There are two big changes to the draft order since my first mock draft of the year, with the Indianapolis Colts sending the 13th pick to the San Francisco 49ers for defensive lineman DeForest Buckner and the Buffalo Bills trading the 22nd selection to the Minnesota Vikings for wide receiver Stefon Diggs.
Here is my updated projection of all 32 first-round picks:
1. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB, LSU
Burrow is a near-lock for this pick. The only question for the Bengals is whether they will keep Andy Dalton. A trade market hasn’t developed for him as mass quarterback movement unfolded during free agency.
2. Washington Redskins: Chase Young, DE, Ohio State
No change here. Ron Rivera has been filling his defense with low-cost veterans in addition to signing cornerback Kendall Fuller to a four-year, $40 million contract. But there’s still room for Young, who could follow in Nick Bosa’s footsteps from a year ago as an impact edge rusher out of Ohio State becoming the second pick.
3. Detroit Lions: Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State
The Lions traded star cornerback Darius Slay to Philadelphia and signed Desmond Trufant to a two-year, $21 million deal to help replace him. Detroit is one of the more unpredictable teams in the draft, but I still have it taking Okudah, a shutdown cornerback, in this spot.
4. New York Giants: Mekhi Becton, T, Louisville
The one-year contract for right tackle Cameron Fleming doesn’t change the fact that the Giants could try to add a tackle at this spot. Tristan Wirfs is a possibility, but it’s going to be hard for General Manager Dave Gettleman to pass on Becton, a massive blocker with exceptional athletic ability.
5. Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
It’s unclear what effect the novel coronavirus-related restrictions on travel and physicals will have on Tagovailoa, who is hoping to prove to teams he is fully recovered from the serious hip injury he suffered in November. But if Miami is comfortable with his health, this is a logical landing spot for him as the Dolphins’ quarterback of the future.
6. Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
The Chargers made an offer to Tom Brady before he chose Tampa Bay, and they might consider signing Jameis Winston or Cam Newton. But for now their plan is to keep Tyrod Taylor as the starter and draft a quarterback to develop behind him.
7. Carolina Panthers: Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson
I had the Panthers taking defensive tackle Derrick Brown in my last mock draft, and that’s still a possibility. But Simmons had such a great combine that he needs to move into the top 10. He ran a 4.39-second 40-yard dash and should be a great sideline-to-sideline playmaker.
8. Arizona Cardinals: Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa
I thought Wirfs made sense for the Cardinals at this spot even before they dealt their second-round pick as part of the blockbuster trade for star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, and it’s an even better fit now. Wirfs could give Arizona an athletic bookend opposite left tackle D.J. Humphries to protect last year’s top pick, quarterback Kyler Murray.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars: Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn
A year ago, the Jaguars got lucky when they took edge rusher Josh Allen in the first round and offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor fell to them in the second. The luck continues here, with Brown dropping to them at No. 9 and filling a need in the middle of their defensive line.
10. Cleveland Browns: Andrew Thomas, T, Georgia
These next two picks could be affected if the Redskins trade Trent Williams to the Browns or the Jets. The Browns need a left tackle, so Thomas fits well here opposite right tackle Jack Conklin, whom Cleveland signed in free agency.
11. New York Jets: Jedrick Wills, T, Alabama
The Jets are overhauling their offensive line by signing several free agents in addition to bringing back guard Alex Lewis. But they still need a right tackle, and the athletic Wills would complete the unit’s rebuild.
12. Las Vegas Raiders: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma
Coach Jon Gruden and General Manager Mike Mayock took care of the defense in free agency, so they can use this pick to get the best wideout in the draft. Lamb is a tall receiver with great playmaking ability.
13. San Francisco 49ers: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama
The Buckner trade puts the 49ers in position to land one of the top wide receivers in the draft. After losing Emmanuel Sanders to New Orleans, they will be thrilled to add Jeudy or Lamb.
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina
After signing Brady in free agency, the Bucs can focus on adding an impact defender. Kinlaw would be an interior disrupter on the defensive line.
15. Denver Broncos: Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama
The Broncos, who are having a very good offseason, want to add speed at wide receiver. Ruggs gives them a 4.27 speedster for second-year quarterback Drew Lock.
16. Atlanta Falcons: CJ Henderson, CB, Florida
Dante Fowler Jr., whom they added in free agency on a three-year, $45 million deal, helps take care of their need at defensive end. With Henderson, they could fill another need with one of the best cornerbacks in the draft.
17. Dallas Cowboys: K’Lavon Chaisson, LB, LSU
The Cowboys appear to be in the process of going to a 3-4 base defense. They addressed the defensive line in free agency, and Chaisson would give them an outside linebacker who can rush the quarterback.
18. Miami Dolphins: Austin Jackson, T, USC
The Dolphins went heavy on defense in free agency. In the draft, look for them to start fixing the offense. Getting a tackle is essential, which is why Jackson could be a good fit.
19. Las Vegas Raiders: Patrick Queen, LB, LSU
The Raiders would complete the rebuilding of their linebacker corps they began in free agency with this pick. They would have Queen, Cory Littleton and Nick Kwiatkoski as their starting linebackers. Impressive.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama
Jacksonville needs to restock its defense, particularly at cornerback, after trading Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. The Jaguars signed Darqueze Dennard to fill one spot, and Diggs, considered the third-best cornerback in the draft, would be a nice fit with Dennard and D.J. Hayden.
21. Philadelphia Eagles: Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson
Everyone knows the Eagles need help at wide receiver. After they failed to land Hopkins in a trade, Higgins, a big target, would be a nice fallback.
22. Minnesota Vikings: AJ Terrell, CB, Clemson
The Vikings are down their top three corners following cuts and free agency. Using the pick they got from Buffalo, there’s a simple solution: Draft the best cornerback available. In this scenario, that’s Terrell.
23. New England Patriots: Jordan Love, QB, Utah State
The Patriots could opt to sign Newton or Winston or trade for Dalton. But if not, they could get a steal in Love, who has the potential to go in the top 15 but could slide because of the lack of QB-needy teams picking early.
24. New Orleans Saints: Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU
Even though the Saints added Sanders in free agency to pair with star Michael Thomas, they can get even better at wide receiver by drafting Jefferson.
25. Minnesota Vikings: Laviska Shenault Jr., WR, Colorado
The Vikings need to replace Stefon Diggs after dealing him to Buffalo. They can fill the void with Shenault, who is a versatile and athletic playmaker.
26. Miami Dolphins: D’Andre Swift, RB, Georgia
I had the Dolphins taking running back Jonathan Taylor in the last mock, but Swift might be a better fit given his pass-catching ability. He and newly signed Jordan Howard would form a solid backfield duo.
27. Seattle Seahawks: Yetur Gross-Matos, DE, Penn State
There is a good chance the Seahawks could trade down. But if they stay here, a lot will depend on whether they re-sign star edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney, who hasn’t received the free agent offers he was expecting. If Clowney goes elsewhere, Gross-Matos would help the pass rush.
28. Baltimore Ravens: Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma
The Ravens have had an unsettled linebacker group the past couple of years. Murray would give them a stud linebacker, the kind they haven’t had since C.J. Mosley left in free agency.
29. Tennessee Titans: Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU
If free agent Logan Ryan doesn’t come back, the Titans need to add a cornerback. They could go for Gladney or LSU’s Kristian Fulton.
30. Green Bay Packers: Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor
Aaron Rodgers had little beyond Davante Adams at wide receiver last season. Even after adding Devin Funchess in free agency, the Packers would do well to take the best wide receiver on their board. Mims or Arizona State’s Brandon Aiyuk would make sense.
31. San Francisco 49ers: Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama
Even though the 49ers need a cornerback more, it’s going to be hard to pass up the best safety in the draft if McKinney is available here.
32. Kansas City Chiefs: Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU
The Chiefs lost Fuller to the Redskins, and Bashaud Breeland could leave as well. They might look at Taylor to boost their running back options, but Fulton makes more sense because he would fill the Super Bowl champions’ biggest need.