11 a.m. — Season’s first snowflakes spotted

We’re seeing quite a few reports of snow flurries in Montgomery County and the District - the first of the season. These won’t amount to anything and will taper by the afternoon, but are surely creating a winter-like mood out there. Temperatures are hovering around 40 degrees with wind chills near freezing.

Original forecast from 5 a.m. (updated)


3/10:💨30-mph wind gusts possible, especially morning and midday. 20s and 30s for wind chills. Not fully sunny, either. A month from now? No problem. But it’s the coldest yet this season, so it requires adjustment!


Today: Windy (feels like 20s/30s), a few flurries. Highs: Mid-40s.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Calming wind. Lows: 20s to near 30.

Saturday: Mix of clouds and sun. Highs: Mid-40s.

Sunday: Quick predawn precipitation? Highs: Mid- to upper 50s.

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Our bodies are having to adjust at a fairly fast clip. A week after our first wind chills of the season hovering in the 30s, now we get to try 20s! At least adjusting to wintry *precipitation* waits a bit. We’re still watching Tuesday for some snowflake potential, but odds aren’t good.

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Today (Friday): Wind chills start in the 20s (some teens well north and west) and may rise into the 30s by midday. Northwest winds headline the morning, especially. A couple gusts around 30 mph are possible. At least it’s more sunny than not, but some clouds periodically pop-up and could spit out a few snow flurries. All the more reason to dress in layers — warm ones. The thermometer, without wind consideration, halts its climb around the mid-40s. Confidence: High

Tonight: The evening features slowly calming breezes, and mostly clear skies. This is a recipe where the atmosphere cools readily. Low temperatures drop into the 20s for most of the region, but could be more like near 30 downtown. Confidence: High

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Tomorrow (Saturday): Cloud levels aren’t certain, but otherwise we have high confidence in a day without much weather worry. It looks dry (rain-free) with high temperatures again mainly in the mid-40s. Dressing in warm layers is advised once more, especially as a bit of a light southerly breeze kicks up a small notch by late afternoon. Upper 40s can’t be ruled out if southerly breezes get cranking earlier than expected. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: A few clouds could mix with our otherwise starry skies (and nearly full moon), and there’s an outside shot of a sprinkle near dawn. A light southerly breezes help prevent us from getting too cold, but it’s still chilly. Coldest spots should dip into the upper 20s, with mid-30s likely around the Beltway. Confidence: Medium-High


Sunday: A sprinkle is possible around sunrise — even a few non-accumulating “conversational” snowflakes might mixing in — but this should be light and pass fairly quickly. Overall, the day ends up fairly comfortable, as clouds may mix with sun most of the time. Thanks to southerly breezes at least in the 10- to 15-mph range pumping in air from a warmer direction, we eye the mid- to upper 50s for high temperatures. Confidence: Medium

Sunday night: Skies may stay mostly clear, even with a dry, rain-free cold front trying to move through. It’s not terribly well-defined, meaning you may not notice it except for a shift in wind direction and possible uptick in some gusty breezes. We’ll keep an eye on it, but overall it looks benign. Low temperatures bottom out in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Confidence: Medium

Sunshine should dominate most of Veterans Day (Monday) with late-day clouds increasing. A strong Arctic cold front approaches from the west, so try to soak up temperatures in the mid-50s to low 60s. These mild days look rare, for the foreseeable future (a week or so). A few raindrops can’t be ruled out near sunset if the front speeds up its arrival. Confidence: Low-Medium

A slight chance of rain possibly mixed with snow at some point Tuesday can’t be ruled out. This is pretty minor even when it comes to rain, so it’s hard to get too excited about it. Temperatures also aren’t certain, but they may fall from the 40s early, into the 30s as the day wears on. The promised, well announced cold air does eventually infiltrate. Confidence: Low


A daily assessment of the potential for at least 1 inch of snow in the next week, on a 0-10 scale.

2/10 (→): Still a very small chance for light accumulation in the region Tuesday. Arriving cold air plus nearby moisture struggle to combine locally, though.