The NAM model forecasts snow from the District north early Friday and sleet to the south.

Noon - We have released our accumulation outlook and storm timeline

Follow this link for the latest: Snow and wintry mix could cause some trouble for Friday morning’s commute

9:30 a.m. - Winter weather advisory issued

The National Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisory for the region from 10 p.m. tonight until 10 a.m. Friday. The advisory does not include St. Mary’s and Stafford counties, where little or no snow accumulation is expected. The Weather Service is expecting 1 to 3 inches of snow and sleet in the immediate Washington area and 2 to 4 inches in our northern suburbs. We think these numbers may be on the high side and will release our own accumulation forecast around 11 a.m.


(National Weather Service)

Original post from 5 a.m.

TODAY’S DAILY DIGIT

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

6/10: A sunny, cool day is fine, I say, but a snowy night is an increasing fright.

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Mostly sunny and breezy. Highs: 42 to 46.

Tonight: Increasing clouds, with snow or mix after midnight. Lows: 28 to 32.

Tomorrow: Snow exits early. Then cloudy. Highs: 37 to 43.

View the current weather at The Washington Post.

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Enjoy the sun today, as there may be little of it through the weekend. Snow potential is climbing for late tonight into early Friday as a weak disturbance strengthens over the area. Some accumulation is possible, especially from the District north. The weekend is cloudy, and rain and/or snow is likely to develop Sunday.

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Today (Thursday): Sunny skies are pleasant, but a wind from the north around 10 mph makes highs in the mid-40s less comfortable. Clouds should start to filter in by late afternoon from the west. Confidence: High

Tonight: Clouds quickly increase during the evening, and snow or mixed precipitation could start to fall around midnight or shortly after. There is the potential for snowfall to pick up quickly, and despite some initial melting, it could accumulate — even on roads. We’ll release our accumulation map later this morning, but a reasonable first estimate is one to three inches north and west of the Beltway and a coating to two inches elsewhere, where mixed precipitation should lower amounts. Overnight lows are in the upper 20s to low 30s, with light northeast breezes. Confidence: Medium

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Tomorrow (Friday): Snow is likely to taper off rather early in the morning, but clouds remain in place through the afternoon, along with some patchy drizzle. Highs range from upper 30s north to low 40s in the city and south. East breezes remain very light. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: There is a chance for a few more showers, possibly mixed with snow, to develop, but they will be very light, and additional snow accumulation is very unlikely. Light northeast winds prevail, with lows in the low to mid-30s. Confidence: Low-Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Saturday remains cloudy, and a few raindrops are still a risk, especially in the morning hours. Highs are likely to struggle to reach the mid-40s. Overnight lows fall to the upper 20s to low 30s, with a few breaks in the clouds late night. That is about the only chance to see the last sliver of moon along with Venus, Saturn and Jupiter in the predawn eastern skies. Confidence: Medium

Clouds quickly increase Sunday morning, and precipitation is likely to start falling during the afternoon. The exact storm track is still very much in flux and, as such, so is the precipitation type. A track more to the west and north would mean a rainier outcome, but a path to the south would lead to more snow. Daytime highs are about 40 to 45. At night, rain and/or snow probably continues as temperatures eventually fall below freezing as precipitation moves away. The best chance for snow both Sunday afternoon and night is in our colder north and west suburbs. Confidence: Low

Monday clears out quickly as strong northwesterly winds push much colder and drier air across the region. A potent Arctic air intrusion is arriving and is likely to stay much of the week. Highs are only in the 30s. Confidence: Medium

SNOW POTENTIAL INDEX

A daily assessment of the potential for at least an inch of snow in the next week, on a 0-10 scale.

7/10 (): Snow chances have climbed notably for Thursday night into Friday morning but have dimmed some for Sunday.