SAN FRANCISCO — Elon Musk’s $44 billion deal to buy Twitter is moving along at breakneck speed — but before all the boxes are checked and the deal is finalized, there is still a risk it could fall apart.
He has outlined his plan to finance the deal by taking loans from banks — and funding about $21 billion with his own equity.
Here are the risk factors the deal still faces.
Twitter’s stock price fell Wednesday to close at $48.64. That’s well below the purchase price — $54.20 per share — that Musk is set to pay for the company. Analysts said that indicates some investors were spooked the deal could fall through.
Twitter shareholders will get to vote to approve the deal, so Musk needs support from many of them.
By Thursday, after Twitter reported earnings that showed a growing number of users, the stock was up slightly.
Musk said he plans to fund about $21 billion of the deal with his own equity. Part of that will come from his significant stake in electric car company Tesla, where he serves as CEO, as collateral for the deal.
But Tesla’s stock dropped off steeply in price the day after Musk’s deal to acquire Twitter was announced. The drop carved $100 billion from the stock, in turn leading to a hit to Musk’s fortune. And it could jeopardize the financing for the deal if it drops too low.
Investors have worried about how much Musk is willing to risk because he could be sacrificing Tesla stock — which has performed exceedingly well — for the relatively underperforming Twitter.
Tesla’s stock was still trading down more than 12 percent Thursday from its closing price Monday.
The company’s stock similarly plunged more than 10 percent two years ago, after Musk tweeted that “Tesla stock price is too high imo,” using shorthand for “in my opinion.”
Musk, who has more than 88 million followers on Twitter, is a prolific poster on the site, sharing everything from updates on his rocket company to popular memes.
He’s also known for posting somewhat controversial or market-moving items that have gotten him into trouble with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The terms of his deal to acquire Twitter allow him to tweet about his acquisition “so long as such tweets do not disparage the Company or any of its Representatives.”
A person familiar with the dealmaking process, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe confidential matters, said the clause only applies when Musk is tweeting or commenting about the deal itself, and therefore negative comments about Twitter outside of that do not violate the terms.
He has tweeted about the company many times since the deal was finalized, expressing support for encrypting private messages and saying, “Let’s make Twitter maximum fun!”
He’s also made jokes, such as tweeting: “Next I’m buying Coca-Cola to put the cocaine back in.” He followed it up by tagging the company in a tweet and saying, “Oh hi lol.”
Next I’m buying Coca-Cola to put the cocaine back in— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 28, 2022
But some of his tweets have concerned Twitter employees and researchers who study harassment on social media.
Musk elevated conservative criticism of two executives at Twitter, and other users quickly piled on — calling on Musk to fire one executive or using racist language to describe her. Musk’s tweets have a singular power to unleash mobs against people with much lower profiles.
It does not appear Musk’s tweets so far have violated the terms of the deal, though they have created some concern from workers and others.
A relatively low split fee
The terms of the deal include a $1 billion termination fee, which either Musk or Twitter would have to pay each other if they pull out of the deal for specific reasons.
Analysts say that fee, which is not unusual for a deal this size, is not large enough to prevent either party from walking away.
As part of the terms of the deal, Twitter cannot seek out other buyers, but it can entertain offers that may come in. If the company does get a better offer, it would probably have to pay the split fee. Musk could be called upon to pay the fee in specific circumstances, including if his funding doesn’t come through.
Musk could change his mind
Musk seems motivated to buy Twitter — he took a large stake in the company, contemplated joining its board, lined up a backup plan should his first bid fail and outlined funding for the deal.
But the billionaire hasn’t always followed through with his grand plans — or they have had mixed results.
Most famously, he tweeted he had funding secured to take Tesla private at $420 a share. The SEC later fined him $20 million.
Musk offered to help Thai children stuck in a cave by developing a small submarine. It wasn’t ultimately used in the rescue, and some accused Musk of being a distraction. Early in the coronavirus pandemic, he promised to ship more than 1,000 ventilators to hospitals. Many of the machines he sent were noninvasive devices that can aid in coronavirus treatment but that typically don’t work for the sickest patients unless they are converted into more advanced machines.