Home field had been a disadvantage for the first eight weeks of this NFL season. Hosting clubs managed just a 57-63-1 record during that span, the first time since 2002, when the league expanded to 32 teams, that home teams didn’t post a winning record during the first half of the season. Then, in Week 9, fortunes changed and the home teams went 11-3 (.786 win rate).

However, home favorites remain vulnerable against the spread. Those teams have a 40-50-2 record in 2019 and there are a couple this week who should also contribute to the (betting) loss column.

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (-3)

Pick: Buffalo Bills +3

Buffalo’s pass rush should be the difference here. According to Pro Football Focus, Buffalo has the fifth-best pass rushing unit of 2019 and Cleveland sports the 20th best pass-blocking unit. Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield, meanwhile, sees his passer rating drop from 83.0 in a clean pocket to 40.8 when facing pass pressure this year. For comparison, a player will get a 39.6 passer rating for throwing the ball into the dirt. The favored Browns, in general, are a hot mess, while the Bills are 6-2.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-6)

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Pick: Seattle Seahawks +6

San Francisco barely got past the Arizona Cardinals last week and will be without linebacker Kwon Alexander (torn pectoral muscle) on Monday night. Plus, this will be the best offense the 49ers have faced all year. According to Football Outsiders, the Seahawks, led by quarterback and MVP candidate Russell Wilson, are the third-most efficient offensive team of 2019 after accounting for strength of schedule. San Francisco hasn’t faced an offense ranked higher than 16th (Arizona) this season.

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The two games above represent our best plays of the week because our analysis shows the point spreads are the most divergent from what we expect to happen once the teams take the field. Below are picks for the other games on this week’s schedule. However, trying to pick every single NFL game is something of a fool’s errand. The house wins so often partly because bettors try to make too many plays when the odds aren’t in their favor. Keep that in mind when evaluating the remaining games from the Week 10 slate.

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Los Angeles Chargers (-1) at Oakland Raiders

Pick: Los Angeles Chargers -1

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-2½)

Pick: Chicago Bears -2½

Baltimore Ravens (-10) at Cincinnati Bengals

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals +10

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-5)

Pick: Green Bay Packers -5

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-13)

Pick: New Orleans Saints -13

Kansas City Chiefs (-6) at Tennessee Titans

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -6

New York Giants (-2½) at New York Jets

Pick: New York Jets +2½

Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4½)

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4½

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-10½)

Pick: Indianapolis Colts -10½

Los Angeles Rams (-3½) at Pittsburgh Steelers

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Pick: Los Angeles Rams -3½

Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (-3)

Pick: Dallas Cowboys -3

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