* Wind advisory from 11 a.m. to 7 p.m. today | Wind chill advisory 10 p.m. today to 11 a.m. tomorrow*

11:30 a.m. — Winds gusting near 40 mph, temperatures and wind chills poised to plunge

Wind gusts are cranking to near 40 mph with temperatures falling into the 30s. Short-term modeling as shown below drops the DMV into the 20s by late afternoon, into the teens this evening, and some spots into the single digits overnight. Factoring in the wind, we’re headed for negative wind chills late tonight into tomorrow morning.


NOAA's High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model shows temperatures continuing to plummet through this afternoon and tonight. Animation runs from noon today to 4 a.m. tomorrow. (StormVistaWxModels.com)

9:20 a.m. — Winds picking up, temperatures falling

The winds have started to pick up, gusting 20 to 30 mph from the northwest. They’ll ramp up to near 50 mph late morning through afternoon, as temperatures free-fall into the 20s. In addition to the wind advisory today, the National Weather Service has issued a wind chill advisory starting at 10 p.m. today through 11 a.m. tomorrow, for wind chills of minus-5 to minus-15. The advisory warns: “Frostbite and hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and gloves."

TODAY’S DAILY DIGIT

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

1/10: Fleeting early-morning warmth is quickly blown away by fierce winds and free-falling temperatures.

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Blustery and cold! Temperatures falling into the 20s.

Tonight: Frigid and windy. Lows: 7-12, subzero wind chills.

Tomorrow: Bitingly cold and still gusty. Highs: Upper teens to low 20s.

View the current weather at The Washington Post headquarters.

FORECAST IN DETAIL

If you thought we’ve had some chilly days this winter, you ain’t seen nothin' yet! Beginning by midmorning, the coldest blast of the season sends our temperatures tumbling through the day, with winds gusting to near 50 mph. A few wet spots could turn slick as we fall into the 20s this afternoon, with subzero wind chills likely tonight. Blustery cold sticks around tomorrow, before warmer weather starts to make a comeback midweek ahead of our next system.

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Today (Sunday): It’s as warm as it’s going to be for a while if you wake up early enough this morning, with maybe a few flakes mixing in as the rain exits to our east. But then big changes start to arrive, perhaps before you finish your morning coffee, as an Arctic front comes through. Early-morning temperatures near or past 50 quickly drop through the 40s and 30s during the mid- to late-morning under mostly cloudy skies. Meanwhile, sustained winds increase to 20 to 25 mph from the northwest late morning through afternoon, with gusts of 40 to 50 mph that could knock down tree limbs and power lines. Skies turn partly sunny by afternoon, but temperatures plummet into the 20s with wind chills in the teens and a stray flurry or snow shower possible. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Wind chills dip into the single digits by around sunset, as temperatures continue to free-fall through the evening and overnight with clearing skies. We’ll see the coldest night of the season thus far, with lows down to the teens and single digits. Factoring in winds from the northwest near 20 to 25 mph with higher gusts, overnight wind chills sink to around minus-5 to minus-15. Confidence: Medium-High


Forecast wind chills drop below zero by late tonight. (The Washington Post)

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Tomorrow (Martin Luther King Jr. Day): It’s a good day to do some chores around the house if you have the day off, as I can all but guarantee you won’t want to be spending much time outside. Monday will probably end up in the running for coldest day of the winter, with highs only in the upper teens to low 20s despite mostly sunny skies. Winds continue from the northwest at around 20 mph with gusts near 30 to 40 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: It’s another frigid night, but not as biting this time as winds gradually relax during the evening and overnight. We’ll have no problem dropping back down into the lower teens and single digits again under clear and starry skies, Winds are still out of the northwest, but diminishing to around 5 to 10 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Lucky for us, this cold blast is fairly transient, with temperatures starting to moderate by Tuesday. We’re still well below normal, mind you, but much more manageable with highs in the upper 20s to mid-30s and light winds. High pressure holds on for mostly sunny morning skies, before our next approaching system sends us increasing clouds by late afternoon or evening. Skies turn mostly cloudy Tuesday night, which, along with light winds from the south, helps keep temperatures fairly steady, in the upper 20s to low 30s. Confidence: Medium

What Arctic blast? We’re back in the warm sector on Wednesday as winds turn breezy from the south, ahead of our next system approaching from the west. Skies are mostly cloudy with highs near or past 50, as rain chances return by the afternoon into evening. Confidence: Medium

SNOW POTENTIAL INDEX

A daily assessment of the potential for at least one inch of snow in the next week, on a 0-10 scale.

2/10 (): No specific snow threat for now, but a few subtle signs that something could develop sometime Thursday through Sunday.