Analysis

Trump’s early-state poll problem

The polls nationally have narrowed. But the polls in the states that matter more in the GOP primaries are actually worse for him.

By Aaron BlakeFebruary 3, 2023
Analysis

Why the Chinese spy balloon case isn’t as simple as ‘just shoot it down’

The situation is not nearly as simple as the "shoot it down" crowd might lead you to believe.

By Aaron BlakeFebruary 3, 2023
Analysis

Two years after Jan. 6, Trump is still promoting violent rhetoric

The former president has employed suggestive rhetoric before. But the message he promoted to his social media followers this week was strikingly direct.

By Aaron BlakeFebruary 2, 2023
Analysis

George Santos’s shady campaign money, explained

Let’s run down what we’ve learned about his potential legal liabilities and financial issues.

By Aaron BlakeFebruary 1, 2023
Analysis

Timeline: Biden’s retention of classified documents

What we know so far about where and when the documents were discovered, and when they were disclosed.

By Aaron BlakeFebruary 1, 2023
Analysis

Nikki Haley’s 2024 prospects

Polls showed she was the rare Trump administration official who was well-regarded on both sides of the political spectrum. Now come some hard decisions.

By Aaron BlakeFebruary 1, 2023
Analysis

The Sotomayor and Kagan retirement question

With Democrats' hold on the Senate tenuous, some argue that at least one of the liberal justices should retire. If they did, it would be extraordinarily unusual.

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 31, 2023
Analysis

The historic support for George Santos’s resignation

Nearly 8 in 10 want him out (including 7 in 10 Republicans). About the only politician who exceeded that this century was former Illinois governor Rod Blagojevich (D).

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 31, 2023
Analysis

Trump’s opening volley at DeSantis doesn’t make much sense

Trump is criticizing the Florida governor for closing down his state during the pandemic, though it pursued an ambitious reopening — and earned his praise at the time.

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 30, 2023
Analysis

The crimes Trump could be charged with in Fulton County, Georgia

District Attorney Fani Willis says charging decisions are "imminent." Here's what could be on the table for Trump — or his allies.

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 30, 2023
Analysis

A retrospective on the right’s Paul Pelosi conspiracy theories

Newly-released footage should quash speculation about the assault. But the Pelosi episode shows how many on the right are all too easer to spread innuendo and debunked claims.

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 27, 2023
Analysis

How the Ilhan Omar committee vote compares to Marjorie Taylor Greene’s

Given McCarthy’s claim that he’s simply applying the new standard set by Democrats, it’s worth running through a comparison of the two situations.

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 27, 2023
Analysis

Senate Democrats had a good 2022. The 2024 election could be brutal.

Democrats beat history by holding the Senate and actually gaining a seat. That will be exceedingly difficult in 2024, given how the map looks.

By Aaron Blake and Nick MourtoupalasJanuary 26, 2023
Analysis

The GOP’s big risk in legitimizing Marjorie Taylor Greene

What does it mean for Republicans to promote her as a face of the party? And what do voters think of the congresswoman?

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 26, 2023
Analysis

GOP gives the Freedom Caucus the keys to the car

The Freedom Caucus is a small portion of the House GOP. But thanks to newly announced committee assignments and spots on key panels, it will be the face of the party.

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 25, 2023
Analysis

The plot thickens on George Santos’s biggest problem

Santos’s campaign amended his campaign finance filings. But the changes still don't clear up the questions surrounding his potential financial improprieties.

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 25, 2023
Analysis

Classified documents show gap in how partisans criticize Trump, Biden

A poll asked Republicans, Democrats and independents about their views on whether the two leaders handled documents appropriately.

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 24, 2023
Analysis

William Barr is still misleading about the Mueller report

The former attorney general has distanced himself from former president Donald Trump in some ways. But when it comes to perhaps his most high-profile controversy, old habits die hard.

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 23, 2023
Analysis

How bad a candidate was Kari Lake? This bad.

A new study of Maricopa County shows how many Republican voters election deniers lost in 2022 — and how many crossed the aisle to vote for Democrats.

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 23, 2023
Analysis

The most intriguing line in the Supreme Court leak report

Though the report stated it couldn't determine who leaked the draft opinion that overturned Roe, it seemed to arrive at another, pretty significant conclusion without providing evidence.

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 20, 2023