9:10 AM: D.C. severe threat has decreased

The severe weather threat for the DMV has lessened due to extensive cloud cover and showers that will limit the amount of atmospheric instability. Instead, the highest threat for severe storms, as denoted by an “enhanced risk” area from the Storm Prediction Center, has shifted southward, toward Richmond down to the border between Virginia and North Carolina. The DMV is now in a “slight risk” area for severe thunderstorms later this afternoon, with the main threat being strong winds.

Original forecast from 5 a.m.

TODAY’S DAILY DIGIT

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of zero to 10.

5/10: Heat won’t be excessive, but storms may be on the strong side.

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Mixed cloud cover, scattered showers and storms, some severe. Highs: 88-92.

Tonight: Evening storms. Partly cloudy, muggy. Lows: 72-76.

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy, scattered showers, possible thunderstorm. Highs: 84-88.

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FORECAST IN DETAIL

A warm, humid and unstable weather pattern takes hold today, bringing considerable clouds, showers and then some strong-to-severe afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Some of these storms could deliver heavy rain, damaging winds and hail. An isolated tornado is not out of the question. Cloud cover lingers into tomorrow and Thursday as a frontal boundary keeps shower and storm chances around with moderate humidity. Beyond this, look for a warm and muggy Friday into a weekend with more sunshine, but we can’t rule out an afternoon or evening thunderstorm.

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Today (Tuesday): A partly to mostly cloudy morning, with scattered light showers possible. The afternoon features mixed clouds and some sun, with developing scattered showers or thunderstorms that could continue into the evening. Some storms may include strong gusty winds, downpours and small hail. Highs should reach the upper 80s to potentially the low 90s, depending on the extent of cloud cover. Moderate to high humidity (dew points in the low to middle 70s) makes it feel uncomfortable either way. Rainfall totals vary widely, from just a trace to an inch or more. Light winds from the south, except it’ll get gusty around storms. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: Scattered evening showers and storms with still a chance of a shower overnight under partly cloudy skies as temperatures drift toward lows in the lower to middle 70s — and it is still muggy. Winds light from the south and west. Confidence: Medium

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Tomorrow (Wednesday): Mostly cloudy, scattered afternoon-to-evening showers and storms, still moderately muggy (dew points near 70 degrees), but high temperatures just manage to reach middle to maybe upper 80s. Storms are less likely to be severe but could still generate wind gusts and downpours. Otherwise, light winds blow from the west and northwest. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: Mostly cloudy and still a chance of a shower or storm, especially in the evening. Temperatures drop to lows in the upper 60s in the outer suburbs to the muggy low 70s in the city again. Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD


A thunderstorm closes in.

Thursday should bring partly sunny skies attempting to make a comeback with highs in the mid-80s and slightly lower humidity (dew points mainly in the 60s). However, with the front nearby, we could still see some scattered afternoon-to-evening thunderstorms pop up across the area. Thursday night looks partly cloudy with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Confidence: Medium

Friday features the return of moderate mugginess with mostly sunny skies and highs climbing back into the upper 80s to around 90. A widely scattered late-day shower or thunderstorm is still possible (into the evening, too). Friday night looks partly cloudy and muggy with lows near 70. Confidence: Medium

The weekend looks typical for summer. Partly to mostly sunny skies should prevail as highs reach the upper 80s to around 90 with moderate humidity. Both days run the risk of a late-day or evening thunderstorm. Saturday night may have a few clouds, with lows again in the upper 60s to low 70s. Confidence: Medium