The high-resolution NAM model shows a variety of precipitation types across the DMV tonight. (WeatherBell.com)

* Winter Weather Advisory 7 p.m. Sunday to 10 a.m. Monday (except Southern Maryland) *

TODAY’S DAILY DIGIT

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of zero to 10.

5/10: Decent midday sandwiched by a chilly start and wintry mix. Overall not a bad February day around here.

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Increasing clouds, and a later light wintry mix. Highs: upper 30s to low 40s.

Tonight: Wintry mix. Lows: low 30s.

Tomorrow: Wintry mix and rain. Highs: mid-30s.

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FORECAST IN DETAIL

We’re paying for those 70s last week, as that chill in the air turns a bit more sinister with the always dreaded “wintry mix” developing by late this afternoon or evening. We’ll fluctuate between wintry mix and rain this evening all the way through Tuesday. With just enough cold air trapped near the ground, icy spots are possible tonight into Monday morning, and Monday night into Tuesday morning, with the most impacts (including possible school delays) expected north and west of the District.

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Today (Sunday): After a chilly start in the teens and 20s, bright skies turn mostly cloudy as we head into the afternoon. In the meantime, the sunshine should help morning temperatures through the 20s into the 30s, before the clouds help cap afternoon highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Much of the day should stay dry, although patchy areas of light wintry mix are possible after 4 p.m. or so. Winds are generally light and out of the south. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: The wintry mix should become steadier during the evening. It may be mostly snow for a brief period early on. A coating up to an inch is possible as evening temperatures fall through the 30s before changing to a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain through the overnight. The District and areas south and east (zone 3 below) may see mainly wet pavement with temperatures dropping to around 32 to 34 degrees, but isolated iciness can’t be ruled out. We’ve got a better chance of icy spots north and west of the District (zones 1 and 2 below) as temperatures dip to around 30 to 32. Confidence: Medium


Forecast of snowy/icy conditions Sunday night into Monday morning. (Capital Weather Gang) (CWG/CWG)

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Tomorrow (Monday): The wintry mix continues into the morning commute. We should remain mainly wet from the District to the south and east, although a few icy spots are possible. Icy conditions are more likely north and west of the District, especially on untreated roads, sidewalks and driveways. Treated roads may stay in decent shape with temperatures near or not too far below freezing, but drivers should be extra careful on bridges, ramps and overpasses. Lighter precipitation should change to plain rain from the District to the south by late morning into the afternoon. While sleet may remain mixed in across our northern suburbs, all of us should get into the mid-30s, minimizing any icy concerns for the afternoon commute. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: The icing risk may increase again north and west of Washington on Monday evening into the overnight, as a wintry mix picks up again and temperatures drop back closer to freezing. The District and points south and east should remain just rainy with temperatures steady in the mid-30s. Temperatures should start to edge higher again toward the early-morning hours, but some icy spots may linger in our northern and western suburbs. Confidence: Low-Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Tuesday morning temperatures may still be just cold enough for a few icy spots in our northern and western suburbs during the early part of the commute. Otherwise, we’re looking at a mainly rainy day, and the rain could be moderate at times, as afternoon readings rise to near or past 40. Rain may continue into the evening before a cold front comes through overnight, finally putting an end to the precipitation and allowing our skies to clear out some. Temperatures are fairly stable, with lows in the mid-30s to low 40s. Confidence: Medium

Higher pressure builds into the area on Wednesday, but it just wouldn’t be a proper frontal passage if we didn’t have to deal with a pesky wind. So, we’ll have that, with northwest winds gusting near or past 30 mph. Other than the wind, it’s a marked improvement, with mostly sunny skies and milder highs reaching the mid-40s to near 50. Confidence: Medium-High

SNOW POTENTIAL INDEX

A daily assessment of the potential for at least one inch of snow in the next week, on a zero to 10 scale.

3/10 (): It’s mostly wintry mix and rain the next few days, but snow could dominate for a brief period Sunday evening, when a coating to an inch is possible.