* Winter weather advisory for far north and west suburbs *

12:30 p.m. — Advisories scaled back

The National Weather Service has removed much of the winter weather advisory in western parts of the area. It remains in effect in northwest Montgomery, northern Fauquier, and western Loudoun counties as well as places north and west of there.

10:10 a.m. — Wintry threats waning

We’re still many hours away from any meaningful precipitation, but it now seems likely that wintry weather potential is considerably reduced, even to the north and west. And given relatively mild road temperatures, icy travel is not expected to be a significant issue.


10 a.m. temperatures across the region. (Weather Underground)

A look at temperatures across the area this morning tells much of the tale. While these readings are unlikely to go much higher, and they may dip a bit with the onset of precipitation, the trend continues to be a warmer one for the storm.

There could still be a few snowflakes or sleet pellets this afternoon, although it appears most of the precipitation waits until it has warmed aloft to the point where it is rain. We should stay fairly dry through the late afternoon or sunset, with rain becoming more likely this evening and picking up late evening through overnight. Some pockets of freezing rain may continue to be a threat north and west, but they now appear more isolated than widespread, with most of the local concern in northern Md. or north.

It also seems possible the warmth surge tonight will be a bit more than anticipated earlier. Recent models are pushing 50 degrees to around the Interstate 95 corridor, with warmer southeast. Just a brief surge before the cold pushes in behind the front.

We’ll update again this afternoon as we continue to monitor.

From 5:00 a.m...

TODAY’S DAILY DIGIT

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

4/10: The worst weather holds off until after dark. Small wins are important, too!

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Wintry mix developing, turning to rain. Highs: Mid-to-upper 30s.

Tonight: Rain, with some icing continuing northwest. Lows: Mid-30s to Around 40.

Tomorrow: Turning much colder. Snow showers? Highs: Mid-30s to mid-40s, then dropping.

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FORECAST IN DETAIL

It’s a weekend, so there’s a storm around. That said, if you have things to do, today should still offer plenty of moments. The weather may try to hold off until we get closer to sunset, at least the kind that is too bothersome to deal with. Tonight and tomorrow seem like good times to hang out inside. And then things are fully real by Sunday night into Monday. If real means teeth-chattering.

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Today (Saturday): Some snowflakes could flutter in the afternoon. If so they are largely conversational, although we may end up seeing a brief period of light snow mixing with sleet and rain this afternoon or into early evening. Temperatures seem likely to be near or above freezing for much of the local area, although a coating is possible. High temperatures are in the mid- and upper 30s. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: The heaviest precipitation likely comes after dark and into the overnight. It should be mainly a cold rain, but some sleet and freezing rain is possible north and west (maybe mainly well north and west, but check back) of Interstate 95 into the evening. There could be a brief surge into the 40s near the city and south or east before colder air comes rushing back. Other places likely stay in the 30s through the night. The speed of the storm should keep flooding to a minimum, but there may be some isolated instances as totals reach 1 to 1.5 inches of rain. Much colder air is inbound near sunrise. Confidence: Medium

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Tomorrow (Sunday): Temperatures are in the mid-30s to mid-40s (northwest to southeast) around sunrise, and perhaps below freezing area-wide by early afternoon. That’s a strong front! It’ll bring gusty winds along with, sending wind chills into the teens. A few snow showers or squalls can’t be ruled out in this kind of pattern, either. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: Winds continue to roar into the night and temperatures are still plummeting. This means wind chills are on their way to the single digits above and below zero. The coldest air we’ve seen so far this winter, and it won’t feel too nice. Under mostly clear skies, lows end up reaching a range from about 5 to 15 across the region. Confidence: Medium


Wind chill forecast for Monday morning from the NAM model. (Capital Weather Gang and Pivotal Weather)

A LOOK AHEAD

Winds continue to whip on Martin Luther King Jr. Day (Monday) and temperatures stay frigid. Wind chills are likely to peak no higher than the single digits and teens, with temperatures only reaching highs around 20 to the mid-20s. Confidence: Medium

Coming off similar lows to Monday morning, mainly in a range of about 5 to 15 degrees, highs edge slightly higher but remain frozen. It should be mainly upper 20s to lower 30s or so. If we’re lucky, the city may crack freezing. Winds are down and skies are rather sunny. Confidence: Medium

SNOW POTENTIAL INDEX

A daily assessment of the potential for at least 1 inch of snow in the next week, on a 0-10 scale.

2/10 (): Weekend storm is almost all rain locally, but some flakes may start it off. No significant snow threat ahead. It is midwinter, though.