Even while the majority of computer models predict Dorian to remain just offshore Florida, the National Hurricane Center is urging residents not to let their guard down and to continue preparing for an “extremely dangerous” hurricane.
As of 11 p.m. Saturday, the storm was centered 125 miles east of Great Abaco in the Bahamas, and was headed west at 8 mph. The storm’s peak winds are predicted to increase to 155 mph by Sunday morning and, while not explicitly forecast, it’s possible the storm will reach Category 5 intensity for a time.
After models run early Saturday shifted the storm track offshore Florida, some of them run late Saturday shifted it back closer to the Florida coast. Because it would just take a small shift in Dorian’s track for hazardous winds to reach Florida’s east coast, a tropical storm watch was issued for the zone from Deerfield Beach, just north Fort Lauderdale, to Sebastian Inlet, just south of Melbourne.
While most models keep Dorian offshore Florida, the Hurricane Center wrote in its 11 p.m. Saturday advisory that a track near the coast or even landfall in Florida remain possibilities.
“Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force winds are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast by the early to middle part of next week,” the center wrote as a key message in bulletins Saturday. “Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials.”
If the storm makes a close pass to Florida, tropical-storm-force winds could arrive as soon as Sunday night or early Monday. Because the storm is predicted to be a slow mover, effects from wind, rain and storm surge — which is the storm-driven rise in water above normally dry land at the coast — could be prolonged, lingering through the middle of next week.
It seems more likely that northeastern Florida, rather than southeastern Florida, will experience hurricane conditions.
Although the risk of a hurricane disaster from a direct it has decreased some in Florida, it has become more likely that coastal Georgia to the Carolinas will have to deal with serious effects from Dorian by the middle of next week.
“There is an increasing risk of strong winds and dangerous storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina,” the Hurricane Center wrote. But even here, there is large uncertainty in the storm track.
Irrespective of the storm’s ultimate course near Florida’s east coast to the North Carolina Outer Banks — or even inland — significant coastal flooding is likely because of the force of Dorian’s winds and astronomically high or king tides.
Despite the uncertainty in Dorian’s track and its specific impacts along the southeastern U.S. coast, confidence is high that the northwestern Bahamas face a punishing, potentially catastrophic, hit from the storm. A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, and the Hurricane Center projects “devastating hurricane-force winds,” at least 10 to 15 inches of rain (with isolated 25-inch totals) and a “life-threatening” storm surge of 10 to 15 feet in areas of onshore winds. The storm may pass near or directly over the islands of Abacos and Grand Bahama while moving at a slow forward speed, lingering for as long as 24 hours.
Minor fluctuations in the storm’s intensity are forecast through Sunday before a slow weakening trend beginning Labor Day, due to the proximity to land and increasing wind shear. Even so, the Hurricane Center still forecasts 110 mph peak winds as the storm approaches the Carolinas on Wednesday night.
Dorian saw an astonishing rate of strengthening Friday night, with its central pressure dropping 24 millibars in just six hours — plummeting from 970 to 946 millibars. The lower the pressure, the more intense the storm.
Track discussion and implications
The risk of a direct strike on Florida has decreased because the predicted intensity of the high pressure zone that was supposed to push Dorian west into the state has weakened some. As a result, most models show steering currents collapsing as Dorian nears Florida, before it gets scooped up by a dip in the jet stream approaching the East Coast and starts turning north.
However, this collapse in steering currents is so close to Florida that some models continue to track the storm close enough for damaging impacts in parts of the state.
Although most models predict Dorian will remain offshore Florida, a few do bring it inland or come perilously close. And there is time for the models to shift further - either closer to Florida or more out to sea.
Farther north into coastal Georgia and the Carolinas, the forecast is also a nail-biter. Just small differences in where the storm starts to turn north and eventually northeast and the shape of the turn will determine where and whether Dorian makes landfall.
Scenes from the path of Hurricane Dorian
Because it isn’t for another four to seven days before Dorian will make its closest approach to this zone north of Florida, and forecasting the track has large errors so far out, it’s not possible to pinpoint if and where the storm will make landfall and how close it will track to the coast. Scenarios involving a direct hit, a graze and a near miss appear equally likely based on available forecasts. As the Hurricane Center writes: “Residents in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian.”
The shape of the coastline from northern Florida through the Carolinas means there is a risk of significant storm-surge flooding there even if the storm’s center remains just offshore.
Capital Weather Gang’s Andrew Freedman and Matthew Cappucci contributed to this article.