift at Stripmatic ends at 4:30 p.m. Between the Uber gig, Haupin’s 10-hour workday and his ex-wife’s full-time job as an export coordinator, he says, “Our daughter is always saying, ‘I don’t want you to [leave],’ but we try to tell her that in order for her to have the things she has we have to go to work.”

— Leslie Caimi

Manufacturing jobs have fallen overall since 1990, but some types of manufacturing have fared better than others.

Percent change in number of jobs in various manufacturing sectors

Dec. 2007–

Jun. 2009

recession

Number

of jobs

in 1990

Food

Fabricated

metal

75%

Overall

50%

25%

Apparel

1990

2015

(Photo by Logan Cyrus)

IMMIGRATION

Manuel ‘Manolo’ Betancur

The percentage of native-born Americans and naturalized U.S. citizens in each income bracket is similar, but non-citizen immigrants are more likely to make less.

Under

$25,000

$25k–

$49k

$50k–

$74k

$75k+

Native-born

Americans

Naturalized

citizens

Non-citizens

Source: Selected Characteristics of the Native

and Foreign-born Populations, U.S. Census

Bureau

The Charlotte business owner, 40, came to America in 2000. He knows that massive deportations of illegal immigrants could greatly affect his daily operations, since he depends on both immigrant labor and immigrant clients.

The promise of America is as real to Manuel “Manolo” Betancur as when he came chasing it from Colombia in 2000 with $900 in his pocket. To hang on to it, however, the bakery and coffee shop owner in Charlotte has learned he must be nimble about seizing opportunities.

“Too many immigrant-owned businesses are afraid to take the next step, or they don’t know how to take the next step,” he says early one morning at Las Delicias Bakery as he greets customers in Spanish and helps load a delivery van with fresh Mexican and Colombian breads, pastries and cakes.

Betancur, 40, who became a citizen in 2008, started the deliveries during the recession when the business was in decline, realizing that scores of Latino stores had sprouted in small towns of North Carolina and Virginia to serve a growing immigrant population hungry for familiar delicacies. Now his drivers, Miguel Angel Marín and Carolina Bejarano, roam as far north as Lynchburg, Va. Deliveries account for half of sales, which he says have grown to $1 million.

Betancur and his ex-wife, Zhenia Martínez, who came from Mexico, took over the bakery founded by her parents. Betancur and Martínez remain business partners and have two children born in the United States, ages 7 and 5.

Betancur, who also owns Mama’s Coffee House in Pineville, is always on the move. He pitches the owner of a restaurant chain on carrying his tamales and pastries, then heads to the University of North Carolina at Charlotte for small-business training. He is spurred by concern that Donald Trump might keep his campaign promise of mass deportations.

“My business depends 95 percent on immigrant labor and immigrant clients,” he tells the small-business coach. “What happens if everyone has to leave? I want to have a plan B.”

He knows the complexities of the issue. Two of his brothers have been waiting eight years to immigrate legally, yet he sympathizes with undocumented immigrants who fled violence and poverty.

“We don’t want bad people here,” he says. He would require the undocumented to “pay taxes, learn English, get involved in the system.”

However they arrived, he wants the newcomers to show the same commitment that he has to the common dream.

— David Montgomery

The percentage of native-born Americans and naturalized U.S. citizens in each income bracket is similar, but non-citizen immigrants are more likely to make less.

Under

$25,000

$25k–

$49k

$50k–

$74k

$75k+

Native-born

Americans

Naturalized

citizens

Non-citizens

Source: Selected Characteristics of the Native

and Foreign-born Populations, U.S. Census

Bureau

(Photos by Luke Sharrett)
HEALTH CARE

The Polhemuses

Kentucky saw a 61 percent decrease in the uninsured rate since 2010.

2010

2015

15%

6%

0%

151,000 additional Kentuckians received Medicaid from the state’s expansion in 2014.

A rising share of insured Kentuckians have their coverage through Medicaid

2013

2015

30%

26%

18%

0%

Source: Department of Health and Human

Services Compilation of State Data on the

Affordable Care Act, U.S. Census Bureau

American Community Survey

With employment opportunities scarce and a spate of health issues, the family — including Floyde and Mary Polhemus, her son, Jeremy Smith, 24, and his 4-month-old daughter, Cynthia — braces itself for changes in health-care coverage.

On a road that winds its way out of the business district of the small coal town of Hazard, Ky., Floyde and Mary Polhemus share a small apartment with her  son, his wife and the young couple’s daughter, Cynthia.

At nearly 5 months old,  she holds the household’s adults in the palm of her chubby little hand. She brings joy and light to these tight quarters, in tight financial times.

Health care is at the top of a long list of worries and frustrations for the Polhemuses. Both Floyde and Mary, 47 and 46, have major health challenges and no work. Originally from Adrian, Mich., they’ve spent nearly 16 years in this once-booming mining town.

In his lifetime, Floyde has worked in maintenance, manufacturing and security. Mary has been a waitress and fast-food worker. Now they live mainly on Floyde’s $753 monthly disability check, which he learned last month would get a $2 bump.

“That’s about enough to get a pop,” he says wryly.

Mary’s son from an earlier marriage, Jeremy Smith, 24, and his wife, Ashley, 21, moved in about six months ago. They came from Adrian, too, where Jeremy says there was no work. In Hazard, he’s put in applications at Walmart, Dollar Tree and fast-food places and is waiting for callbacks.

Mary added up the monthly medical costs: about $2,500 for Floyde, $3,500 for herself.

“And that’s just in medications,” says Mary, who has diabetes and problems with her back and legs. Floyde is bipolar and says he has been told to see a specialist for unexplained stomach ailments. Medicaid covers their costs.

Gov. Matt Bevin (R) recently dismantled the state’s health-care insurance exchange, calling it costly and redundant to the Affordable Care Act’s federal exchange. Floyde worries what might happen if there are cuts to programs such as Medicaid or disability. As it is now, he and Mary  parse their way through what’s covered and what’s not for services such as dental and eye care. If he had it his way, Floyde says, “They’d have the medical take[n] care for everybody.”

— Marcia Davis

Kentucky saw a 61 percent decrease in the uninsured rate since 2010.

2010

2015

15%

6%

0%

151,000 additional Kentuckians received Medicaid from the state’s expansion in 2014.

A rising share of insured Kentuckians have their coverage through Medicaid

2013

2015

30%

26%

18%

0%

Source: Department of Health and Human

Services Compilation of State Data on the

Affordable Care Act, U.S. Census Bureau

American Community Survey

(Photo by Andrew Innerarity)

THE AMERICAN DREAM

Niki Skipper

In Broward County, Fla., where Pompano Beach is located, many renters spend a high percentage of their income on rent.

Rent as a percentage of household income

Broward

Co., Fla.

U.S.

average

35% or more

25%–34.9%

15%–24.9%

Less than 15%

Source: American Community Survey

Comparative Housing Characteristics

The 40-year-old health-care administrator believes Trump will create jobs and pave the way for more people in the African American community to be successful. The Florida resident looks forward to the day she can be a homeowner.

In Niki Skipper’s living room in Pompano Beach, Fla., a large wood carving that reads “Inspire” catches the eye. It sits atop a Hensel baby grand piano, next to a portrait of Skipper and her family taken on a trip to Disney World.

It’s a hopeful tableau. But the Skippers haven’t been traveling lately. Niki, a 40-year-old health-care administrator, and husband Eric, 43, who owns a small landscaping business and inherited the piano when a client moved, are saving to buy a home. That’s not easy when you pay $1,550 a month in rent and have three children, ages 20, 14 and 13, one recently diagnosed with epilepsy.

Though the couple manages on a combined income of about $73,000, there is no money for extras such as movies and restaurants.

Skipper, a formal woman wearing a dark-blue dress, is hoping for better times — especially for young people — with a Donald Trump presidency.

“He’ll create jobs,” she says. “He’s going to show people in my community that if you’re given the opportunity to be successful, then you will be.”

Skipper’s  parents — her late father operated heavy equipment; her mother is a nurse — taught her the importance of hard work and perseverance. Their example compelled her to excel in school and earn an associate’s degree in health administration. When she was laid off from her job as a bank mortgage coordinator, she found her current, better position.

Skipper believes many in the African American community lack the role models she had in her parents and church in this once-sleepy southeastern Florida city that now booms with resort development. She thinks Trump’s blunt talk and focus on individual achievement can provide that guidance, which is particularly important to her as her children — who are off doing homework — become politically aware.

While Skipper’s mother and brothers, to whom she remains close, are Democrats, she believes the Democrats have failed African Americans. “They think we just want handouts, that we’re lazy and not functional.

“Donald Trump is not offering handouts. He’s going to open doors so we can be successful.”

— Tal Abbady

In Broward County, Fla., where Pompano Beach is located, many renters spend a high percentage of their income on rent.

Rent as a percentage of household income

Broward

Co., Fla.

U.S.

average

35% or more

25%–34.9%

15%–24.9%

Less than 15%

Source: American Community Survey

Comparative Housing Characteristics

Credits