There have been some changes heading into the first week of the regular season. Leonard Fournette was released by the Jacksonville Jaguars and resurfaced a few days later as a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He will be second on the depth chart behind Ronald Jones. Kansas City Chiefs rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire gets a boost after Damien Williams, the team’s leading rusher last season, opted out of the season because of the health risks associated with the novel coronavirus.

Here are the updated next-level rankings of the top 200 potential picks, complete with season-long projected point totals. These projections, which use point-per-reception (PPR) scoring, are adjusted for injury risk, positional scarcity and strength of schedule. For those who sweat the nitty-gritty, you can read more about the methodology here, including how the players are ranked.

This year, we’re also counseling fantasy GMs to avoid the Zero RB strategy, and we’ve again put together the perfect fantasy draft.

1. Christian McCaffrey (CAR-RB)

431 projected fantasy points in 2020

The third-year back had the second-best fantasy season in NFL history last year. McCaffrey earned a ridiculous 471.2 fantasy points, thanks to a league-high 2,392 yards from scrimmage and 19 total touchdowns. He also became the third player in NFL history to record 1,000 or more rushing yards and 1,000 or more receiving yards in the same season. And in 2020, you can expect the Panthers, now with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback and under new head coach Matt Rhule, to rely on McCaffrey again.

Indeed, McCaffrey is the consensus No. 1 pick in fantasy drafts, and appears poised for another standout season. Since he is the projected top running back we can expect him to score around 430 fantasy points, a simple three-year weighted average of the top spot. The top running back scored an average of 391 fantasy points from 2002 to 2019 (six times topping the 400-point mark), while the second-best back has averaged 348 fantasy points.

Plus, McCaffrey has little injury risk (he has never missed a game); is in his prime (he turned 24 in January) and gets a massive workload. He is responsible for more than half (53 percent) of Carolina’s rushes and catches since his rookie season in 2017.

2. Saquon Barkley (NYG-RB)

349 projected fantasy points in 2020

Barkley carried the ball 217 times for 1,003 yards and six touchdowns in 13 games last season. He added 52 catches (on 73 targets) for 438 receiving yards and two touchdowns. A vertical offensive scheme under new Giants offensive coordinator Jason Garrett plus a bolstered offensive line should allow Barkley to have a fantasy season that surpasses either of his first two campaigns.

3. Ezekiel Elliott (DAL-RB)

338 projected fantasy points in 2020

No running back got more carries in the red zone last year than Elliott and only four got more targets through the air, making him a solid contributor to any fantasy squad. Plus, the Cowboys are expected to have the third-best offensive line in the NFL next season, per the game charters at Pro Football Focus.

4. Michael Thomas (NO-WR)

377 projected fantasy points in 2020

Thomas is coming off a record-breaking year in which he set the NFL’s single-season receptions mark with 149. He also led the league in target share, accounting for a third of his team’s passing attempts.

5. Alvin Kamara (NO-RB)

326 projected fantasy points in 2020

Kamara has led the Saints in share of red-zone touches over the past three seasons (33 percent), and he’s been among the league leaders twice in the past three seasons in terms of fantasy points per carry.

6. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC-RB)

307 projected fantasy points in 2020

Edwards-Helaire produced 2,621 total yards and 24 total touchdowns in his last two years at LSU and was highest-graded zone runner in the nation out of 101 players with a minimum of 100 attempts, per Pro Football Focus. That plays well in the Chiefs running scheme, which used a zone-blocking scheme on 70 percent of their rushing attempts in 2019, 15 percentage points above the NFL average.

7. Dalvin Cook (MIN-RB)

291 projected fantasy points in 2020

No longer a threat to hold out for the season, Cook is in a prime spot for 2020. The Pro Bowler produced 1,654 yards from scrimmage and 13 total touchdowns last season for a team that loves running the ball. Minnesota called a rushing play 49 percent of the time last year, the third-highest rate in the NFL.

8. Julio Jones (ATL-WR)

312 projected fantasy points in 2020

Jones has topped 1,300 receiving yards six years in a row and his catch rate on deep throws (46 percent on passes traveling 20 or more yards) last season was the third highest among wideouts with at least 25 deep targets.

9. Davante Adams (GB-WR)

311 projected fantasy points in 2020

Adams has seen more than 110 targets in four straight seasons — and that’s despite him missing four games last year with a turf toe injury. That’s because he and quarterback Aaron Rodgers have tremendous chemistry. Rodgers’s passer rating when he targets Adams over those four years is 109.0, compared to 95.9 when he targets any other Packers.

Aaron Rodgers (2017 to 2019)
YDS/ATT
TD%
Passer rating
Passes to Davante Adams
8.0
8 percent
109.0
Passes to everyone else
7.0
4 percent
95.9

10. Patrick Mahomes (KC-QB)

433 projected fantasy points in 2020

Mahomes finished as just the seventh-best fantasy quarterback in 2019 largely due to throwing one or no touchdowns passes in seven of his 14 regular season games. That shouldn’t happen this year, especially with the Chiefs facing three of the worst projected secondaries of 2020 per Pro Football Focus (Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers and New York Jets) and nine below average secondaries overall. As an added bonus, the game against the Falcons occurs in Week 16, typically reserved for fantasy football championship matchups.

11. Miles Sanders (PHI-RB)

267 projected fantasy points in 2020

The 23-year-old showed he was a capable three-down back as a rookie last season, averaging 4.6 yards per carry and 10.2 yards per reception.

12. Tyreek Hill (KC-WR)

306 projected fantasy points in 2020

The speedster missed four games due to suspension last year but still managed to catch 58 of 89 targets for 860 yards and seven touchdowns. From Weeks 6 to 14, which is usually the end of the fantasy football regular season, only four wideouts saw more deep targets (20 or more yards) than Hill.

13. Derrick Henry (TEN-RB)

263 projected fantasy points in 2020

Henry enjoyed a career year in 2019, carrying the ball 303 times for a league-leading 1,540 yards plus 16 touchdowns. The Tennessee coaching staff uses an outside zone scheme that helped Henry produce a success rate six percent higher than average when he ran to the left side of the offensive line and 16 percent higher than average when his run took him to the right side, per Sharp Sports stats.

14. DeAndre Hopkins (ARI-WR)

301 projected fantasy points in 2020

A surprise March trade sent Hopkins to Arizona, where he will be paired with quarterback Kyler Murray and will play alongside Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk. Hopkins’s target share should drop but he will also get to face weaker secondaries such as the Washington Football Team (28th best secondary heading into 2020, per PFF), Carolina Panthers (31st), New York Jets (32nd), Dallas Cowboys (22nd) and New York Giants (27th).

15. Chris Godwin (TB-WR)

298 projected fantasy points in 2020

Godwin finished as the second-highest scoring wideout in PPR leagues last season despite seeing fewer than 20 percent of his team’s targets (121 targets). Teammate Mike Evans also got more red-zone opportunities than Godwin (16 to 13).

16. Allen Robinson (CHI-WR)

291 projected fantasy points in 2020

Robinson led the league in success rate (how often a receiver gets open against the defenders covering him) when facing man coverage in 2019, according to Matt Harmon of Yahoo Sports. Robinson was successful 79 percent of the time he faced man coverage.

17. Austin Ekeler (LAC-RB)

248 projected fantasy points in 2020

Ekeler is a dynamic playmaker who earned PFF’s highest receiving grade among running backs in 2019. Expect new quarterback Tyrod Taylor to lean just as heavily on Ekeler out of the backfield. During Taylor’s time as a starting quarterback in Buffalo (2015 to 2017), he threw to his running backs more than 18 percent of the time, per data from TruMedia — 10th-most among quarterbacks in that span.

18. Kenny Golladay (DET-WR)

281 projected fantasy points in 2020

Golladay caught passes from three different quarterbacks in 2019 and still managed to break the 1,000-yard plateau with 11 touchdowns. Plus, he saw the second-most end zone targets (14) last year.

19. Travis Kelce (KC-TE)

279 projected fantasy points in 2020

The top fantasy tight end surpassed 1,000 receiving yards for a fourth straight season and continues to rack up the red-zone targets. Kelce hasn’t ranked outside of the top six tight ends for most red-zone targets in a season since 2015, and he has been in the top three in each of the past three years.

Season
Red-zone targets
Rank among TE
2014
11
16th
2015
10
14th
2016
16
6th
2017
19
3rd
2018
24
2nd
2019
19
1st

20. Kenyan Drake (ARI-RB)

241 projected fantasy points in 2020

After joining the Cardinals in Week 9, Drake saw his fantasy output soar from 9.5 to 19.7 points per game in point-per-reception leagues. He averaged better than 25 points per game in Weeks 15 and 16, typically reserved for the fantasy football semifinal and championship rounds.

21. Mike Evans (TB-WR)

278 projected fantasy points in 2020

Among players with at least 50 targets last season, only three saw a higher average depth of target than Evans (15.1 yards past the line of scrimmage). Only D.K. Metcalf saw more targets than Evans in the end zone (14).

22. Joe Mixon (CIN-RB)

238 projected fantasy points in 2020

Mixon’s name was called 18 times inside the 5-yard line in 2019 and he scored seven touchdowns in those chances. Only two other running backs, Cook and McCaffrey, had more touches in those situations.

23. James Conner (PIT-RB)

234 projected fantasy points in 2020

An injury-riddled season in 2019 limited him to 10 games but the entire Pittsburgh Steelers offense is poised to rebound with Ben Ben Roethlisberger back under center.

24. D.J. Moore (CAR-WR)

267 projected fantasy points in 2020

Carolina’s first-round pick in 2018 had four games with at least 100 receiving yards in 2019, plus he was one of five players to make at least four plays of 50 or more yards last year.

25. JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT-WR)

263 projected fantasy points in 2020

Pittsburgh backup starting quarterbacks Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges threw 54 catchable balls to Smith-Schuster last season, one of the lowest rates among receivers with at least as many targets as Smith-Schuster (70), per data from Sports Info Solutions. Starter Ben Roethlisberger, by comparison, threw him a catchable pass 87 percent of the time from 2017 to 2018.

26. Jonathan Taylor (IND-RB)

223 projected fantasy points in 2020

27. Amari Cooper (DAL-WR)

256 projected fantasy points in 2020

28. Adam Thielen (MIN-WR)

248 projected fantasy points in 2020

29. George Kittle (SF-TE)

257 projected fantasy points in 2020

30. Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE-WR)

248 projected fantasy points in 2020

31. Todd Gurley (ATL-RB)

214 projected fantasy points in 2020

32. Cooper Kupp (LAR-WR)

246 projected fantasy points in 2020

33. Nick Chubb (CLE-RB)

212 projected fantasy points in 2020

34. Josh Jacobs (LV-RB)

208 projected fantasy points in 2020

35. Robert Woods (LAR-WR)

239 projected fantasy points in 2020

36. Chris Carson (SEA-RB)

206 projected fantasy points in 2020

37. Calvin Ridley (ATL-WR)

234 projected fantasy points in 2020

38. Zach Ertz (PHI-TE)

244 projected fantasy points in 2020

39. Aaron Jones (GB-RB)

197 projected fantasy points in 2020

40. Keenan Allen (LAC-WR)

224 projected fantasy points in 2020

41. A.J. Brown (TEN-WR)

223 projected fantasy points in 2020

42. David Johnson (HOU-RB)

192 projected fantasy points in 2020

43. Leonard Fournette (TB-RB)

190 projected fantasy points in 2020

44. Courtland Sutton (DEN-WR)

217 projected fantasy points in 2020

45. D.J. Chark (JAC-WR)

217 projected fantasy points in 2020

46. Lamar Jackson (BAL-QB)

367 projected fantasy points in 2020

47. Mark Ingram II (BAL-RB)

186 projected fantasy points in 2020

48. Tyler Lockett (SEA-WR)

213 projected fantasy points in 2020

49. Terry McLaurin (WAS-WR)

211 projected fantasy points in 2020

50. Mark Andrews (BAL-TE)

228 projected fantasy points in 2020

51. David Montgomery (CHI-RB)

181 projected fantasy points in 2020

52. D.K. Metcalf (SEA-WR)

201 projected fantasy points in 2020

53. Melvin Gordon (DEN-RB)

174 projected fantasy points in 2020

54. Raheem Mostert (SF-RB)

171 projected fantasy points in 2020

55. DeVante Parker (MIA-WR)

195 projected fantasy points in 2020

56. Dak Prescott (DAL-QB)

353 projected fantasy points in 2020

57. Stefon Diggs (BUF-WR)

192 projected fantasy points in 2020

58. T.Y. Hilton (IND-WR)

191 projected fantasy points in 2020

59. Kareem Hunt (CLE-RB)

166 projected fantasy points in 2020

60. Jarvis Landry (CLE-WR)

187 projected fantasy points in 2020

61. Darren Waller (LV-TE)

212 projected fantasy points in 2020

62. Tyler Boyd (CIN-WR)

185 projected fantasy points in 2020

63. Devin Singletary (BUF-RB)

160 projected fantasy points in 2020

64. Cam Akers (LAR-RB)

159 projected fantasy points in 2020

65. Julian Edelman (NE-WR)

181 projected fantasy points in 2020

66. A.J. Green (CIN-WR)

181 projected fantasy points in 2020

67. Marquise Brown (BAL-WR)

180 projected fantasy points in 2020

68. Russell Wilson (SEA-QB)

341 projected fantasy points in 2020

69. Tarik Cohen (CHI-RB)

154 projected fantasy points in 2020

70. Michael Gallup (DAL-WR)

175 projected fantasy points in 2020

71. Le’Veon Bell (NYJ-RB)

153 projected fantasy points in 2020

72. Phillip Lindsay (DEN-RB)

153 projected fantasy points in 2020

73. Marvin Jones (DET-WR)

170 projected fantasy points in 2020

74. James White (NE-RB)

148 projected fantasy points in 2020

75. Evan Engram (NYG-TE)

196 projected fantasy points in 2020

76. J.K. Dobbins (BAL-RB)

143 projected fantasy points in 2020

77. Antonio Gibson (WAS-RB)

139 projected fantasy points in 2020

78. Brandin Cooks (HOU-WR)

158 projected fantasy points in 2020

79. Jordan Howard (MIA-RB)

139 projected fantasy points in 2020

80. Kyler Murray (ARI-QB)

328 projected fantasy points in 2020

81. Matt Breida (MIA-RB)

138 projected fantasy points in 2020

82. Ronald Jones II (TB-RB)

137 projected fantasy points in 2020

83. Christian Kirk (ARI-WR)

153 projected fantasy points in 2020

84. Will Fuller (HOU-WR)

153 projected fantasy points in 2020

85. D’Andre Swift (DET-RB)

134 projected fantasy points in 2020

86. Latavius Murray (NO-RB)

134 projected fantasy points in 2020

87. Diontae Johnson (PIT-WR)

149 projected fantasy points in 2020

88. Tevin Coleman (SF-RB)

127 projected fantasy points in 2020

89. Sterling Shepard (NYG-WR)

143 projected fantasy points in 2020

90. Jamison Crowder (NYJ-WR)

142 projected fantasy points in 2020

91. John Brown (BUF-WR)

142 projected fantasy points in 2020

92. Darius Slayton (NYG-WR)

138 projected fantasy points in 2020

93. Anthony Miller (CHI-WR)

137 projected fantasy points in 2020

94. Emmanuel Sanders (NO-WR)

136 projected fantasy points in 2020

95. Tyler Higbee (LAR-TE)

176 projected fantasy points in 2020

96. Zack Moss (BUF-RB)

118 projected fantasy points in 2020

97. Deebo Samuel (SF-WR)

133 projected fantasy points in 2020

98. Duke Johnson (HOU-RB)

115 projected fantasy points in 2020

99. Kerryon Johnson (DET-RB)

115 projected fantasy points in 2020

100. Hunter Henry (LAC-TE)

171 projected fantasy points in 2020

101. Deshaun Watson (HOU-QB)

307 projected fantasy points in 2020

102. CeeDee Lamb (DAL-WR)

126 projected fantasy points in 2020

103. Alexander Mattison (MIN-RB)

111 projected fantasy points in 2020

104. Mike Williams (LAC-WR)

124 projected fantasy points in 2020

105. Golden Tate (NYG-WR)

123 projected fantasy points in 2020

106. Josh Allen (BUF-QB)

304 projected fantasy points in 2020

107. Darrell Henderson (LAR-RB)

107 projected fantasy points in 2020

108. Hayden Hurst (ATL-TE)

165 projected fantasy points in 2020

109. Jerry Jeudy (DEN-WR)

121 projected fantasy points in 2020

110. Marlon Mack (IND-RB)

106 projected fantasy points in 2020

111. Preston Williams (MIA-WR)

120 projected fantasy points in 2020

112. Justin Jefferson (MIN-WR)

119 projected fantasy points in 2020

113. Henry Ruggs III (LV-WR)

116 projected fantasy points in 2020

114. Jalen Reagor (PHI-WR)

115 projected fantasy points in 2020

115. Robby Anderson (CAR-WR)

115 projected fantasy points in 2020

116. Mecole Hardman (KC-WR)

114 projected fantasy points in 2020

117. Carson Wentz (PHI-QB)

298 projected fantasy points in 2020

118. Chris Thompson (JAC-RB)

100 projected fantasy points in 2020

119. Matt Ryan (ATL-QB)

297 projected fantasy points in 2020

120. Boston Scott (PHI-RB)

99 projected fantasy points in 2020

121. N'Keal Harry (NE-WR)

111 projected fantasy points in 2020

122. Tony Pollard (DAL-RB)

98 projected fantasy points in 2020

123. Austin Hooper (CLE-TE)

157 projected fantasy points in 2020

124. Drew Brees (NO-QB)

295 projected fantasy points in 2020

125. Nyheim Hines (IND-RB)

96 projected fantasy points in 2020

126. Jared Cook (NO-TE)

155 projected fantasy points in 2020

127. Curtis Samuel (CAR-WR)

106 projected fantasy points in 2020

128. Breshad Perriman (NYJ-WR)

106 projected fantasy points in 2020

129. Joshua Kelley (LAC-RB)

92 projected fantasy points in 2020

130. Sammy Watkins (KC-WR)

104 projected fantasy points in 2020

131. Rob Gronkowski (TB-TE)

152 projected fantasy points in 2020

132. Ryquell Armstead (JAC-RB)

91 projected fantasy points in 2020

133. Chase Edmonds (ARI-RB)

90 projected fantasy points in 2020

134. DeSean Jackson (PHI-WR)

101 projected fantasy points in 2020

135. Tom Brady (TB-QB)

289 projected fantasy points in 2020

136. Alshon Jeffery (PHI-WR)

100 projected fantasy points in 2020

137. San Francisco (SF-DEF)

177 projected fantasy points in 2020

138. Sony Michel (NE-RB)

88 projected fantasy points in 2020

139. Michael Pittman Jr. (IND-WR)

99 projected fantasy points in 2020

140. Brandon Aiyuk (SF-WR)

98 projected fantasy points in 2020

141. Hunter Renfrow (LV-WR)

97 projected fantasy points in 2020

142. Allen Lazard (GB-WR)

97 projected fantasy points in 2020

143. Darrynton Evans (TEN-RB)

85 projected fantasy points in 2020

144. Pittsburgh (PIT-DEF)

166 projected fantasy points in 2020

145. Harrison Butker (KC-PK)

166 projected fantasy points in 2020

146. A.J. Dillon (GB-RB)

83 projected fantasy points in 2020

147. Ke’Shawn Vaughn (TB-RB)

83 projected fantasy points in 2020

148. Justin Jackson (LAC-RB)

82 projected fantasy points in 2020

149. Justin Tucker (BAL-PK)

160 projected fantasy points in 2020

150. Parris Campbell (IND-WR)

90 projected fantasy points in 2020

151. Wil Lutz (NO-PK)

154 projected fantasy points in 2020

152. Larry Fitzgerald (ARI-WR)

89 projected fantasy points in 2020

153. Adrian Peterson (FA-RB)

79 projected fantasy points in 2020

154. Baltimore (BAL-DEF)

150 projected fantasy points in 2020

155. Buffalo (BUF-DEF)

149 projected fantasy points in 2020

156. Dede Westbrook (JAC-WR)

87 projected fantasy points in 2020

157. New England (NE-DEF)

148 projected fantasy points in 2020

158. Damien Harris (NE-RB)

77 projected fantasy points in 2020

159. Mike Gesicki (MIA-TE)

140 projected fantasy points in 2020

160. James Washington (PIT-WR)

86 projected fantasy points in 2020

161. Denzel Mims (NYJ-WR)

86 projected fantasy points in 2020

162. Greg Zuerlein (DAL-PK)

144 projected fantasy points in 2020

163. Chicago (CHI-DEF)

142 projected fantasy points in 2020

164. Corey Davis (TEN-WR)

84 projected fantasy points in 2020

165. Matt Gay (TB-PK)

141 projected fantasy points in 2020

166. Cole Beasley (BUF-WR)

84 projected fantasy points in 2020

167. Robbie Gould (SF-PK)

139 projected fantasy points in 2020

168. Randall Cobb (HOU-WR)

83 projected fantasy points in 2020

169. Matt Prater (DET-PK)

137 projected fantasy points in 2020

170. Tyrell Williams (LV-WR)

83 projected fantasy points in 2020

171. T.J. Hockenson (DET-TE)

137 projected fantasy points in 2020

172. Jake Elliott (PHI-PK)

136 projected fantasy points in 2020

173. New Orleans (NO-DEF)

138 projected fantasy points in 2020

174. Minnesota (MIN-DEF)

137 projected fantasy points in 2020

175. Benny Snell Jr. (PIT-RB)

73 projected fantasy points in 2020

176. Kansas City (KC-DEF)

135 projected fantasy points in 2020

177. Ka’imi Fairbairn (HOU-PK)

132 projected fantasy points in 2020

178. Tee Higgins (CIN-WR)

81 projected fantasy points in 2020

179. Los Angeles Rams (LAR-DEF)

133 projected fantasy points in 2020

180. Giovani Bernard (CIN-RB)

72 projected fantasy points in 2020

181. Zane Gonzalez (ARI-PK)

130 projected fantasy points in 2020

182. John Ross (CIN-WR)

80 projected fantasy points in 2020

183. Anthony McFarland Jr. (PIT-RB)

71 projected fantasy points in 2020

184. Laviska Shenault Jr. (JAC-WR)

79 projected fantasy points in 2020

185. Denver (DEN-DEF)

130 projected fantasy points in 2020

186. Michael Badgley (LAC-PK)

127 projected fantasy points in 2020

187. Philadelphia (PHI-DEF)

127 projected fantasy points in 2020

187. Mason Crosby (GB-PK)

123 projected fantasy points in 2020

187. Matthew Stafford (DET-QB)

273 projected fantasy points in 2020

187. Noah Fant (DEN-TE)

133 projected fantasy points in 2020

187. Mohamed Sanu (NE-WR)

78 projected fantasy points in 2020

192. Jamaal Williams (GB-RB)

70 projected fantasy points in 2020

193. Carlos Hyde (SEA-RB)

69 projected fantasy points in 2020

194. Los Angeles Chargers (LAC-DEF)

125 projected fantasy points in 2020

195. Dan Bailey (MIN-PK)

119 projected fantasy points in 2020

196. Tennessee (TEN-DEF)

123 projected fantasy points in 2020

197. Malcolm Brown (LAR-RB)

68 projected fantasy points in 2020

198. Brandon McManus (DEN-PK)

119 projected fantasy points in 2020

199. Kenny Stills (HOU-WR)

76 projected fantasy points in 2020

200. Steven Sims (WAS-WR)

76 projected fantasy points in 2020