Here are the updated next-level rankings of the top 200 potential picks, complete with season-long projected point totals. These projections, which use point-per-reception (PPR) scoring, are adjusted for injury risk, positional scarcity and strength of schedule. For those who sweat the nitty-gritty, you can read more about the methodology here, including how the players are ranked.
This year, we’re also counseling fantasy GMs to avoid the Zero RB strategy, and we’ve again put together the perfect fantasy draft.
1. Christian McCaffrey (CAR-RB)
431 projected fantasy points in 2020
The third-year back had the second-best fantasy season in NFL history last year. McCaffrey earned a ridiculous 471.2 fantasy points, thanks to a league-high 2,392 yards from scrimmage and 19 total touchdowns. He also became the third player in NFL history to record 1,000 or more rushing yards and 1,000 or more receiving yards in the same season. And in 2020, you can expect the Panthers, now with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback and under new head coach Matt Rhule, to rely on McCaffrey again.
Indeed, McCaffrey is the consensus No. 1 pick in fantasy drafts, and appears poised for another standout season. Since he is the projected top running back we can expect him to score around 430 fantasy points, a simple three-year weighted average of the top spot. The top running back scored an average of 391 fantasy points from 2002 to 2019 (six times topping the 400-point mark), while the second-best back has averaged 348 fantasy points.
Plus, McCaffrey has little injury risk (he has never missed a game); is in his prime (he turned 24 in January) and gets a massive workload. He is responsible for more than half (53 percent) of Carolina’s rushes and catches since his rookie season in 2017.
2. Saquon Barkley (NYG-RB)
349 projected fantasy points in 2020
Barkley carried the ball 217 times for 1,003 yards and six touchdowns in 13 games last season. He added 52 catches (on 73 targets) for 438 receiving yards and two touchdowns. A vertical offensive scheme under new Giants offensive coordinator Jason Garrett plus a bolstered offensive line should allow Barkley to have a fantasy season that surpasses either of his first two campaigns.
3. Ezekiel Elliott (DAL-RB)
338 projected fantasy points in 2020
No running back got more carries in the red zone last year than Elliott and only four got more targets through the air, making him a solid contributor to any fantasy squad. Plus, the Cowboys are expected to have the third-best offensive line in the NFL next season, per the game charters at Pro Football Focus.
4. Michael Thomas (NO-WR)
377 projected fantasy points in 2020
Thomas is coming off a record-breaking year in which he set the NFL’s single-season receptions mark with 149. He also led the league in target share, accounting for a third of his team’s passing attempts.
5. Alvin Kamara (NO-RB)
326 projected fantasy points in 2020
Kamara has led the Saints in share of red-zone touches over the past three seasons (33 percent), and he’s been among the league leaders twice in the past three seasons in terms of fantasy points per carry.
6. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC-RB)
307 projected fantasy points in 2020
Edwards-Helaire produced 2,621 total yards and 24 total touchdowns in his last two years at LSU and was highest-graded zone runner in the nation out of 101 players with a minimum of 100 attempts, per Pro Football Focus. That plays well in the Chiefs running scheme, which used a zone-blocking scheme on 70 percent of their rushing attempts in 2019, 15 percentage points above the NFL average.
7. Dalvin Cook (MIN-RB)
291 projected fantasy points in 2020
No longer a threat to hold out for the season, Cook is in a prime spot for 2020. The Pro Bowler produced 1,654 yards from scrimmage and 13 total touchdowns last season for a team that loves running the ball. Minnesota called a rushing play 49 percent of the time last year, the third-highest rate in the NFL.
8. Julio Jones (ATL-WR)
312 projected fantasy points in 2020
Jones has topped 1,300 receiving yards six years in a row and his catch rate on deep throws (46 percent on passes traveling 20 or more yards) last season was the third highest among wideouts with at least 25 deep targets.
9. Davante Adams (GB-WR)
311 projected fantasy points in 2020
Adams has seen more than 110 targets in four straight seasons — and that’s despite him missing four games last year with a turf toe injury. That’s because he and quarterback Aaron Rodgers have tremendous chemistry. Rodgers’s passer rating when he targets Adams over those four years is 109.0, compared to 95.9 when he targets any other Packers.
Aaron Rodgers (2017 to 2019) | YDS/ATT | TD% | Passer rating |
|---|---|---|---|
Passes to Davante Adams | 8.0 | 8 percent | 109.0 |
Passes to everyone else | 7.0 | 4 percent | 95.9 |
10. Patrick Mahomes (KC-QB)
433 projected fantasy points in 2020
Mahomes finished as just the seventh-best fantasy quarterback in 2019 largely due to throwing one or no touchdowns passes in seven of his 14 regular season games. That shouldn’t happen this year, especially with the Chiefs facing three of the worst projected secondaries of 2020 per Pro Football Focus (Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers and New York Jets) and nine below average secondaries overall. As an added bonus, the game against the Falcons occurs in Week 16, typically reserved for fantasy football championship matchups.
11. Miles Sanders (PHI-RB)
267 projected fantasy points in 2020
The 23-year-old showed he was a capable three-down back as a rookie last season, averaging 4.6 yards per carry and 10.2 yards per reception.
12. Tyreek Hill (KC-WR)
306 projected fantasy points in 2020
The speedster missed four games due to suspension last year but still managed to catch 58 of 89 targets for 860 yards and seven touchdowns. From Weeks 6 to 14, which is usually the end of the fantasy football regular season, only four wideouts saw more deep targets (20 or more yards) than Hill.
13. Derrick Henry (TEN-RB)
263 projected fantasy points in 2020
Henry enjoyed a career year in 2019, carrying the ball 303 times for a league-leading 1,540 yards plus 16 touchdowns. The Tennessee coaching staff uses an outside zone scheme that helped Henry produce a success rate six percent higher than average when he ran to the left side of the offensive line and 16 percent higher than average when his run took him to the right side, per Sharp Sports stats.
14. DeAndre Hopkins (ARI-WR)
301 projected fantasy points in 2020
A surprise March trade sent Hopkins to Arizona, where he will be paired with quarterback Kyler Murray and will play alongside Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk. Hopkins’s target share should drop but he will also get to face weaker secondaries such as the Washington Football Team (28th best secondary heading into 2020, per PFF), Carolina Panthers (31st), New York Jets (32nd), Dallas Cowboys (22nd) and New York Giants (27th).
15. Chris Godwin (TB-WR)
298 projected fantasy points in 2020
Godwin finished as the second-highest scoring wideout in PPR leagues last season despite seeing fewer than 20 percent of his team’s targets (121 targets). Teammate Mike Evans also got more red-zone opportunities than Godwin (16 to 13).
16. Allen Robinson (CHI-WR)
291 projected fantasy points in 2020
Robinson led the league in success rate (how often a receiver gets open against the defenders covering him) when facing man coverage in 2019, according to Matt Harmon of Yahoo Sports. Robinson was successful 79 percent of the time he faced man coverage.
17. Austin Ekeler (LAC-RB)
248 projected fantasy points in 2020
Ekeler is a dynamic playmaker who earned PFF’s highest receiving grade among running backs in 2019. Expect new quarterback Tyrod Taylor to lean just as heavily on Ekeler out of the backfield. During Taylor’s time as a starting quarterback in Buffalo (2015 to 2017), he threw to his running backs more than 18 percent of the time, per data from TruMedia — 10th-most among quarterbacks in that span.
18. Kenny Golladay (DET-WR)
281 projected fantasy points in 2020
Golladay caught passes from three different quarterbacks in 2019 and still managed to break the 1,000-yard plateau with 11 touchdowns. Plus, he saw the second-most end zone targets (14) last year.
19. Travis Kelce (KC-TE)
279 projected fantasy points in 2020
The top fantasy tight end surpassed 1,000 receiving yards for a fourth straight season and continues to rack up the red-zone targets. Kelce hasn’t ranked outside of the top six tight ends for most red-zone targets in a season since 2015, and he has been in the top three in each of the past three years.
Season | Red-zone targets | Rank among TE |
|---|---|---|
2014 | 11 | 16th |
2015 | 10 | 14th |
2016 | 16 | 6th |
2017 | 19 | 3rd |
2018 | 24 | 2nd |
2019 | 19 | 1st |
20. Kenyan Drake (ARI-RB)
241 projected fantasy points in 2020
After joining the Cardinals in Week 9, Drake saw his fantasy output soar from 9.5 to 19.7 points per game in point-per-reception leagues. He averaged better than 25 points per game in Weeks 15 and 16, typically reserved for the fantasy football semifinal and championship rounds.
21. Mike Evans (TB-WR)
278 projected fantasy points in 2020
Among players with at least 50 targets last season, only three saw a higher average depth of target than Evans (15.1 yards past the line of scrimmage). Only D.K. Metcalf saw more targets than Evans in the end zone (14).
22. Joe Mixon (CIN-RB)
238 projected fantasy points in 2020
Mixon’s name was called 18 times inside the 5-yard line in 2019 and he scored seven touchdowns in those chances. Only two other running backs, Cook and McCaffrey, had more touches in those situations.
23. James Conner (PIT-RB)
234 projected fantasy points in 2020
An injury-riddled season in 2019 limited him to 10 games but the entire Pittsburgh Steelers offense is poised to rebound with Ben Ben Roethlisberger back under center.
24. D.J. Moore (CAR-WR)
267 projected fantasy points in 2020
Carolina’s first-round pick in 2018 had four games with at least 100 receiving yards in 2019, plus he was one of five players to make at least four plays of 50 or more yards last year.
25. JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT-WR)
263 projected fantasy points in 2020
Pittsburgh backup starting quarterbacks Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges threw 54 catchable balls to Smith-Schuster last season, one of the lowest rates among receivers with at least as many targets as Smith-Schuster (70), per data from Sports Info Solutions. Starter Ben Roethlisberger, by comparison, threw him a catchable pass 87 percent of the time from 2017 to 2018.
26. Jonathan Taylor (IND-RB)
223 projected fantasy points in 2020
27. Amari Cooper (DAL-WR)
256 projected fantasy points in 2020
28. Adam Thielen (MIN-WR)
248 projected fantasy points in 2020
29. George Kittle (SF-TE)
257 projected fantasy points in 2020
30. Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE-WR)
248 projected fantasy points in 2020
31. Todd Gurley (ATL-RB)
214 projected fantasy points in 2020
32. Cooper Kupp (LAR-WR)
246 projected fantasy points in 2020
33. Nick Chubb (CLE-RB)
212 projected fantasy points in 2020
34. Josh Jacobs (LV-RB)
208 projected fantasy points in 2020
35. Robert Woods (LAR-WR)
239 projected fantasy points in 2020
36. Chris Carson (SEA-RB)
206 projected fantasy points in 2020
37. Calvin Ridley (ATL-WR)
234 projected fantasy points in 2020
38. Zach Ertz (PHI-TE)
244 projected fantasy points in 2020
39. Aaron Jones (GB-RB)
197 projected fantasy points in 2020
40. Keenan Allen (LAC-WR)
224 projected fantasy points in 2020
41. A.J. Brown (TEN-WR)
223 projected fantasy points in 2020
42. David Johnson (HOU-RB)
192 projected fantasy points in 2020
43. Leonard Fournette (TB-RB)
190 projected fantasy points in 2020
44. Courtland Sutton (DEN-WR)
217 projected fantasy points in 2020
45. D.J. Chark (JAC-WR)
217 projected fantasy points in 2020
46. Lamar Jackson (BAL-QB)
367 projected fantasy points in 2020
47. Mark Ingram II (BAL-RB)
186 projected fantasy points in 2020
48. Tyler Lockett (SEA-WR)
213 projected fantasy points in 2020
49. Terry McLaurin (WAS-WR)
211 projected fantasy points in 2020
50. Mark Andrews (BAL-TE)
228 projected fantasy points in 2020
51. David Montgomery (CHI-RB)
181 projected fantasy points in 2020
52. D.K. Metcalf (SEA-WR)
201 projected fantasy points in 2020
53. Melvin Gordon (DEN-RB)
174 projected fantasy points in 2020
54. Raheem Mostert (SF-RB)
171 projected fantasy points in 2020
55. DeVante Parker (MIA-WR)
195 projected fantasy points in 2020
56. Dak Prescott (DAL-QB)
353 projected fantasy points in 2020
57. Stefon Diggs (BUF-WR)
192 projected fantasy points in 2020
58. T.Y. Hilton (IND-WR)
191 projected fantasy points in 2020
59. Kareem Hunt (CLE-RB)
166 projected fantasy points in 2020
60. Jarvis Landry (CLE-WR)
187 projected fantasy points in 2020
61. Darren Waller (LV-TE)
212 projected fantasy points in 2020
62. Tyler Boyd (CIN-WR)
185 projected fantasy points in 2020
63. Devin Singletary (BUF-RB)
160 projected fantasy points in 2020
64. Cam Akers (LAR-RB)
159 projected fantasy points in 2020
65. Julian Edelman (NE-WR)
181 projected fantasy points in 2020
66. A.J. Green (CIN-WR)
181 projected fantasy points in 2020
67. Marquise Brown (BAL-WR)
180 projected fantasy points in 2020
68. Russell Wilson (SEA-QB)
341 projected fantasy points in 2020
69. Tarik Cohen (CHI-RB)
154 projected fantasy points in 2020
70. Michael Gallup (DAL-WR)
175 projected fantasy points in 2020
71. Le’Veon Bell (NYJ-RB)
153 projected fantasy points in 2020
72. Phillip Lindsay (DEN-RB)
153 projected fantasy points in 2020
73. Marvin Jones (DET-WR)
170 projected fantasy points in 2020
74. James White (NE-RB)
148 projected fantasy points in 2020
75. Evan Engram (NYG-TE)
196 projected fantasy points in 2020
76. J.K. Dobbins (BAL-RB)
143 projected fantasy points in 2020
77. Antonio Gibson (WAS-RB)
139 projected fantasy points in 2020
78. Brandin Cooks (HOU-WR)
158 projected fantasy points in 2020
79. Jordan Howard (MIA-RB)
139 projected fantasy points in 2020
80. Kyler Murray (ARI-QB)
328 projected fantasy points in 2020
81. Matt Breida (MIA-RB)
138 projected fantasy points in 2020
82. Ronald Jones II (TB-RB)
137 projected fantasy points in 2020
83. Christian Kirk (ARI-WR)
153 projected fantasy points in 2020
84. Will Fuller (HOU-WR)
153 projected fantasy points in 2020
85. D’Andre Swift (DET-RB)
134 projected fantasy points in 2020
86. Latavius Murray (NO-RB)
134 projected fantasy points in 2020
87. Diontae Johnson (PIT-WR)
149 projected fantasy points in 2020
88. Tevin Coleman (SF-RB)
127 projected fantasy points in 2020
89. Sterling Shepard (NYG-WR)
143 projected fantasy points in 2020
90. Jamison Crowder (NYJ-WR)
142 projected fantasy points in 2020
91. John Brown (BUF-WR)
142 projected fantasy points in 2020
92. Darius Slayton (NYG-WR)
138 projected fantasy points in 2020
93. Anthony Miller (CHI-WR)
137 projected fantasy points in 2020
94. Emmanuel Sanders (NO-WR)
136 projected fantasy points in 2020
95. Tyler Higbee (LAR-TE)
176 projected fantasy points in 2020
96. Zack Moss (BUF-RB)
118 projected fantasy points in 2020
97. Deebo Samuel (SF-WR)
133 projected fantasy points in 2020
98. Duke Johnson (HOU-RB)
115 projected fantasy points in 2020
99. Kerryon Johnson (DET-RB)
115 projected fantasy points in 2020
100. Hunter Henry (LAC-TE)
171 projected fantasy points in 2020
101. Deshaun Watson (HOU-QB)
307 projected fantasy points in 2020
102. CeeDee Lamb (DAL-WR)
126 projected fantasy points in 2020
103. Alexander Mattison (MIN-RB)
111 projected fantasy points in 2020
104. Mike Williams (LAC-WR)
124 projected fantasy points in 2020
105. Golden Tate (NYG-WR)
123 projected fantasy points in 2020
106. Josh Allen (BUF-QB)
304 projected fantasy points in 2020
107. Darrell Henderson (LAR-RB)
107 projected fantasy points in 2020
108. Hayden Hurst (ATL-TE)
165 projected fantasy points in 2020
109. Jerry Jeudy (DEN-WR)
121 projected fantasy points in 2020
110. Marlon Mack (IND-RB)
106 projected fantasy points in 2020
111. Preston Williams (MIA-WR)
120 projected fantasy points in 2020
112. Justin Jefferson (MIN-WR)
119 projected fantasy points in 2020
113. Henry Ruggs III (LV-WR)
116 projected fantasy points in 2020
114. Jalen Reagor (PHI-WR)
115 projected fantasy points in 2020
115. Robby Anderson (CAR-WR)
115 projected fantasy points in 2020
116. Mecole Hardman (KC-WR)
114 projected fantasy points in 2020
117. Carson Wentz (PHI-QB)
298 projected fantasy points in 2020
118. Chris Thompson (JAC-RB)
100 projected fantasy points in 2020
119. Matt Ryan (ATL-QB)
297 projected fantasy points in 2020
120. Boston Scott (PHI-RB)
99 projected fantasy points in 2020
121. N'Keal Harry (NE-WR)
111 projected fantasy points in 2020
122. Tony Pollard (DAL-RB)
98 projected fantasy points in 2020
123. Austin Hooper (CLE-TE)
157 projected fantasy points in 2020
124. Drew Brees (NO-QB)
295 projected fantasy points in 2020
125. Nyheim Hines (IND-RB)
96 projected fantasy points in 2020
126. Jared Cook (NO-TE)
155 projected fantasy points in 2020
127. Curtis Samuel (CAR-WR)
106 projected fantasy points in 2020
128. Breshad Perriman (NYJ-WR)
106 projected fantasy points in 2020
129. Joshua Kelley (LAC-RB)
92 projected fantasy points in 2020
130. Sammy Watkins (KC-WR)
104 projected fantasy points in 2020
131. Rob Gronkowski (TB-TE)
152 projected fantasy points in 2020
132. Ryquell Armstead (JAC-RB)
91 projected fantasy points in 2020
133. Chase Edmonds (ARI-RB)
90 projected fantasy points in 2020
134. DeSean Jackson (PHI-WR)
101 projected fantasy points in 2020
135. Tom Brady (TB-QB)
289 projected fantasy points in 2020
136. Alshon Jeffery (PHI-WR)
100 projected fantasy points in 2020
137. San Francisco (SF-DEF)
177 projected fantasy points in 2020
138. Sony Michel (NE-RB)
88 projected fantasy points in 2020
139. Michael Pittman Jr. (IND-WR)
99 projected fantasy points in 2020
140. Brandon Aiyuk (SF-WR)
98 projected fantasy points in 2020
141. Hunter Renfrow (LV-WR)
97 projected fantasy points in 2020
142. Allen Lazard (GB-WR)
97 projected fantasy points in 2020
143. Darrynton Evans (TEN-RB)
85 projected fantasy points in 2020
144. Pittsburgh (PIT-DEF)
166 projected fantasy points in 2020
145. Harrison Butker (KC-PK)
166 projected fantasy points in 2020
146. A.J. Dillon (GB-RB)
83 projected fantasy points in 2020
147. Ke’Shawn Vaughn (TB-RB)
83 projected fantasy points in 2020
148. Justin Jackson (LAC-RB)
82 projected fantasy points in 2020
149. Justin Tucker (BAL-PK)
160 projected fantasy points in 2020
150. Parris Campbell (IND-WR)
90 projected fantasy points in 2020
151. Wil Lutz (NO-PK)
154 projected fantasy points in 2020
152. Larry Fitzgerald (ARI-WR)
89 projected fantasy points in 2020
153. Adrian Peterson (FA-RB)
79 projected fantasy points in 2020
154. Baltimore (BAL-DEF)
150 projected fantasy points in 2020
155. Buffalo (BUF-DEF)
149 projected fantasy points in 2020
156. Dede Westbrook (JAC-WR)
87 projected fantasy points in 2020
157. New England (NE-DEF)
148 projected fantasy points in 2020
158. Damien Harris (NE-RB)
77 projected fantasy points in 2020
159. Mike Gesicki (MIA-TE)
140 projected fantasy points in 2020
160. James Washington (PIT-WR)
86 projected fantasy points in 2020
161. Denzel Mims (NYJ-WR)
86 projected fantasy points in 2020
162. Greg Zuerlein (DAL-PK)
144 projected fantasy points in 2020
163. Chicago (CHI-DEF)
142 projected fantasy points in 2020
164. Corey Davis (TEN-WR)
84 projected fantasy points in 2020
165. Matt Gay (TB-PK)
141 projected fantasy points in 2020
166. Cole Beasley (BUF-WR)
84 projected fantasy points in 2020
167. Robbie Gould (SF-PK)
139 projected fantasy points in 2020
168. Randall Cobb (HOU-WR)
83 projected fantasy points in 2020
169. Matt Prater (DET-PK)
137 projected fantasy points in 2020
170. Tyrell Williams (LV-WR)
83 projected fantasy points in 2020
171. T.J. Hockenson (DET-TE)
137 projected fantasy points in 2020
172. Jake Elliott (PHI-PK)
136 projected fantasy points in 2020
173. New Orleans (NO-DEF)
138 projected fantasy points in 2020
174. Minnesota (MIN-DEF)
137 projected fantasy points in 2020
175. Benny Snell Jr. (PIT-RB)
73 projected fantasy points in 2020
176. Kansas City (KC-DEF)
135 projected fantasy points in 2020
177. Ka’imi Fairbairn (HOU-PK)
132 projected fantasy points in 2020
178. Tee Higgins (CIN-WR)
81 projected fantasy points in 2020
179. Los Angeles Rams (LAR-DEF)
133 projected fantasy points in 2020
180. Giovani Bernard (CIN-RB)
72 projected fantasy points in 2020
181. Zane Gonzalez (ARI-PK)
130 projected fantasy points in 2020
182. John Ross (CIN-WR)
80 projected fantasy points in 2020
183. Anthony McFarland Jr. (PIT-RB)
71 projected fantasy points in 2020
184. Laviska Shenault Jr. (JAC-WR)
79 projected fantasy points in 2020
185. Denver (DEN-DEF)
130 projected fantasy points in 2020
186. Michael Badgley (LAC-PK)
127 projected fantasy points in 2020
187. Philadelphia (PHI-DEF)
127 projected fantasy points in 2020
187. Mason Crosby (GB-PK)
123 projected fantasy points in 2020
187. Matthew Stafford (DET-QB)
273 projected fantasy points in 2020
187. Noah Fant (DEN-TE)
133 projected fantasy points in 2020
187. Mohamed Sanu (NE-WR)
78 projected fantasy points in 2020
192. Jamaal Williams (GB-RB)
70 projected fantasy points in 2020
193. Carlos Hyde (SEA-RB)
69 projected fantasy points in 2020
194. Los Angeles Chargers (LAC-DEF)
125 projected fantasy points in 2020
195. Dan Bailey (MIN-PK)
119 projected fantasy points in 2020
196. Tennessee (TEN-DEF)
123 projected fantasy points in 2020
197. Malcolm Brown (LAR-RB)
68 projected fantasy points in 2020
198. Brandon McManus (DEN-PK)
119 projected fantasy points in 2020
199. Kenny Stills (HOU-WR)
76 projected fantasy points in 2020
200. Steven Sims (WAS-WR)
76 projected fantasy points in 2020