Washington Nationals fans cheer on the team at Nationals Park during the wild-card game Oct. 1 in Washington. (Katherine Frey/The Washington Post)

As Washington hosts its first World Series since 1933, the weather pattern this weekend is a complicated one. But the most trusted forecast models offer relatively good news: Rain is unlikely for Friday’s and Saturday’s games between the Nationals and the Houston Astros.

Conditions during Sunday’s game, if necessary, could be rainy.


Here’s a first look at what we expect for the three games in Washington at Nationals Park:

  • Friday, 8:07 p.m.: Clear skies. First-pitch temperatures near 60, falling into the mid-50s. Chance of rain: 15 percent. Confidence: Medium
  • Saturday, 8:07 p.m.: Partly cloudy skies. First-pitch temperatures in upper 50s, falling into the low 50s. Chance of rain: 10 percent. Confidence: Medium
  • Sunday, 8:07 p.m.: Showers likely. First-pitch temperatures in the mid-50s, falling to near 50. Chance of rain: 60 percent. Confidence: Low-Medium

What about the first two games in Houston on Tuesday and Wednesday? Because Minute Maid Park has a retractable roof, which will be closed, the weather is largely irrelevant. But if you’re in Houston for Games 1 and 2, our friends at SpaceCityWeather.com write that the weather will be magnificent:

These will be a pair of gorgeous days, with cool mornings in the upper 50s (except along the coast), mostly sunny skies, and highs in the upper 70s to possibly 80 degrees. An onshore flow resumes on Wednesday night, which should nudge lows into the mid-60s.

spacecityweather.com

Weather for Games 3, 4 and 5

Friday’s and Saturday’s games at Nationals Park look just fine at this point. High pressure should be in control, with clear to partly cloudy skies and temperatures falling into the 50s.


Forecast weather map shows high pressure over the Washington region Saturday, suggesting calm, dry weather. (National Weather Service)

Your weather app may show rain in the forecast Friday evening. But this prediction is a reflection of the American weather model, which we believe is too fast in its simulation for the development of a storm system in the South on Friday. The model forecasts this system to spread rain into the Washington region late Friday night into early Saturday.

The American model, however, has a bias of sometimes developing and moving storms along too fast. Its forecast of rain Friday night is not supported by other models. Even if that model is right, rain would probably hold until just after the game.

Most other models don’t forecast the storm system in the South to organize until Saturday, before heading almost due north toward the Great Lakes on Sunday, pushing a warm front through the Mid-Atlantic. This warm front could initiate rain in the Washington region during the day Sunday, with the best chance of showers during the evening.


Canadian weather model forecasts showers moving over the Washington region Sunday evening.

Of all the games that might be delayed or postponed, Sunday’s has the highest chance.

The forecast for Friday through Sunday is still in flux and, given the disagreement between models on certain specifics, could still shift substantially. We’ll keep you posted.