* Winter weather advisory 3 p.m. today to 3 a.m. Monday for western Loudoun, northwest Montgomery, northwest Howard counties and points north and west *
TODAY’S DAILY DIGIT
A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
4/10: Early sun with a bit of rain or sleet late isn’t a total disaster. But definitely downhill from the past few days.
Today: Increasing clouds, chance of late-day rain/sleet. Highs: Upper 30s to low 40s.
Tonight: Rain showers, wintry mix far north and west. Lows: Mid- to upper 30s.
Tomorrow: Becoming partly sunny and breezy. Highs: Upper 40s to near 50.
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FORECAST IN DETAIL
After a decent morning into mid-afternoon, some areas of light rain and sleet are possible late this afternoon into the evening, before a rainy overnight. The weather then turns brighter and breezy for Presidents’ Day, allowing us to focus our attention on the potentially significant midweek winter storm, which looks increasingly likely to bring some accumulating snow late Tuesday night into Wednesday, followed by a wintry mix and then rain.
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Today (Sunday): It’s a mostly clear and cold start, but that’s due to change, at least the “mostly clear” part anyway. Clouds increase late morning into the afternoon as our next system approaches from the southwest, capping highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Areas of light rain and sleet may develop late in the afternoon, but temperatures will be above freezing area-wide. Confidence: Medium-High
Tonight: Most of us should change to just rain during the evening. But our far north and west suburbs may hang on to a bit of sleet or freezing rain into the mid-evening, with perhaps isolated icy spots on untreated surfaces if temperatures briefly dip to around freezing. Overnight, it’s just light rain area-wide with temperatures fairly steady in the mid- to upper 30s. A few spots of fog or drizzle could linger as the showers move out toward morning. A dreary night for sure. Confidence: Medium-High
Tomorrow (Presidents’ Day): The rain should be finished before sunrise with a cold front working through during the morning, but colder air is slow to arrive. So even with an increasingly gusty breeze from the northwest, highs should reach the upper 40s to near 50 as skies turn partly sunny. Afternoon winds could gust near 30 mph. Confidence: Medium-High
Tomorrow night: Skies continue to clear into the overnight, and with the influx of colder and drier air, temperatures are quick to fall after dark. Winds continue from the northwest but lose their punch, as lows bottom in the mid-20s to low 30s beneath partly to mostly clear skies. Confidence: Medium-High
A LOOK AHEAD
On Tuesday, strong high pressure provides partly sunny skies and colder temperatures with highs in the low 40s or so, although with lighter winds, it isn’t so bad. A storm system approaches from the southwest during the evening, and as lows drop to the low to mid-30s, snow should develop overnight or toward morning. Confidence: Medium
Accumulating snow seems increasingly likely Wednesday morning with a few inches possible, probably changing to a wintry mix later in the morning into the afternoon or evening, before changing to rain Wednesday night, with temperatures holding in the 30s throughout. As usual, this transition happens generally from southeast to northwest, with our north and west suburbs holding on to wintry precipitation and temperatures at or below freezing the longest. It’s too soon to get into specific snow amounts and exactly when and where precipitation will change over, but we’ll provide a full update later today. Confidence: Low-Medium
SNOW POTENTIAL INDEX
A daily assessment of the potential for at least one inch of snow in the next week, on a 0-10 scale.
6/10 (↑): Maybe not a lock quite yet, but increasing confidence in some accumulating snow late Tuesday night into Wednesday, before turning to a wintry mix.
Dan Stillman contributed to this forecast.