Seven-day rainfall projection from the National Weather Service. (National Weather Service)

As we move into June’s second week, the weather pattern in Washington is set to turn wet and considerably cooler than normal. We’ll see waves of rain starting Sunday and continuing into Tuesday, and then another shot of moisture arriving late Wednesday. All of this water raises the risk for areas of flooding at times next week.

The clouds and rain will put a lid on temperatures for the foreseeable future. If you loathe 90-degree heat, there’s none of that in sight. But time at the pool may be limited with the frequent rain chances.

This weekend, Saturday’s the choice for outdoor plans, as rain chances increase during the day Sunday. That said, Sunday may not be a washout, and there may be a window to spend time outside in the morning.

But, especially by Sunday afternoon and night, the combination of high pressure to our east over the Atlantic and low pressure over the Southeast, will funnel a plume of moisture up the East Coast.


The American (GFS) model shows plume of high atmospheric moisture content surging up the East Coast on Monday.

Showers and thunderstorms may be heavy at times, especially between Sunday night and the first half of Tuesday. It will not rain the entire time, and some areas will get hit harder than other. It’s one of these rainfall setups where we may see rainfall amounts vary considerably over small distances.

Models suggest some of the heaviest rain could occur in central Virginia, along and just east of the mountains, where “flooding will be a major concern,” according to the National Weather Service.

A break in the rain is likely between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning, before the next surge.

Models show low pressure coming up the East Coast, almost like a nor’easter, drawing in moisture from the Atlantic Ocean producing a soaking rain Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. If heavy rain from the event Sunday night through Tuesday saturates the ground, the chance for flooding from this coastal system will increase.

Conservatively, two inches of rain could fall between Sunday afternoon and Thursday, but some areas could see significantly more.

Weather models do project a break from the rainy pattern late Thursday into next weekend, but a continuation of cooler-than-normal temperatures — with highs averaging near 80 (the normal is about 84 degrees).


European modeling system 15-day temperature forecast for Washington. (WeatherBell.com)