Simulated radar (actual conditions and timing may differ) at 5 p.m. today from the North American Model (NAM). (Capital Weather Gang and Pivotal Weather/Capital Weather Gang and Pivotal Weather)

TODAY’S DAILY DIGIT

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

4/10: Say goodbye to mild, our spring fling is gone. Say hello to muggy, our summer bummer is on.

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Partly sunny, severe storms possible. Highs: 85-90

Tonight: Chance of an evening shower or storm. Lows: 63-69

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny, less humid, breezy. Highs: 80-85

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FORECAST IN DETAIL

Things change quickly the next two days as the heat and humidity build once again today, with the risk of severe storms later this afternoon. Tomorrow we’ll briefly trend a bit cooler and less humid. The holiday weekend is quite warm with increasing humidity, but showers and storms should be relatively few and far between, so get out and embrace the unofficial start of summer.

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Today (Thursday): South winds pick up this morning and the humidity gradually builds under partly sunny skies. Afternoon highs reach the mid-80s to near 90 as clouds start to pop up, with a decent chance of some strong to severe storms after 3 p.m. or so. Any storms could be capable of damaging wind gusts and dangerous lightning. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: A cold front could bring another shower or storm later this evening with a gusty downpour possible. Winds shift to come from the northwest overnight, pushing clearing skies and drier air back into the region. Lows hold in the mid-to-upper 60s. Confidence: Medium-High

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Tomorrow (Friday): Sunshine is in abundance and humidity is on the low side. Hopefully this soothes the nerves of those battling traffic to get out of town (for those of you lucky enough to be beach-bound, check out the BeachCast below). Winds are rather breezy out of the northwest as highs hold mainly in the low 80s. Confidence: High

Tomorrow night: The night is clear and dry, perfect for seeing the waning moon set in the late evening. Winds calm and lows range from upper 50s to low 60s. Confidence: High

A LOOK AHEAD

Saturday sees warmer, more humid conditions gradually creep back in as the day progresses under mostly sunny skies. Highs are mainly in the mid-80s. Isolated thundershowers are possible toward evening. Overnight lows hold in the mid-to-upper 60s with clearing skies. Confidence: Medium

Sunny skies again on Sunday with plenty of heat and humidity as highs peak in the upper 80s to low 90s. Clouds bubble up in the afternoon with the chance for a few scattered thunderstorms late in the day or Sunday night. Lows Sunday night fall back to the mid-to-upper 60s. Confidence: Medium

There’s still the chance of a shower or thundershower early on Memorial Day Monday, but otherwise not quite as humid. Highs rising to the mid-to-upper 80s should make pools an attractive destination under partly sunny skies. Confidence: Medium

BeachCast (Saturday-Monday):

N.J./Del./Md. beaches — Highs mid-70s to mid-80s, lows upper 50s to mid-60s. Mainly sunny (a few showers/t’showers Sat/Sun evenings). Water temps upper 50s to lower 60s, 1-3 foot waves.

Va./N.C. beaches — Highs mid-80s to low 90s, lows upper 60s to low 70s. Mainly sunny (a few showers/t’showers Sat/Sun evenings). Water temps mid-to-upper 60s, 1-2 foot waves.