The Chicago Bears, last week’s second pick based on the surging play of quarterback Justin Fields, played well against the Atlanta Falcons before losing 27-24 on a 53-yard field goal inside the final two minutes. That resulted in our first push of the season. As expected, though, Fields was dominant on the ground once again, rushing for 85 yards and a touchdown and throwing for another touchdown as well, although he came out of the weekend with a shoulder injury.
We also cashed in last week’s player prop due to another unfortunate circumstance. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is back in concussion protocol after taking a third-quarter sack in Sunday’s loss to the New Orleans Saints. He left the game with 159 passing yards, easily cashing under 232½ tickets and running our player props record to 6-2.
Hopefully you grabbed some Dallas Cowboys futures last week. I pointed out that their Super Bowl and NFC conference championship odds appeared wonky when compared to those of the Minnesota Vikings, considering the Cowboys were 1½ point favorites on the road last week against those same Vikings. Those odds have certainly changed after Dallas demolished Minnesota, 40-3, and the Cowboys might not have those sort of enticing Super Bowl prices again.
Best bets record: 10-12-1
Player props record: 6-2
Picks were made against the consensus point spreads as of Tuesday morning; odds that have since changed have been updated in bold type, but picks are locked in at the earlier odds.
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders (-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Atlanta Falcons team total under 19½ points. For the game, the pick is Commanders -4, but it’s not a best bet.
The Commanders are starting to command respect around the league after first stopping the Philadelphia Eagles’ perfect season in Week 10 and then clawing above .500 with a 23-10 victory over the hapless Houston Texans on Sunday. Quarterback Taylor Heinicke is getting a lot of the credit, but it’s the defense that is sparking the surge. Since Heinicke took over for the injured Carson Wentz in Week 7, the defense is holding opponents to seven fewer points per game than expected based on the down, distance and field position of each play, per data from TruMedia. Before that, the defense was saving just 1.1 points per game, on average.
Washington’s defensive front, featuring Jonathan Allen (6½ sacks), Daron Payne (6½ sacks) and Montez Sweat (six sacks), should be able to dictate terms at the line of scrimmage against an Atlanta pass-blocking unit that is ranked 23rd by Pro Football Focus. Opponents are scoring 0.6 points per drive against Washington on drives when the Commanders get at least one sack, a fraction of what opponents score when there are no sacks on the drive (two points per drive). As long as Washington can keep generating heat, the Falcons should struggle to put points on the board.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3½) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Cleveland Browns +3½
This point spread jumped out at me as soon as I saw it. Look at these teams’ common opponents, and you will see why I think the Browns are undervalued and the Buccaneers are overvalued.
Both teams failed to cover the spread by four points against the Falcons. The Browns covered by 3½ points against the Carolina Panthers while Tampa Bay was decimated by Carolina, 21-3, as 13-point favorites, failing to cover by 31 points. Cleveland covered by 3½ points against the Baltimore Ravens, a team Tampa Bay failed to cover against by seven points. The Browns also covered by 7½ points against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who upset the Buccaneers 20-18 despite the latter having been installed as a massive favorite. In almost every instance, Tampa Bay was woefully mispriced, and I think that is the case again this week.
I am comfortable with the Browns +3 on the point spread; anything less, and I would instead look at the money line. Full disclosure: I grabbed the Browns +148 on the money line last week and added more at +144 on Sunday.
Added more Browns +148 vs TB in Week 12. Circa at +3 which equates to a +131 money line. The point spread equiv of +148 is +3½ -115.
— Neil Greenberg (@ngreenberg) November 17, 2022
I have this game as basically a pick 'em
The plays above represent our best bets of the week because our analysis shows their value is the most lucrative compared with what we expect to happen on the field. Below, you will find against-the-spread picks for all of the games on this week’s schedule. However, trying to pick every game is something of a fool’s errand. The house wins so often partly because bettors try to make too many plays when the odds aren’t in their favor. Keep that in mind when evaluating the remaining games from the Week 12 slate.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-9½)
Thursday, 4 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Dallas Cowboys -9½
Note: I do not like this number so far past the key number of 7 but recent injuries to the Giants make it difficult to back them. Unless you have a very strong feeling that Cowboys will dominate, I would skip taking a side here.
New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings (-2½)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. | NBC
Pick: New England Patriots +2½
Cincinnati Bengals (-1½) at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -1½
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-13)
Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Miami Dolphins -12½ (This number has since moved up to Dolphins -13)
Baltimore Ravens (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +4
Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks (-3½)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -3½
Los Angeles Chargers (-4½) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Los Angeles Chargers -4 (This number has since moved up to Chargers -4½)
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers (-9½)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. | Fox
Pick: San Francisco 49ers -9½
Los Angeles Rams at Kansas City Chiefs (-14½)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. | Fox
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -14½
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. | NBC
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -7
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (-2½)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. | ESPN
Pick: Indianapolis Colts -2½