The team occupying the home dugout on Independence Day at Nationals Park could look across the diamond at the visitors and think, “Man, wouldn’t it be nice to be them someday?” The Cincinnati Reds might not have baseball’s best roster, but at the moment they have baseball’s best vibes, not to mention the breakout star of the summer, the fleet and fascinating Elly De La Cruz.
But it’s important to note that as much of a comet as De La Cruz has become — and he was mesmerizing as he went 4 for 4 and played sparkling defense at third base in Tuesday’s 8-4 Cincinnati victory — part of this Reds revival is another rookie, Spencer Steer.
On Tuesday, Steer went 4 for 4 with a walk, a run driven in and a run scored. A year ago, he was in Class AAA with the St. Paul Saints, as a minor league outfielder and a member of the Minnesota Twins organization yet to make his major league debut. His arrival in Cincinnati came via a trade for Tyler Mahle, a right-hander who made four starts for the Twins down the stretch (and five more this season before undergoing Tommy John surgery). As Tuesday’s crowd of 30,434 dispersed for burgers and beers and the boom-boom-boom of fireworks, Steer had an .886 OPS — nearly 50 points higher than De La Cruz’s. He has helped drive an afterthought of a crew into first place in the National League Central as it has won 18 of its past 22 games.
The question for the Nationals’ brass this month: How can we find our Spencer Steer?
It’s possible July will be — far and away — the most important month of 2023 for the Nationals. It is for certain the month in which they will take a player whom they will count on to be integral to their future with the second pick of the draft, which starts Sunday. It might be the month in which the sale of the club by the Lerner family advances if, in fact, the new Qatari investment into Monumental Sports makes Ted Leonsis’s bid more financially viable.
And it’s the third straight July in which the Nats could reshape some of their roster — and therefore their potential for the future. The trade deadline is Aug. 1. There isn’t a clubhouse that can avoid its effects.
“We’ve got some guys that are thinking about it already,” Manager Dave Martinez said. “We’ve got some guys that love it here. I always have to tell them: ‘Hey, it’s part of the game. You can only control what you can control.’ ”
There isn’t the weight of 2022, when Juan Soto’s status as a star and his nonresponse to a $440 million contract offer essentially suffocated the Nats for a month. There isn’t the time-to-face-reality look in the mirror of 2021, when Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and any other piece of a recent World Series champion that wasn’t nailed to the floor was shipped out.
What remains, though, is opportunity, and it’s important to a club that wants to win sooner rather than later — not in small part because that would make it more difficult for whoever owns the club to choose new leadership in the front office, where General Manager Mike Rizzo has reigned since 2009, and the dugout, where Martinez has managed since 2018.
The Soto megadeal of last season was emotionally draining and organizationally restorative. But its enormity overshadowed the fact that the Nationals did nothing else with other movable pieces. There wasn’t anyone of enormous value. But the year before, aging pitcher Jon Lester brought Lane Thomas, who could have been an all-star this summer. Struggling reliever Brad Hand brought Riley Adams, a serviceable backup catcher. Series-clinching closer Daniel Hudson brought Mason Thompson, who still might be a solid bullpen arm.
So everything can — and will — be explored.
The most intriguing trade chip may be Thomas, the right fielder who doubled and hit a sacrifice fly Tuesday to leave him hitting .301 with an .856 OPS and a team-leading 14 homers. He is under team control for two more years, which increases the caliber of prospect he could bring in return.
There are some who believe Thomas has already become important in the Nats’ clubhouse, essential to what they do. There also are some who believe Thomas is currently the best version of himself, meaning the Nationals are in position to sell high. It’s a tough one but one that’s at least worth looking into.
The easier person to part with would be left-hander Patrick Corbin, the only Nat on the active roster who was with Washington when the trade deadline meant “Who’s coming in?” instead of “Who’s going out?”
“You just try to show up every day and play hard,” Corbin said Tuesday. “Really all you can do. If you’re worrying about that, I don’t think it’s the right thing to do.”
Corbin’s résumé says he could start or come out of the bullpen and help a team win a World Series. But after allowing six runs in five innings against the Reds, his ERA is back up to 5.13, his walks plus hits per inning pitched is 1.59, and batters are hitting an astonishing .308 against him. He has four or five more starts before the trade deadline. He would have to pitch better — and Rizzo would have to find a trade partner who is willing to deal with the fact that Corbin is due more than $35 million next year.
Figure out the finances. What matters in these hypothetical deals is who would be coming back and how they would help this process speed up. Third baseman Jeimer Candelario should be the surest candidate to depart because the combination of his solid defense, his potential for pop — he has 12 homers and an .816 OPS — and the fact that he’s signed only for this season for $5 million makes him attractive. Candelario wasn’t signed to be part of the long-term solution. He was signed to be flipped for someone who might be. So flip him.
That amounts to the easy one, and if anyone would take Dominic Smith or Ildemaro Vargas, they should be easy decisions, too. What’s harder: relievers Kyle Finnegan and Hunter Harvey, who could be helpful to the Nationals if they’re ready to win in 2025 but can become free agents the following year. If the phone rings on either, the Nats have to answer.
Further complicating matters is the fact that only eight teams entered Tuesday more than seven games out of a wild-card spot. The Braves, Rays and Rangers are in and will want to add. But what about the entire American League Central, where only the Twins are above .500? Or the high-payroll, high-expectations, low-performance Mets and Padres? Are they buyers or sellers? Directions are still to be determined.
But the Nats’ lineup that took the field on the Fourth of July shouldn’t be the same as the one they field on the fourth of August. There is an opportunity to replace players who won’t be here next year anyway with some who will. This rebuild isn’t over. Far from it. It’s in progress, so more progress must come this month. There’s a Spencer Steer out there.