High clouds filtered the sun today, but temperatures were still able to rise fairly close to normal for highs in the mid-50s or so. Clouds continue to thicken and lower heading into evening as a coastal storm develops and moves our way.

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Through Tonight: A shower or two is possible as soon as the hours after sunset, but odds pick up heading into the overnight. By the near-dawn period, it’s steadier and occasionally moderate to heavy. Lows are largely in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Winds are light from the north and northeast.

View the current weather at The Washington Post.

Tomorrow (Thursday): Although random lulls are always possible, the first half of the day seems likely to face the brunt of the worst of this storm. Rain is heavy at times, which may cause some localized flooding. By midday into the afternoon, that heavier wave of rain should be heading north, and the storm tends to be in a winding-down phase. Highs are mostly in the 40s to around 50, perhaps into the 50s south and east. Winds are out of the east and northeast around 10 mph.

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Pollen update: Tree pollen is moderate at 37.38 grains/cubic meter. Grass and mold spores are low.

Rain: Most things are still on track compared to the detailed update earlier. The Weather Prediction Center has bumped their expectations somewhat, with a widespread 1.5 to 2 inches or so in much of the area, the most north and west of town. Here’s a look at simulated radar the most recent NAM weather model. It shows how the evolution may look. You’ll note this model keeps the onset held off a bit longer than earlier expectations. Given very dry air, it is possible we won’t see much fall until after midnight. Some showers are reaching the surface as close as southeast Virginia, and that activity moves our way this evening.

Radar simulation from the NAM model. (CWG)

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